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Link to the discussed if anyone finds it useful. I agree this is mildly positive- would like to see MPs lining up behind it, but I guess they can say anything publicly until it is proved safe https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2021-02-24/158042
Thanks Hank and F&V
Significant discussions or agreements re backing surely should be RNS'd. We have had RNSs stating production agreements are being progressed but that is all. Confidential discussions ongoing shouldn't need RNSing of course.
On pricing , Hank, the example of £50 for a nebuliser may well be £50 at present but if we produce 100,000 treatments and therefore need 100,000 nebulisers every month then I am confident we could either find a way of sterilising the used units or agree a reduced price with the current manufacturer or approach a different manufacturer. It may be that this latter would require some limited further trialing though. Similarly volume and longevity of production will inform costs of the vials.
The production for Covid-19, its variants and future respiratory viruses is potentially a market that would be orders of magnitude larger than the original asthma and COPD exacerbation target intentions. We can't expect the first years worth of purchases by customers to pay for all the 15 years research costs assuming we have a product which was originally developed for for a rather more niche although still important purpose.
Indeed the outcome of the 'At home' arm of the UK trial together with the US Activ-2 may well determine the overall market size for the future. It could be huge but if it is then downward pricing pressures could increase fairly quickly particularly since Interferons cannot be protected by IP. Recent and current panic spending will not last; see NCYT as an example.
If we get the positive results from all the trials that we expect I concur with F&V and Hank that there will be a few suitors and it will most probably then be in everyone's interest for J/V or J/Vs or takeover. The only worry is that a takeover is not a swift option and may delay optimum roll-out. The involvement of a large Pharma or Pharmas will reduce costs of production and enable faster production no doubt which would potentially increase the market size.
Or you could say 'Mr Patient do you want a life saving drug, or 4 hours time with a management consultant from track 'n trace ?'
Whiteboard is free.
Re the potential pricing of SNG001, perhaps it should be considered in the context of the Track and Trace programme which has cost approx £20bn up to now, with a budget of £37bn over the full two years.
Or, perhaps the £100bn forecast for HS2....
Agree with you Hanoihank. Although I take the view that even without EUA (which is obv. very preferred), that will NOT exclude us from further negotiations in the future, it will not signify the 'end'. Thats' my opinion based on the fact that frankly, what are the alternatives for pharmas wanting to dominate the pulmonary space? If you are pharma wanting to improve your pipeine in that area in the next 5 - 10 years then you are going to want a slice of the virus agnostic treatment action. How many other companies have what we potentially have? If it moves quicker to the timelines you've given (which I agree with and hope for), then double quids in. Hoorah!
Now where are our airport plane sleuths when we need them?!
That's an EUA in the US obviously. No chance of it happening here.
The key to unlocking this of course is an EUA, at which point the suitor emerges stage left. To get an EUA I think they will be putting together all the P2 data, Hospital, Home, Activ2, with a spinkling of long covid on top. Maybe a preliminary readout on the P3 as well if possible. I'd put this at mid May. Thereafter things will move very quickly.
Hanoihank, I firmly believe that is the case btu I obv have no proof of this. But yes, Yes, I cannot see how the likes of Merck or AZ or Biogen or any number of other phramas in the pulmonary or IB space have not engaged somehow with Synairgen up to this point. I really can't. We will find out soon enough....
Whats to say that an 'interested party' isn't already involved ? Wonder how a 20 person research spin off from a mid sized UK hospital persuaded Activ that they could deliver ?
Thanks to all who took the time to crunch numbers on potential pricing. However, here's my thoughts - we are behind the curve on this. A takeover would take typically 2-3 months to negotiate (typically), so *assuming* that is where we end up, pricing, upon which negotiations will hinge, will have been firmed up in the past, not the future. On the other hand, if licencing is the route we end up taking, those interested partie(s) - pharma(s) - will have as much input as Synairgen in the pricing, and the research on that will have been deep and meaningful for all involved. All in all, it's an interesting topic but I believe not one that should take up too much of our brainpower at this point. There is not much that we can move the dial on this, and frankly, why would we want to?
