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These chart experts say a good buy at present .
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMT.LN/overview
Barchart Technical Opinion
STRONG BUY
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Buy with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
Stuartrm, I was simply stating that we have reached that point and that this In my opinion will effect the fluidity of investment in the future.
I mentioned this as it had relevance to the poster before me.
In terms of effect all these things are worthy of consideration (as are the perhaps deeper technicals).
I'm not advocating a situation in which numbers are wiped out as that of course would be of no "benefit", despite (as you state) this being a possibility.
As every world economy depends on citizen to power it, the problem isn't going to particularly improve on any way.
I was simply tempering the recent posters expectations as goes continued appreciable recovery, despite feeling some distance on this is liable to happen nonetheless.
Apologies if it's too simplistic for this forum.
Regarding Walp’s comment that the world just has far too many people in it, even that may be resolved relatively soon by the increasing prevalence of natural disasters and the “ambitions” of Russia/China/Iran/North Korea and/or the “resistance” of Ukraine/USA/Nato to “a changing world order”. Whichever of these groups is right or wrong, or whether the truth is somewhere between, is not a debate for this board but the potential risk of a serious military clash between these political groups is clear to most. It is also clear that whatever “benefits” a resulting population reduction might bring are likely to be outweighed by the accompanying collateral damage. The Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times” has rarely been more apposite than now.
I'm with you on this Ripley94, but the news yesterday re increasing the UK defence input spending we are living in an increasingly volatile world which (imo) is increasingly imbuing volatility on the markets.
Once world inflation is tamed and interest rates are no longer an abject fear to those more inclined towards faster profits, I agree with you things will pick up.
My only reservation is that big bumpy and demoralising knocks may seem increasingly likely in a world that has just far too many people in it.
I had this note copied from here I assumed this time last year , but not among these posts here on that date .
Maybe my friend G sent privately , his sort of trade.
Not a bad return for one year 837p today approx 30%
23/4/23
Definitely Oversold IMHO. Bought £9K today ~648p. Fingers crossed. Growth will come back sometime in next couple of years and when it does SMT will start flying again.
I can understand why someone might buy/sell in short succession with the individual interests in a shares it package like SMT, but not SmT as a conglomerate.
Of course trading in individual investments will follow this pathway effecting the price of SMT ultimately, but SMT is always going to remain a buy in and stay in investment to get the best out of it.
We should see a rebound on Monday (he says cautiously) which I hope (he again says cautiously) underlines the temporary nature of many events creating negativity... Pessimism rules of course...
Notwithstanding any real/perceived S&P correlation, whether you buy, sell or hold is IMHO likely to be influenced by your timeframe more than anything.
Timing the markets consistently is notoriously hard.
I’d also question whether SMT has much correlation to any index, given its near 30% unlisted holdings. That’s kind of been its nemesis over the past 2-3 years!
As soon as the S&P started to roll over, I could not get out fast enough. Was happy with another small profit on the second time. I wouldn't expect sentiment to improve here until the S&P bounces / makes a base. 800 is tempting to buy back in, but I think its a falling knife now.
There is a huge gearing to the S&P in this list.
ASML Holding NV 8.20%
NVIDIA Corp 7.90%
Amazon.com Inc 5.27%
MercadoLibre Inc 5.00%
Moderna Inc 4.73%
PDD Holdings Inc ADR 3.80%
Tesla Inc 3.47%
Ferrari NV 3.16%
Wise PLC Class A 2.40%
Spotify Technology SA 2.36%
Interesting - SMT has bought back into TSMC over the past few days, building a holding of approx 1% so far (£140m).
TSMC's Q1 profits exceeded expectations on "strong AI chip demand" & it expects Q2 sales to jump for the same reason:
www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-set-report-5-rise-first-quarter-profit-strong-ai-chip-demand-2024-04-18/
Assuming Elliott's still in at 5%, I imagine we can expect further fireworks given the recent share price retracement.
Looks likely continued low sentiment for SMT comparatively given the 4.23% loss following the US open. They appear to be particularly negative as concerns the IT although some of it might be due to the recent news of pairing of 10% staffing that suggests Tesla demand downturn?
Ostensibly generalistic stuff down to fears of an expanding middle East conflict... Perhaps the powers that be in Israel might now be threatened with withdrawal of weaponry if they respond against Iran and grow up a little given they struck recently first?
I'm not holding my breathe but am hanging in in there nonetheless....
I really rate Blue Whale and manager Stephen Yiu. However I see the strategies as very different and so SMT makes up ~15% of portfolio and Blue whale ~10%.
Blue whale is very much 'quality growth' vs SMT which is Concept growth. SMT seeks that 1 in 100 revolutionary idea to change the world. Blue Whale is fundamentals driven.
