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I obviously wasn't the only one that thought the UK Gov't would either fund an urgent P3 or the MHRA would immediately issue EUA following 20 July results. Alternatively I fully expected a J/V with an American pharma to progress further trials and manufacture. First the collation of results and analysis took a long time and then submission to The Lancet for peer review was delayed. Eventually, a decision was made by the company to go it alone and raise cash for a self funded P3. It was clear by then that SNG001 would not be able to save any of the ill people this winter. It may well be that RM's thoughts on price and value prevented any of these options but I don't think this was the only reason. The failure of the company to publicise the home trial was ridiculous and the apparent difficulty in accessing MAP is another very upsetting failure.
As I understand it the UK gov't puts a value per life saved at somewhere between £100,000 and £300,000. Perhaps less for old people. If the extra deaths over winter could have been reduced from c 80,000 to 40,000 and hospitalisation halved, in hindsight we may have been able to get through the winter with much lesser restrictions, government spending and damage to the economy. Decisions could have been made by September by MHRA given that everyone knew by then that the winter was going to be dire. Very depressing thinking about this and what might have been.
It is a real saviour that the vaccines have delivered so quickly but as we all know there will be a continuing problem and further exacerbation next autumn as soon as everyone gets back from holidays and schools and unis go back. This will be worse if variants make the current vaccines less effective. The summer is going to be a busy period for the scientists tweaking the vaccines and re-vaccination will be like painting the Forth Bridge.
Let's all hope that SNG not only flies through the current trials but is able to be made available in volume and at a reasonable price to save lives later this year. Also I am hopeful there will be other treatments, maybe other interferon treatments available to keep people out of intensive care. I am not that hopeful the mAbs will be the answer because they are so specific and most require I/V treatment. They are still unused on shelves in US hospitals according to Janet Woodman.
Good luck to all and keep safe.
Spinnaker
And Not to forget the stockpiling potential
Still feel a buyout will happen in the near future. If you factor in COPD and Asthma to back up these trials at a later date, it’s a no brainier for a big pharma to swoop IMO !
Meelie, Yes your probably right. I do find this hard to stomach given they've spent billions on test and trace and nearly 2 billion on innovation LFD tests alone. I find it hard to believe cost was the underlying factor but unfortunately its all water under the bridge now. 80,000 + poor souls lost to this earth this winter and maybe SNG001 could have saved some or many of those. £160 million would have provided a treatment and some to each one of them at £2k per treatment.
Been discussed many times, £2,000 is not a high price to pay if it works... keeps people out of hospital and ICU's and saves money and health for many (especially US health insurance companies). Just means it will be targeted at those in most need with other health conditions. And if 100k per month is all we can make & sell then the MCAP potential is still huge... i.e. £50 SP target still possible if normal multipliers apply and margin is good.
IF it works!!
Matt.... I don't think the UK Government took their eye off the ball with Synairgen, I think they deliberately threw the ball away after they found out what the cost was..... instead concentrating on off the shelf treatments that cost a few pence.
This won't be an issue in America of course, as their health system is entirely different.
I don't know, there's a big difference of opinion on here. I think 100k is the more realistic target but if it is closer to 1 million then the £50 target will be back in focus for sure!
TipTop must admit i’m Not fully clued up on interferon supplies and manufacture, do you have links to references on what’s involved?
I know, I got carried away a little ;) - a more down to earth 1,000,000 per month @ £350-£500 each would be substantial too if the demand is there. I just think the 100,000 that’s been mentioned often would be a drop in the ocean when considering US,EU and ROW population size and percentage likely to get ill
in the lack of ovaries ever going to be an issue ?
10 million treatments per month?! That's a factor of 100 from what we were initially looking at.
If the demand is very high then I wonder how low the price could be made.. selling 10,000,000 treatments per month at say £250 each would be a huge market cap, maybe worth it to get large volume of sales. Just pondering ... :)
One of the issues at the time must surely have been around Synairgen’s ability (or not) to supply meaningful quantities of the product.
Also, the early comments by RM suggesting a price for SNG001 similar to Remdesivir’s were imho a major mistake.
Matml yes, but that's the nuance some may have missed which was why I mentioned it. It is still a blinding piece though, and says a lot.
Fully agree with you and others that with hindsight it appears to have been a huge mistake not to have progressed this (and other stuff) much sooner, and I hope and expect that they are regretting that (thought hey are unlikely to say so publicly), but then again it is much easier to see these things with hindsight - for instance, at the time we came out of second lockdown many people thought that we would be returning to something like normal. I am not making any excuses for the government, I'm just adding a slightly different perspective.
Anyway - let's hope it's all onwards and upwards from here. Certainly ought to be.
Great find, someone might be answering a few difficult questions if, hopefully when, this gets P3 approval!
Very good find, very clearly stated how great SNG001 is, thanks for posting @Jakman.
Denny, they have approx 4 million shares and the discussion was around companies within their portfolio so of course the discussion was going to be about SNG.
I think the large majority of shareholders expected an EUA after the P2 results given the pandemic. With what has happened subsequently this winter it appears a mistake not to have granted it.
Quite hard hearing someone like that say what we have been thinking for the last 9 months. We should have been EUA'd yonks ago. Our time will come though. Just a shame so many could have been saved.
Really good piece. He said we will find out in April, which we already know.
However to put it in perspective he also says Amati partly funded the phase II and has "helped with" phase III as well, so there is at least a small vested interest ( - I wonder how much? I assume they have a %age of the company...). The whole section is obviously a bit of a put-up job because the "discussion" on therapeutics starts and ends with Synairgen, whereas there are other not dissimilar contenders.
Nevertheless, it is fantastic exposure.
The good doctor saying quite clearly SNG was effectively ignored after phase 2 when we warranted emergency approval and larger study backing.
We didn’t have big Pharmaceutical & political backing but hopefully that’s about to change.
Ideally more than one pharma will come knocking and give us a price we can be happy with. I would be happy to multi-bag with a takeover and have global success if that’s what it takes to stop being overlooked.
Thanks for posting that, Jak. Just a matter of waiting, it seems.
Great find and he even did not say much about US trials
Great piece, I wonder how many deaths would have been avoided if UK had given it EUA last year?
interesting, great find!
https://youtu.be/HoTULGVSEvM
Watch from 18minutes in