London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
To Org 30
Lets not talk at cross purposes. The virus itself is quite stable. Its the same ugly virus that was in existence earlier this year. What has changed is that we have greater visibility on testing numbers and its proven by the 8% of the population in the UK that are thought to have been infected in H1 of this year. This shows that in the first six months true mortality is around 0.85%. What is happening in the second half of the year is that the younger population are getting more infected in the summer and it is now in September getting into the at risk patient groups. This is arising through younger people visiting older people households and hence the desire to stop that kind of transfer. Another factor limiting the rate increase is that older people with sense practice social distancing a lot more than they did before. I believe the numbers will be less than before than in the spring as I believe most people will use masks and will try to look after themselves if they are in the older age groups. This does not stop problems in nursing homes if they are not covid-19 defended.
The UK government is supporting trials for therapies that have the capacity and route to market. They are not just supporting vaccines. I have left a note on the AstraZeneca board to see what they think on any chance of working with Synairgen again. AZ will have no shortage of severely ill patients in clinical trials this time (the cause of the asthma trial breakdown years ago).
I have worked most of my life on innovation in healthcare research. I have last count on how many successes arose from near points of failure. It just might be possible that our biggest UK company may want a therapeutic which can be used for COPD as well as Covid-19 and anything else that is viral and attacking lungs in future. If AZ came back into play the companies know each other well. It will take a good pitch for Synairgen to win AZ over again and just maybe they might give the company a second chance. This is the big deal to put together. This is when a CEO and directors show they deserve the big pay cheques or not. Good science needs good impact follow ups.
@fish That's not what he is saying. Just because there are no announcements it doesn't mean nothing's happening in the background, it means they don't want to announce before they are certain about the approx availabilty they could have and when, assuming ongoing trials confirm previous results.
But what about the people at risk who haven’t got access if they unfortunately catch the virus. Are they going to die so our politicians don’t lose face.
It just appears politicians keep banging on and splurging our taxes on them V2 rocket of vaccines rather than putting real help behind the SNG trials.
Nice post Elsol
In a word yes . Absolutely
There are a complex set of issues here. 1. MHRA and other Reg. Bodies need time to review the second set of COPD safety data recently released ; 2. Governments are really scared to re- publicise the great effectiveness of this intervention to the general public too early in case implementation / commercialisation goes tits up in the worst case scenario eg the product can't be made available to all that need it the most. Big potential egg on face again for the Government after diagnostics disasters and early counter covid criticism about herd immunity. Hence the News Blackout and officials not publicly naming SNG0001 overtly. 3. There will be a number of distribution / licensing or buyout deals already on the table Im sure and the SNG Board would want to make sure THEY have the right deal in place ahead of or in alignment with approvals. 4. I think most educated regulators and scientists know this is very safe and very efficacious.....so soon it will all be clear so sorry for people selling prematurely before the news comes to planet earth.
Org30 it may weaken or it may mutate and become much worse.
If it becomes worse then does the value of Synairgen go up a notch further? Will the Pharma CEO now have to pay a premium and explain to shareholders etc why he didnt buy the company at half the price the motnh before?
I have total respect for many on here including you but I have to say my posts keep getting twisted or totally misquoted and my point lost .
So I’ll take a back seat from now on but to be clear my point about the virus possibility weakening was in the context of why that may have an impact on any potential buy out . I was raising that so people give their views etc . I’m not on here to be a smart arse or sound right etc just to raise points etc and promote debate .
Anyway I’ll watch from the sidelines but I will say that common sense imo is really lacking on here and
no offence but you often find intellectuals who are excellent in detail do often lack it . I’ve been amazed how often my posts have just been misunderstood as the points not realised without me having to explain again and again ..... anyway GLA but the strain re this virus is important .... in many ways .
>>Fact and we know right now the U.K. cases increasing without a high increase in hospitalisations .
Thats completly wrong.
Daily hospitalisations in England have increase from 58 to 275 from 1st to 21st September.
7 day moving average deaths were 8 on 1st Sept and 22 on 21st September.
You are making judgments without knowing basic facts
Unfortunately viruses do not weaken that quickly. There has been mutation sure, which is evidenced by the virus genome but the change is not particularly significant. The only reason imo that we have less deaths currently is that the vulnerable are better shielded currently and the spread is predominantly among younger people who are happy to take their chances as they are much less affected in general. Once, alas it gets into care homes then the death rate will accelerate. Also we will have cross virus infection as we enter the normal flu season. This will hit anyone very hard including young adults and children.
