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I also forgot to add that I remain encouraged that directors were happy to buy in at 1.40p - and they have much more information than any PI and would know - I would assume - much more about the Cobre situation.
No psychology from me - check my previous posts - have never said anything bad about this share. Today, it may be tempting, but not much being tempted, not huge volumes but more sells than buys. I bought just over 500,000 recently, and yes I am tempted at this price - but being cautious - worrying about too many eggs in one basket.
Cobre may be a "minor quarter" of SML - but it's the failure of the major client that has in my opinion had a detrimental effect on the share price, and did we not spend much more than forecast at LC? I think re-establishing sales at Cobre should be the priority for the BOD.
We do not know the contract position with major client, although it appears from what we have been told they are in breach. There has also been speculation on the board that we have no funds for litigation, I have posted previously that there is no point in litigation if the other side has no funds to settle, or if our case is not strong and they can tie up the litigation with appeals - which also takes money.
We will possibly know more post strategic review.
And no, not bothered if anyone is interested in my investments - but when I joined an investment discussion forum, I did expect to exchange views - but yes, probably should have done that on the other board, but glad i cancelled the fill order for GGP - dropped a bit today.
Still learning, it seems - psychology.
So we're all supposed to be interested in your investment? Hmmm ....
I have no interest in persuading others to sell - quite the opposite - I am not selling. I have a considerable LTH. This board is full of speculation. I will not post something without solid evidence. Cobre is what provides this company with funding for the other projects - and I truly hope the board can find other clients to replace the problem "major" client. It might actually prove quite easy.
The reason I have cancelled the fill order is my uncertainty that we have reached the bottom, and I think I should spread my risk a bit more widely. I also cancelled a fill order for GGP tonight - I am going to wait to see what the price does tomorrow. I recently posted I has a relatively small SIPP to invest. Will be in 4 aim shares with potential for high growth - and I am accepting the risk that comes along with that.
Interesting post thelearner. You provide some speculation without evidence on something you don't post. You then say you're cancelling a fill order. If I were suspicious it looks like a psychological method to persuade others to sell. Now why would that be? Cobre is just a quarter of what this company is about. It's also a minor quarter as it is just the selling of magnetite tailings. However it is the current income source for SML. Leigh Creek is now up and running but needs to build to maximum income in early 2020.
Now is the time to buy at the current SP. There's no reason to cancel a fill order if you have the funds to fill it. You are unlikely to get a better price with Leigh Creek on the rise and Redmoor entirely owned by SML. It's cheap right now.
It is very hard to find real data on the global Magnetite market using google.
This article from April 2019 https://www.mining.com/web/squeeze-brazilian-iron-ore-disasters-boon-1-5b-magnetite-pellet-project/ alludes to a shortage of magnetite/iron ore due to the mining problems in Brazil with poorly constructed/managed mines and dams.
Hopefully the BOD will be able to find new customers. Researching is hard, but I have continued - I will not post what I have been reading as it's purely speculative, but I think I may have stumbled on something - but I could also be completely wrong - but I am not so confident about getting the $4million soon. Hope I am completely wrong. But what I stumbled on could also resolve itself.
I have a fill order in for tomorrow - I am going to cancel it - in deep enough. I still believe in the company - and hope it all comes good.
im not sure what you are getting at, its a heavy big product for its cost, meaning you need to have either good infrastructure/logistics or be close enough.
CAant really see what the board did wrong with the client other than mentioning the $4mil payment before recieved, the rest is just business, which can go wrong.
How should it have been done? even with hindsight cant see without being unreasonable what could of been changed.
Yes whilst there are numerous uses for magnetite , a its common and b its high mass for relatively low cost.
The Cobre product, as any other product, is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. What efforts are the BOD making to sell the product of which we must now have a very large pile sitting doing nothing? Is it that there is no market or is the BOD not trying hard enough to overcome their poor judgement?
The BOD clearly made a huge mistake over this "major customer" contract, did they not know that the customer could not fulfil their side of the contract because they did not have the required environmental permissions and that if they defaulted we could realistically do nothing about it except jump up and down and cry? How do we (PI shareholders) know that this unknown company had any intention of sticking to it's side of the contract? What has it cost them so far, the forfeited product? Could it be that it is in the defaulter's interest to force our share price down to make a takeover cheap?
Why does the BOD not name this "major customer"?
You know what, i always loved the story of the wind and then sun and who could get the mans coat off.
Maybe rather than a threat we could offer say 50% of what they forfeited back along as they bring their money upfront like the last offer.
More than one way to get what we need.
Slurm, I think our perceived (by the cobre client) inability or desire to enter into litigation with our biggest customer is what might be a barrier to getting this case (and payment) concluded in the short term. Look at brexit, the EU didn't believe Theresa May would take the UK out of Europe without a deal and so were unwilling to 'negotiate' a better deal with us. Boris might seem more determined to follow through with his 'promise' to leave the EU on 31 October 'come what may', 'do or die' and might lead to the EU offering the UK better terms for our exit. JP has a background of concluding big deals so I believe we must back his strategy in getting the deal done. I still think we will get the payment (and a revised contract) in due course, although obviously the 'market' does not!
I would think an intent has no time linked expiry as such. It highlights SMLs direct financial loss and would be the basis for a claim.
I dont think threatening the client will have any gain, if JP thought this I'm sure he would have done so.
As for taking on the legal process it's about the money, SML have limited funds for their projects and dont need a further expense at this time.