I think the best comparator to Blue Whale is Fundsmith and Stephen would probably agree. Stephen is a younger, hungrier and probably more motivated version of Terry Smith who is nearing the end of his career. Whilst the fund is slightly more volatile than Fundsmith I am encouraged by Blue Whale.
Very different animal to SMT however
Sure, but not worth reading too much into one morning's movement. If you look at performance over one month for example, SMT has outperformed PCT. Though this is equally irrelevant IMHO.
It's the long term trend that counts. For now, PCT has significantly outperformed over 5 & 10 years. So you either switch to PCT if you think this pattern will continue. Or you stick with SMT if you don't.
Most of FTSE 100s shrugged off Middle Eastern threat apart from SMT of course. ATT PCT up as usual no such luck here
* the frogSter. Apologies!
Thefrogter - you're welcome!
Given their interventions elsewhere, I think it unlikely Elliott are in it purely for a short term flip. Quite apart from anything else, they'd have probably bailed already, when the share price nudged £8.94. But you never know.
Meanwhile SMT's buybacks continue apace and volumes will hopefully increase in line with any continuation of the share price drop.
Any investors in Blue Whale here? I'm thinking of swopping out of SMT into Blue Whale that seems to have a similar investment strategy. TIA
Thanks LLoL - I imagine Elliots will be all over the valuations at the moment though. I just hope they're not looking to make a quick buck and flip their holding as this wouldn't be good for the SP short term.
Thefrogster - thanks for that. Though I can't vouch for its accuracy, I've since found the following article on re-valuation frequency, which states: "Valuations for Scottish Mortgage’s private holdings, and all of Baillie Gifford’s trusts with unquoted exposure, are carried out by internal committees with input from an independent third party, IHS Markit. The private holdings are re-valued on a rolling-three-month cycle, with a third of the unlisted holdings valued every 30 days. However, pricing is monitored daily by Baillie Gifford’s private valuations team."
The full article, dating back to June 22 can be found here:
portfolio-adviser.com/are-scottish-mortgages-unquoted-valuations-detached-from-reality/
I remember reading last year (sorry, can't find the article) that SMT revalue a third of the private holdings each month in addition to some adhoc valuations being carried out.
Walp - I can’t comment on SMT’s performance relative to ATT/PCT as I don’t hold or follow either of those.
I suspect SMT’s fairly high proportion of unlisted holdings is still a drag on sentiment. So this might explain part of the disparity. Though the managers have suggested these holdings are regularly re-valued & that this is done independently of the fund managers (& more often than once a year I thought?). Sentiment here could change though, either if one or more unlisted holdings IPO’s. Or when inflation is finally seen to be tamed and rates start to drop, which is then likely to make growth stocks in particular - and shares in general - more attractive compared to cash.
Longer we might hope, LLL.
I must admit to becoming slightly baffled as to the continued distrust in SMT which is still so evident when comparing to the likes of others such as pct and att (both of which having wiped their faces or beyond since the falls of 2021). Sure you are right in that high inflation is continuing to linger, but given that the others have undergone a fulsome recovery (albeit not far in excess of their 2021 peaks, SMT rain somewhat in the doldrums).
I note the nav is currently around -7% and that unlisted concerns (a big wodge) are only fully worth evaluated after 12 months, but most of the portfolio should now have been evaluated?
I'm holding come what may for more recovery to come, however, so just musings. That being said there are still no signs as goes sentiment that SMT are seen as undervalued and a future cracker.
What do you think on this and what are your thoughts concerning such lacklustre continued recovery (much discussed in the past, I know)...
I actually think it’s better in the long run if the Fed & BOE take their time to ensure inflation is properly under control before introducing any rate cuts.
They’ve sometimes jumped the gun in the past, only to see inflation creep back up again.
Guess I’ve a slight vested interest here too! I moved cash savings into long term fixed / base rate tracker accounts around the middle of last year, suspecting rates might stay higher for longer than market consensus at the time.
As for SMT, most of the impact of Elliott’s initial intervention & the boosted buyback scheme feels like it might be priced in by now. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott’s endgame unfolds. Will they be happy to encash their stake within the next few months, assuming they can realise a decent profit? Or are they in it for the longer term, intent on agitating for more radical reform? Answers on a postcard please!
If anything, I think the latest US CPI report will cause nothing more than a temporary pullback. Rates will start to fall at some point - maybe just not as quickly as the market first priced in.
Will probably eat my words, but it's holding up well despite the CPI report from the USA yesterday.
Hi Dart and LoL, looking at 2 year chart, its neither a rising high nor a falling high at moment, on balance its a hold or buy, certainly not a sell