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Bangrak
So your Coal and Gas plays are...?
Whatever your views on the markets, we have to keep the lights on, the lights will only stay on with food going into the power stations, 40-50% of the food used to make electricity in the UK is Gas, there are alternatives but when you look at global Gas & LNG prices (NBP TTF Asian) they are prohibiting countries using it for power generation now, where I live the cost of LNG is now greater than they charge per KWH, we have started to have intermittent blackouts, they are switching to oil. The metal industry uses huge quantities of energy to manufacture metals, and so do cement, paper pulp, and chemicals/fertilizers. Putin will do whatever it takes to keep the prices up, and America will fight with algos attacking oil prices daily.
SP is driven by profit, profit is driven by the price of RH, RH is driven by demand mostly in China with new ICE vehicle production/sales. People/businesses buy cars/vans when they have money and the future looks good. Recessions do not usually result in big-ticket purchases. China is failing in its Zero covid approach and huge bond payments are in default. The reverse is Gas & Coal.
It was no throwaway line that I mentioned "Sentiment is all" just before concluding my post below.
So all these P/E's will efficiently reflect what they've always reflected - of about 3 or 4 earnings?
Who foresaw a world wide pandemic or a major war on Europe's doorstep with threats of it turning into WWIII? Not to mention nuclear weapons threats? Proposing that the market is that efficient and had already factored it in and stocks will not deviate from prior average PE ratios or anything else is kicked into touch by no less a personage than Warren Buffett.
Sentiment sees outrageous changes in the fortunes of stocks (ovetbought/oversold) that do not always follow efficient prognosis of past metrics.
As Warren Buffett puts it:
Buffett's views are clear: “I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.”
Sentiment will twist and turn in the future. But no one knows in what ways. Good luck with marrying all with past comparisons to historic PE ratios from yesteryear.
TTM eps is currently at 30.2 cents. That's about $1.20 with a P/E of 4 or therebouts £1.
I would presume that the current figures are still trailing pending on last official reports.
Thus, 80p looks rather cheap.
But then, on a (ridicolous) P/E of 3 the picture looks rather different.
Right now, market participant are scared. This begins to open a lot of opportunities, not just with SLP. Everyone will have a different take on this, and they are welcome. For my part, I love it when investors run towards the hills. Probably worth waiting a bit longer to see what else ends up in the discount bins. The sale is not over yet.
At SLP at £0.80, a "couple of quid more" is £2.80. Assuming shares outstanding does not change. Stock Price: £2.80. Shares Outstanding: 266,130,788
P/E = Stock Price / EPS
If the P/E is 14, you are valuing the EPS at £0.20
P/E = Stock Price/EPS
14.00 = 2.80/0.20
EPS of £0.20 * 266.13 shares outstanding = earnings of only £53.24m
Last years earnings were £100m. Admittedly with a sky high Rh price
(This is not cash -adjusted)
if £53.24m is accurate, I agree that £2.80 looks ripe with a P/E of 14.
Even £2 with a P/E of 8 on earnings of £65m again not cash adjusted in this market looks best case but what do I know lol
"SLP is worth a couple of quid more- longer term IMO only, but wouldn't like to be drawn on how long"
At today's basket, you would need the market to value this on a pe of 14 or a pe of 8 with Rh at £29k to get this extra few quid, considering it's pe has averaged 3-4 for 6 years it would be difficult to reach unless production is 140k.
"... coincides with an anchored VWAP @ 88.6p..."
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Unimpressed with any longer term moving average price related indicator that relies on a purely day trader's intra day indicator such as the VWAP that is wholly designed for day trading tactics, and only to be used in conjunction with other confirmatory indicators.
It might be volume weighted but tried it back in the day and found it conferred no additional insights to traditional moving average trend prices. I find it unimpressive for long range work, which is the main concern here.
But that's just me. Use it if you find it useful in your work. But it leaves me unimpressed as any kind of specific superior indicator. Never had any inkling to revisit it.
SLP is worth a couple of quid more- longer term IMO only, but wouldn't like to be drawn on how long.
Sentiment is all.
And I view that (sentiment) as designated by a variety of moving average trends - from short term to longer term, to arrive how far momentum is from the predominant trend.
88.3p is the POC on a 3m view and coincides with an anchored VWAP @ 88.6p from the covid crash, maybe watch that area. Palladium has done something interesting but it's not enough to make much difference to the profit here or make this 60%+ attractive. There will be a rise here but not enough to sustain it much past 90-95p (20%). THS is better value, I'm still not in any PGM's. Keep an eye on eye-watering inflation, global recession, much higher energy costs, and repeated china lockdowns damaging prices on anything linked. Funny world now, this is the new normal many didn't see coming.