If there a fair bit of demand on the copper cement you never know someone may pay for some upfront once they can prove production.
I also think a JV would be slightly negative, but it would safeguard the placing, and LC is big enough now to support a partial JV.
I just hope the leach pads are already or close to being full and ready to capture that coppery goodness.
I believe the current SP is down to the usual AIM over reaction. It's clear to us here in the know that Cobre is still producing income, Leigh Creek is coming online and just needs to pick up speed with the chemical process taking time to reach peak rate early next year. Redmoor is clearly a very good resource just needing time to get going. I can only think the SP is due to short term selling while all gets going. Maybe there's better shares elsewhere. But I don't think there're many companies making money and those that are are already up in value.
Thx Fira, I do agree everything should be directed towards LC delivering soon, maybe JP should don a set of overalls and safety boots and muck in.
I would always prefer a steady climb to a Tsunami and yes some of the SP drop has been self inflicted, which is even more annoying, but i think in a few months time it will be a different picture.
I just dont get the letter of intent from the client and then nothing, its a very weird thing to do and the only outcome is SML's hand has been strengthened should this go down the legal route as this would set a base claim and then costs and losses due to the fulfilment of the payment....I am intrigued by this side of the client.
Interesting to re read the SP Angel valuation from Sept last year even though some circumstances have changed i.e. the lack of payment from the major cobre client. Base case valuation was Redmoor 0.4p, LCCM 1.0p, Cobre 0.4p & Hanns Camp 0.3p, making at total of 2.1p compared to 0.95p close yesterday. A lot of AIM investments are sentiment driven and we seem to have little positivity here at the moment but that can change in a heartbeat, just look around the market. Added 2.4m shares over the past few weeks which might be longer term hold than originally intended but still confident I will make a decent profit on them later this year. Looking forward to the 5.5p, oops 2.5p party....
PS I think the outcome of the strategic review will be positive for the company and its share price and we'll get the $4,065,000 from the major cobre client in due course and we'll all think the BoD are the bee's knees! Enjoy the weekend...
SML has other income from Cobre. It has income starting already from Leigh Creek and building to early 2020. It has proven mining reserves at Redmoor and now owns it in it's entirety. I can't really see the need for the sudden collapse of the SP to below 1p. The market is often very cautious and right now it's too cautious. We're at a very good buy in price for a company with a clear and excellent future.
To me the fundamentals are still good, ok I give in to the fact that at the moment the SP is depressing.
Those terms were used by JP when he believed all the ducks were lining up to deliver good cash flow, LC was going to plan and the customer was a short term issue. Granted now those terms could be considered disingenuous, but I don't believe there was any intent just an excited MD.
The believed news is later than stated on the email, but that was and is the plan, just because it's not here yet (late) doesn't mean anything other than at present it's not been shared to the shareholders.
I'm not sure why you are flabbergasted, I get why the terms were used and I really don't care when I hear about the review because I know unless it includes a JV/nice surprise nothings going to really change. I have been in this share for 3-4 years what's a few weeks/months more. I know people don't like it but patience really is key.
I am sure a review is underway/completed but what level of detail is shared I don't know. It may include redundancies for some at cobra or care, if there are savings to be made.
Let's look at it like this:-
Cobre still contributing, maybe a little more than we think due to commodity prices.
LC will start to turnover in 6-12 months, granted it could be a little longer until we see it adding to cashflow.
Cobre customer may be back, have settled or are still under threat of litigation, if not sorted potentially they could also be liable for the reduced market cap as well as the contract fulfilment, to me this means any settlement would have to be good.
The downsides are a possible further placing if still no resolution, my hope is the SP is way higher due LC.
That's still way better than other aim miners.
So there's my warts and all perspective.
GL
mk and slurm,
I am flabbergasted, I just don’t understand your logic and your reasoning.
How can you possibly say, because the mid August was only mentioned on a personal email and not officially, then you guys accept the review could happen, but then again it may never happen at all, and because there is no release date, that’s also acceptable, no problem at all, we just keep waiting for something, whatever that is.
The fact that an MD maybe allowed to use descriptive “misleading” words, which may have influenced PI’s to invest, that’s also fine. There are no consequences. All is well and good.
Well, that’s not how one run businesses. If you guys are prepared to invest given this framework it’s absolutely fine, because it’s your money anyway. However, I just don’t get your protective and defensive attitude.
Thats right mk.
Toze, the terms juggernaut and tsunami were from JP in his videos, an MD is allowed to use descriptive words/phrases whether applicable at this moment in time or not. Others are allowed to repeat/quote.
It's funny how the people negative about sml at the moment are the ones being personally rude to board members.
I notice Firas post about time of the month has been removed, guess there is a board policeman.
Anyway GL all
Has the market been officially notified of the review mid august. No, it was in a personal email and as such cant be used a concrete evidence of intended release date. So anyone who keeps using this as a reason to dis the company is in my view deramping.
Trout,
So, what is the answer ? Who is ramping ? Who has insinuated a “tsunami of cash” or a “juggernaut” ?
Where is the so called Strategic Review to market ? Monday is 25th August, well past mid Aug date of strategic review, and you dare call me, Redmoor and Fira derampers ? You got all your facts wrong !!! You are The One who is extremely naive !!!
Trout,
You did not answer my question.
Toze, you and Redmoor seem to be the ones that think you have mastered deramping.
I am just pointing out your efforts....