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Good day all
Moderna has posted a profit too today!
Ubik we are getting a great return given 6.5% of the portfolio is rocketting today. Be real. This is a great day
*have = hate
Sometimes I really have the FTSE / UK markets. NVIDIA rocketing and we get a paltry 2.9%.
No idea why LSE has suddenly removed every capital letter from my last post.
They were all there when I keyed it!
Let's see if this one's the same......
whilst ai is set to be huge, i also sense it's going to be the next investment bubble.
to me, valuations in companies like nvidia are increasingly extrapolating current growth levels and assuming they'll continue for the foreseeable.
as those of us long enough in the tooth to remember the dotcom crash know, nothing lasts forever. and valuations which assume otherwise are - eventually - likely to end in tears.
of course, nobody knows for certain when - or indeed if - any correction will come. so it's a brave investor who takes a bit of money off the table just as everyone else is piling in. and they're unlikely to get the timing right, so they risk criticism & derision when they do it. but personally, i'd like to see smt start reducing its exposure to nvidia. not massively, nor eliminating it altogether. just gradually reducing over the next year or so. sure, nvidia might double, triple, *****uple again, as it did between sept 22 & now. but equally - & history suggests far more likely - people will eventually realise even ai has a finite need for new chips. albeit a huge need.
and by the time that realisation dawns, it'll be too late to man the lifeboats. the dotcom crash was savage. i suspect the great ai boom & bust might also be.
Well up after hours on the earnings report so will boost SMT NAV a little bit.
I wonder how much nvidia results coming out now (6.5% holding) will show confidence in SMT tomorrow...
SP and NAV gap widening once more. Like £1.50 difference!
I must say it is really satisfying seeing success in space exploration and having a tiny part of personal investment in such an exciting company is really amazing.
Tom78 - suspected as much!
When it comes to NAV discounts, I don't think there is a "normal" unfortunately. Just a range - which in SMT's case has fluctuated between about a 5% premium and a 23% discount over the past 5 years.
At the moment, we're roughly in the middle of that range. So I guess you COULD call that normal. But I don't think it is really. The period when the discount was at its highest largely coincided with the period when interest rates were hiked substantially. Now rates look like they've peaked, my guess is the discount will continue to narrow. But it IS only a guess!
Pretty incisive comment from the Trustnet article :)
Read also pointed out that Scottish Mortgage may not be suitable for investors strongly reliant on income or those with a short-time horizon. Similarly, it may not be appropriate for investors preferring a more defensive portfolio or with a value focus.
Same for me Tom78 - as long as the discounts do finally start getting closer!
Aye, I know just a wee tongue in cheek comment. A lot of my other investment trusts are running on historically whopping discounts as well and they are not stuffed full of dross either. Right now I can sit tight and just hope one day the discounts will close as I am sat on many thousands in unrealised market value if discounts return to 'normal' .
Tom78 - I guess it's all relative. At least a consistently rising NAV will normally lead to a stronger share price (eventually).
That said, if the discount to NAV widens, we could be back to square one.
But that discount has also been narrowing in recent months. From about 23% at its worst last summer to just a little over half that currently.
So for the moment, trends are positive.......
Excellent. We can now sell our shares for only a whole pound lower than fair value. Rejoice!
NAV hit 900p. SP hit 800p. Its finally starting to look positive on a consistent basis again.
Yes LLoL, I picked up on that too - almost as if they are moving the goalposts a bit :) Almost everything I read about the trust these days is positive though with the general expectation of globally falling interest rates over the coming years naturally benefitting growth stocks.
Thefrogster - thanks for that link.
Some of their points have already been made by posters here.
But I found the bit about an average holding period of 20 years interesting. Reiterates why the fund is more suited to investors willing to hold longish term (though I’m not suggesting anything like 20 years. Just not for those who might need their capital back in 1 -2 years).
Interesting Trustnet article:
https://www.trustnet.com/news/13403996/when-scottish-mortgage-will-flourish-and-struggle
Littened it used to be 5 years now its 10 years then it will be 15 years as long as it gets people to hold.
Cowen raising doubts over some data they've seen regarding MRNA's RSV vaccine sustainability.
Down 7pc yesterday and another 7% today.
Not sure how they saw the data without MRNA commenting on it first...publication at conference or leak? That's kinda a biggy to have effectiveness wane quicker than approved GSK and PFE ones.
I'd love to buy MRNA if it reaches $60,
Welcome ThePecker.
I guess we all wish we had sold at £15 and bought back in at £6.40, but no one knew where it would stop, I suppose.
I agree it will again get past £15 in the LT, but think this will be quite a number of years in all honesty.
To be realistic that level was reached at the time down to everyone piling their money into it as it was outperforming everything down to beautifully fitting conditions.
Lovely to see the volatility lost in recent months as we emerge into greener pastures, but at £15 I guess we all knew it was a pretty frothy valuation.
Thanks for the honourable mention. I am close to break even now. Within pence! I am not selling yet but will perhaps make an exit the next time it is in a decent profits I once enjoyed! I like you believe it will get there but really not sure if that is months, years or decades!
Yup, keep your Pecker up :)