We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi RWT2,
To be fair, it doesn't take much effort, I update my spreadsheet at the end of each month and select the top 2 shares. It takes about half an hour. Very occasionally a share will be at the top of my list 12 months after my initial investment, in that case I will reduce the holding to 5% of my portfolio. I have held FXPO for 12 months, I suspect it may well still be top at the end of this month, I will sell some to reduce my investment to 5% of my portfolio.
I have made on average 20% per annum over the last 7 years which is slightly ahead of the IWFM.
OWLS, thanks for the feedback. I have a large chunk of my portfolio allocated to IShares World Momentum Factors Tracker ETF (IWFM) so am in agreement with the general momentum strategy. I think going for IWFM is less work than your suggestion but very possibly not as successful. It's almost tripled in price since 2014 but not done so well of late. If you want less effort, then maybe this is one for you to look at. The only reason I queried whether you had a "dartboard approach" was selling after 12 months come what may. I know you said this is because you rely on investments for income, but if you have several investments and after 12 months some are still meeting your momentum rules but others aren't but then you sell it regardless i would have thought that negated a lot of your upfront effort. All said and done, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Wishing you well!
RWT2, my strategy is based on momentum investing and is a strategy I have developed over many years. My initial selection is based on momentum over the previous 1,2, 3 or 6 month periods. I have analysed various time periods for holding the shares and 12 months proved to be the optimum. I don't know why it works but it does !
Best current performers are SDRY (181%), FXPO (117%) and DRX (76%). Worst current performers are FRES (-31%) and POG (-29%). Currently SMT is up 11%.
It is quite a volatile strategy (my portfolio was down 30% when the pandemic hit) so I ensure that I don't have more than 5% in any particular company or 10% in any particular sector.
As regards active fund managers I think I read somewhere that 90% of them under perform the market.
I have bought SMT purely based on momentum, I have no idea whether it is a good investment based on other factors.
OWLS - I don't usually post on this board. All my posts have been on Agronomics (ANIC) but I am an SMT holder and saw your post and couldn't help myself commenting. My apologies if this comes across as being facetious - I can assure you it is not meant to be and my comments are genuine.
If I have understood you correctly, your investment strategy is as follows:
Step 1 - Purchase share
Step 2 - Ignore share for 12 months
Step 3 - Sell share irrespective of performance
If I have picked you up correctly, that is absolutely brilliant. It truly makes me smile that 2/3 of your investments make money via this strategy and calls into question the value of any active fund manager (I am almost certain most active fund managers won't make money on 2/3 of their investments).
Is this a recognized strategy? How did you come up with it? Can you logically account for why it appears to be as successful as it is? Is there specific types of stock where you think this is more likely to work or can you more or less take a dartboard approach to it (if I was brave enough i would be minded to take the dartboard approach).
I make profits on about 2/3rds of my investments, I certainly don't hold on to them just because they have made a loss, I hold for 12 months and then sell, whether they've made a profit or a loss.
OWLS, you were talking about people who had bought in since £14 losing money. I'm guessing this wasn't you, therefore what relevance does it have that you need to sell your shares every now and then?
Fact remains that you only crystallize your losses when you sell. If you put yourself in a position where you are having to sell shares/trusts that have gone down in the sort term, you're doing it wrong.
I hold my momentum stocks for 12 months and then sell, even if they have lost money, this works very well for me.
The beta is 1.09, which is not especially high.
Why would you put yourself in a position where you have to sell high-beta growth stock at inopportune timings?
I live off my investments so I have to sell every now and again.
You have an unrealised loss rather than a realised loss but it's still a loss. Basic accounting principles I'm afraid.
Only if you've sold. If you're still holding, you haven't lost any money. And if you hold for a few years before selling, I'll bet you would make a pretty penny.
If you'd been buying dips since it was over £14 you'd have lost a fair bit of money.
Buying dips with the intention to hold the stock for 10+ years is not day trading. It's bargain hunting.
I dont normally think of profit in days so totally agree with you but I am just reflecting on buying at the dips and how that when it bounces straight up again its a nice little win. I am not day trading and dont sell shares generally. Only buy when i feel they are cheap and hold.
I don't think it works like that. Most day traders lose money.
I bought at 1089 last week ;-)
I have made a nice 40p a share on the panic from yesterday. Hold and buy at the dips! This will do well long term. Stop looking at the share price too regularly and reacting.
I’ve only held SMT for a few months and bought in when it was almost @ £12. I’ve been able to average down a bit since. But I look to hold this for 5 years min. Hopefully, it will turn out to be a nice pot of cash.
I have held SMT for years and been to several meetings where I have heard many challenges to the managers' process - particularly when Tesla seemed very dodgy. The managers have always been consistent - increasing automation is changing the investment landscape - buying companies pre IPO can be a good idea - churn is low - costs are low. No flaws that I can see - short term sp swings but over the long term it is an impressive performance.
Just bought a little amount today at a bargain price. Will look back and smile in a few months.
I really depends on what you think it is going to do, it has entered my buy field at the moment but I may wait a little longer
I have bought and sold this trust several times over the years and made handsome profits, but selling it last year (at a profit) was my biggest mistake. When the market dropped due to the pandemic I felt I need to keep some cash and took it from a profitable trust with a view to buying back in……….the share price doubled…..ouch. Bought back in last Nov, seen it go up 30%, down 30%, up 20% and now down 20%. I’ll never sell again, well diversified portfolio; recently had some great stocks gone to market in AirBnB and Stripe.
Remember investibg is about Time not Timing if you are an ordinary Joe like us...
I have been investing here in a PIP since 1993. The price goue up and down like a yoyo. The price rises this last few years have been exceptional.
It is a long term investment. Clearly the retirement of JA may make a difference but I have confidence in the management. Where else to put some of your money?
I am a long term SMT holder since 2008 you really have to bear these short term drop in share price which is market noise for long term gains unfortunately this is the territory with a growth trust like SMT !
Personally , I think the question is whether or not to buy more! Surely an IT with their track record has got to recover - even if it’s more of a long term investment? Only dipped my toe in the water with them last summer (wish I’d got in in the Spring!) and have bought twice more since. I’m expecting to hold for at least 5 years - maybe a lot longer.....