Org 30 the mortality rate depends on the demographic age profile that exists in any particular country and how much diabetes and hypertension that population has. In the UK the mortality rate is 0.85% which approximately 7 times more deadly than influenza. For those individuals over 55 years old will carry 0.849% of that mortality profile. Covid-19 is not ordinary influenza. What has changed in social distancing and the way people work and greater discipline that we have put in place to give a slower rise in deaths that occurred in the spring.
"There is a massive over reaction to this virus, more people are dying from suicide than the virus."
But isn't it likely that virus-related deaths would be a lot higher if it wasn't for the 'massive overreaction'? Sorry to hear about your treatment being delayed. Any delay in treatment is unacceptable even in normal times, imho.
Seb I'm sorry to sound so dismissive but if you're going to repeat and repeat that the virus 'might or might not be weakening then simply it's not worth engaging with you'. You're right, maybe it's weakening, maybe it's not. But there's absolutely no evidence that it's weakening. So why don't we focus on what we do know rather than speculating and ruminating on the unknowns?
DTD, I'm on about the discussions on this board are UK centric, not who SNG may or may not be talking to.
I think people fail to understand why the scientific advisors are concerned and instead simplify it to 'am I likely to die? No'.
If social distancing was eased up, if restrictions were lifted, covid 19 would almost certainly rip through the entire nation pretty quickly. Yes the vast majority would survive and still a large majority would either be asymptomatic or only mildly ill. But we would also see hospitalisations far exceed the number of beds/oxygen/ventilators available and the nhs would be forced to turn away sick people and leave them to die... in their thousands. The number one priority is to not allow that to happen whilst doing a better job this time around of allowing the rest of the (seriously underfunded and under resourced already) health service to run as normal...
Sorry Tony I’m sticking to the facts . We simply do not know if it is as deadly . It maybe it maybe not .
In the USA hospitalisation rates have declined from Aug 1 to current day . Fact . That’s despite cases increasing . Fact and we know right now the U.K. cases increasing without a high increase in hospitalisations . Yep that may change but right now there is no evidence to state what you just did .
There is a massive over reaction to this virus, more people are dying from suicide than the virus. I am part of the vulnerable group but I am more concerned that my cancer treatment has been delayed, this is a much bigger risk to me than the virus.
Parsley : clearly they are not just focused on the UK. This one from the last RNS:
Synairgen is in discussions with a number of regulatory agencies worldwide to establish the regulatory route to the approval of SNG001 as a treatment for COVID-19.
If the sp was at 260p I suspect a lot of these conspiracy theories would not be posted. If the UK won’t take a ‘gamble’ on SNG then I expect another jurisdiction will.
Scinv - I know they have to follow protocols etc. but I do find it disappointing in the extreme that over two months after the preliminary results were published there hasn't been any further news other than the COPD readout, which basically confirmed the COVID-19 readout. It's ridiculous in my view that it takes people (whether Government agencies or scientific peer groups or prospevctive Pharma partners) that long to review a data set in the hundreds in a crises situation.
Meanwhile vaccines (which are even less proven - because Synairgen have data going back years, not just months) are getting pushed on a daily basis. Makes me think there's a hidden agenda here and I don't like it. Meanwhile the SP gets manipulated by MMs, shorters and day traders. I'll give it to the end of September but after that I may move on, because leaving funds here is of no use in this scenario.
The mortality profile in the UK is the same as it was on 21 March 2020.
Org it is the same virus and its just as deadly. It is that complacent view which undermines behaviour towards it.
SNG's 7 directors are 'sitting on' around ~12m shares between them (inc. ~ 8m options). Would think that's quite good motivation not to be 'held up' for too long. Oh, and they will deserve every penny.
>> Or would you spend a fortune taking a risk in 4 weeks
>> the virus is starting to weaken as all viruses in history do
If you want to use historical cases of viruses weakening then take a look at the great Kansas flu of 1918. The first wave was pretty bad. The second wave was utterly BRUTAL and killed far more people than the first. For example in the USA, the 2nd wave killed 10X times more people than the 1st wave. Not much sign of that virus weakening then.
@gkb47 Actually it wouldn't necessarily delay so much actual results or manufacturing but it would delay announcements of above until most details are clear. If that speculation is proven correct obviously.