Nothing is set in stone, and prices are negotiated, The famous £2k was just RM trying to anchor a price point. Your numbers though are far too low. The cost of the drug has to mcover 10 years of research, this year alone the compny has put up £100m, and this is recognised when negotiating prices with any government. The price is also of course a major determinant of any takeover transaction, so too low and we screw that up. Thre is alo a huge difference between a mass drug taken by everyone, which has to be cheap basically, and a treatment. Drug treatments for acute life threatenig illnesses ca coimmand very high prices. As always the value proposition, ie the customer segment/benefit delivery/price needs to stack up in each case. You can't just look at price. (BTW the inhaler alone is around £50)
If the company saves lives and makes me a shirt load of money bring it on
My long post continued.
A lower price could be negotiated with the government for a long term contract and of course production could be ramped up to and above RM suggestion of I think 100,000 plus per month. I expect us to be able to sell multi-nationally quite readily once authorisation is approved.
Sorry for my ramblings but I am interested in what everybody else thinks on this topic. If we can bring down the price to a few hundred pounds then there is scope for tens of thousands of sales to the general public. Me for one.
Good luck all
I know you have suffered a lot of adverse comment on this board because people think, wrongly in my view that you are de-ramping. However you have gone to the trouble of crunching some numbers and answering questions so thank you.
I am interested in pricing potential and accept that there is the opportunity of differential pricing across different markets. As you imply, the cheaper we can produce, the more competitive we can be in the market. However as in most industries the price of raw materials is only a small fraction of the cost of finished goods and for instance the production of the vials with such a small amount of interferon is going to be a much larger proportion of the cost than for I/V treatments . It is now clear that there are a number of drugs that will be competing. Ours may be the best in its niche but that doesn't mean that we should seek to maximise sale price over the short term. Maximising sale price is not the same as maximising profits of course. Cost efficient production and future proofing will be key.
I consider it likely that one of the reasons SNG001 is not on the Recovery trial is that Horby or whoever was responsible on the UK gov. side thought that the expected treatment price would not be attractive. The posts have shifted since then particularly in America where as we know the US gov. have contracted to buy several expensive mAb treatments at between $1,000 (AZN) and $2000 (Regeneron) a pop.
I have been thinking about this pricing today mostly because of the fall-out that has occurred between Novacyte and the DHSC notified on Friday last week. It appears it is to do with pricing although I may be wrong. The GP shown by NCYT in their latest accounts was something like 85% and I think this was for product supply, machines and tests. Now I am not certain what the proportion of the total cost of a PCR test is the kit since the lab cost will be significant. Also, using GP as an indicator is not very reliable since the recoup of R&D and trial costs need to amortised through the production numbers and lifetime of the product sales . In any event, the relationship between NCYT and government has soured. The media picked up on possibly Matt Han****'s comments and the main take was that certain private companies are seeking to make excessive profits out of government contracts. This is obviously not a good look resulting in a one day 40% SP hit for NCYT..
I suggested back in early March that perhaps we could produce treatments including vials etc for £10 per dose or £140 plus say £10 for the nebuliser. Is this feasible based on say 50,000 per month? If head office and research costs were say £50 per treatment then costs would be £20m per month. If this was the case then we could sell at say £400 per treatment and still make a reasonable profit of £20m per month. This would be a GP of 62.5%.
why are you still here DP.? We know you were a fan and solid contributor and then decided it doesn't work. But why do you keep hanging around.
Is it like the zombies in Dawn of the Dead, milling around outside the Mall - a ghost memory taking them back to the place they were once happiest.
Laugh a minute this place.
No idea , never read the replies. What's was the thread?
DP didn't you get booted out of town on that one ? Or at least you were challenged and disappeared.
>>18% claim on Budeoneside
Do you understand how percentages are calculated?
So wtf then Doc?
In this example
The total value of the deal now stands at $726 million for up to 700,000 doses. AZD7442 is being evaluated in late-stage trials, the company said, adding that it currently does not expect any changes to its 2021 forecasts due to the deal.
Azd7442 is 2x600 mg (one dose is two injections taken at the same session so still one day treatment) and according to the contract it comes down to around $1050 per treatment. That's for about 3000 times more protein produced per treatment vs what is produced for a 14 day treatment course with sng001.
Sorry scinv - I meant DP's 18% claim on Budeoneside. Nothing to do with you but couldn't think of anyone else TL would have kneecapped
In this example actually it is between 1200 mg and 2400mg, pricing comes to $2100 per treatment (these are one off and not daily for x number of days) but actually we are talking about 40000 to 80000 fold more protein than a a single dose of sng as per sng trials (activ is double that). Times 14 doses, that's still about 3000 to 6000 less protein per treatment. Again, this is a good thing for sng.
This is a good thing so I don't know wtf is your problem honestly