8million shares bought in the Buy-Back at 89p and I'm pretty sure many were short sold or borrowed. The borrower is now buying back at 79p and reaping the reward. Balancing the books at 10p a time, but he is on a time restraint and has only until the end of July before the 4th quarter figures are out. The Borrowers live in the secret places of quiet old houses; behind the mantelpiece, inside the harpsichord, under the kitchen clock.
They own nothing, borrow everything, and never forget their most important rule: you must never, ever be 'seen' by the human beings.
Interestingly, my IG feed is only showing a single trade volume for both of those events - I wonder if the second trades are transfers between MMs, maybe if there was an agreement for one to accumulate shares for the buy back on behalf of the other acting for SLP? They could maybe acquire the 51,893 easily enough on the open market but several 100ks more difficult? I'm guessing a little here though.
Amazed you got knob through LSE's otherwise puritan censorship.
Interesting trading yesterday with 2 x 200,000 trades both at 88p and both at 9:19 BUT only ONE of these trades was a buyback as the RNS tells us they bought back 251,893 at an average price of 88.35p - The other trade was 51,893 at 89.7p at 14:44 which gives the average of 88.35p (£176,000 + £46548 = £222,548 / 251893 ). The question is who bought the other 200,000 at 9:19? ...... this is similar to the 2 x 500,000 trades on 23rd June both at 88p and again only ONE of these trades was for the buy back. The second question is how do I get 'Doubling Down' in a sentence without sounding like a knob?
Yesterday looked like it wanted to breach 90p for good. It was good to see a material move for once, however it will be interesting to see how the SP moves once the buybacks end.
I'm still waiting on the price of Rhodium to move to 24k as forecast.
What he said...:)
Swat - Its just a theory I have conjured from the last month of watching the buy back of shares and how so far they bought almost daily and the price range was 87p-89p they bought 6m up until 26th June and cancelled them in one 6m lot. I thought this would be the finish but no they managed to buy another 200k+ because I believe some holders think that the buy back was to prop up the sp and the price would drop once they finished buying or on 30th June. . The company said they wanted to increase the SP and have vesting target prices to reach but at the same time they had to be seen not to raise the SP due to them cancelling shares and bought 'wisely' although on closer inspection there were way more buying than selling so I think they they are oversold literally. They have another 2m they can buy in the next 3 days but again can't send a message to the market showing their hand as they want to pick them up relatively cheaply and the cheaper they are obviously the more they can buy. ..... that's my theory lets see the practise.
Why do you say the brakes are off in 3 days? Am I missing something; why do you think the share price is going to rise above 100p?
Game back on, I thought it was all over! They couldn’t resist sweeping up some more at 87.5p and they do hate anyone second guessing so those that sold yesterday thinking wrongly that this was an exercise for supporting the SP will be regretting it in the next 3 days when the brakes are off. 3 days and maybe a few more million will be cancelled and I’m betting it’s going to rise above 100p
looks like they have finalised the buy back spending way less less than $8.5m they intended to spend whilst grabbing a bargain 6m shares. They must have reckoned 6m would cost 116p a share but they bagged them at under 89p and saved us $2m in the process.
2x 500k trades @ 88p
Im definitely adding as well as calculating…. and it would be funny if I wasn’t just a trader in Art. I’ve got a nice Henry Moore if anyones interested?
Another million shares bought back but where did they come from?
LOL - very funny Arthur.
Art ader
See what I did there ?!
"Hello me ....... Nice to see I am on the same page as you. what with only 6 days to go and did you see how many buyback shares were bought yesterday?'" Yes I did over 300,000 and I think they will buy the same amount, if not more, today." "Really?" "Yes they have 400,000 a day left to buy." " Wow will they be able to do it?" Yes but there may be a shortage of sellers so they may borrow some perhaps from the treasury shares" ..... "anyway nice talking to me I have to go now and so do you." "bye" "Bye same time tomorrow?" "sure"
Now only 7 …. today it seems they took off the kid gloves and bought at whatever definitely not in support of 85p but because they were cheap. There’s no pressure coming from sellers for good reason. dyor
The next 8 days could see some action with 3m shares left to buy in the buy back scheme ..... watch out as any day now this could spike with 375k a day purchases they have the option not to purchase the full amount but the logic behind the buy back was to increase the SP so could be fun?