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dollar keeps falling, was too flippin high anyway, i know people flock to the dollar in terms of crisis but as a few commods commentators have stated, should be a rotation out of the dollar and into gold because the dollar is still paying a -6% real interest rate, guaranteed lose
however gold does the same thing, guaranteed lose, though historically it is no better than the dollar / bitcoin, its just the way that it is.
so 2nd half should see better gold prices and that always feeds pgms (though would rather have rhodium than gold, better uses and still as good a store of value)
CorrectAmundo! TT :)!!!!! lovin` it
palladium up almost 6% too, not to be forgotten
weak US services PMI, down goes the dollar, come on rhodium
some direct correlation for you there quiggers :-)
Busy as hell so time only to record my delight at seeing 88p.
It's unimportant to SLP or anyone else, other than myself.
It's this month's opening price. So 'equals' now :)
July is under repair so the averages have dropped from double-figure gain expectancy in July, down to 5% for this year's offering.
So am keen for July NOT to close down compared to its month opening day.
As after last year, from a 100% certainty of July closing up to the month start, there's now a 25% chance of closing down ie., Averages show only 75% confidence of both July and August closing up on their respective month's opening. (I'll take those odds :)
Would like the low 90p's to appear and thus deliver the 5% gain for July, as it means August is more likely to follow suit but to a v much higher degree, although there remains a 25% downside risk to the close for August too.
Next up if July's target remains held to the month's close, is prior highs.
Have a series of those several 'easier' highs - which MUST be taken prisoner by the SP, before the more serious bout of a big dust-up with the first of the more Significant Prior Highs to beat (the very definition of stock on the move up).
Which "significant' high the SP falters against (if it does falter) will measure how much further the SP can travel before it hits market valuation perceptions for current conditions.
By the way, No:1 on the ladder - the Short-Term trend crossed to the upside today and is now bullish (so it was day and not days :) and has strengthed.
Eyes now on the next - the Intermediate trend, which whilst bearish, looks to be softening, and I'd say at the current rate of knots would take another month-ish or more to cross to the upside - (So, by close of August?)
PS. The day the Intermediate-trend turns bullish (whenever it occurs) is a genuine time for bunting, cartwheels and handstands. Because it serves notice on the larger tends.
And those Medium to Long-term trends (including the predominant 200 trend) remain unmoved, firmly bearish in outlook, looking down their noses at investors in pure disdain shaking their heads and sneering in dismissal at this emerging bull run breakout attempt.
July & August have tradditionally been great times to be an investor in SLP. Hoping to drop the phrase "have" and "been" after this year to "are always" :)
not NECESSARILY any correlation
you already had your answer, and just stated facts to support it, how people work these days
and no, wasnt suggesting random walk at all.
and people put up umbrellas (as stoodio will atest) for rain, for sun, to give them a good airing, to stay a bit hidden, various reasons, so for you to infer its raining is as i said, you already had your answer.
i prefer to feel constant water on my head to infer its raining, assuming someone not spitting on me or walking under a dripping gutter etc.
True tiger, Rh now at $15,400 - absolutely splendid :)
Respectfully, it is not stupid which is a baseless position plucked out of the thin air not supported by facts.
Just look at the cash flow statements.
I never gave reasons. I simply stated two observed facts. When I see a man with an umbrella up I infer it is raining. Of course it might not be and he just likes walking around like that on his day out of the local asylum.
No doubt there are a million and one things which move markets in your "random walk" what are you going to do?
Well do what you want. I need a quick and dirty short cut. So I look at the cash flow statement. Both went down. The SPs went up. Those are facts. You can ignore if you wish. Your point (I think) is that there is no correlation between the two.
I disagree. I think it is plainly obvious that cash flow is important to valuation. Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is reality
But lets` beg to differ. When the SP falls and I`m convinced it will it always does it will I hope will be for short term. SLP is by far my biggest holding. It is in my interest to see it rise, me proved wrong, and I hope I am!
i would say already doing her thing stoodio, though far more potential to come
results will prob take a few pence off, always do, but bit more movement on rhodium and we will be over £1
Sylvie is about to do her thing :)
If anyone believes we are (as it's been suggested by some that we are) at anything that resembles a 'fair valuation' you don't, in my humble assessment, understand much with regards to this business and the sector within which they oprate.
Onwards and upwards ladies.
oh, that complete moron, have had many discussions with him, has always predicted pgms will fall and yet claims is a holder of slp or ths or both
an agenda i would say
his real name is partly an anagram of what he is
quiggers, that is a really stupid statement, and what everyone does in todays awesome social media world
you cant just quote a set of numbers and say oh, look, a determines b etc
there are so many reasons yesterday (or on any mkt day) why something goes up or down.
tesla sold 75% of their bitcoin, there was general euphoria, job numbers, etc etc, falling dollar
i dont know you but you cant just make 1 dimensional, not necessarily correlated statements to support your theory
15 Jul '22
I make the current basket $2725, I sold today as the share price has held up so well compared to THS over the last 3 months, but PGM's are likely to fall even further as recession bites?
With higher and higher revenues to come now that all facilities are now working and production increases and PGMs are increase we are going to need a great chunk of the cash to finance the huge increase in debtors. We ain’t gonna borrow as there’s no need as the cash we have is there waiting for the current boom. It started in Q4 and I can’t wait to see the targets for 2023. So don’t worry about the big pile of cash and inflation the idea of using the banks money to make money is just so pre 2019.
You are assuming logic and rationality. I wish.
Tesla cash flow down 5.1% - SP up 9.7%
Netflix cash flow down 3.2% - SP up 3.4%
SLP cash flow will be up - by how much is anyone`s guess, but what do you think will have to the SP!!?
I`m hope I`m wrong I really do and my pea-sized brain goes back to reading comic books
I agree with your musings, I too see a strong August, but a not so harsh September which passes into an October with further re-alignment to the necessary upside. I am expecting well over 110p by December but I've called that wrong before :)
I also concur that we shall see this steady rise continue up to results, a small pull back as is ALWAYS the case here but for that to then commence an upward trend pretty soon after.
Midnight, just time for . . . .
“ How d'ya like that Velo? . . . “
- I like it a lot Stoodio :) A lot! Seriously strong day!
The SP led a merry dance over the past 48 hours but the SP came good today
- big time, strengthening this little bull run considerably in the process.
(In fact, the next (first) big rung on the ladder - the Short-Term trend has narrowed dramatically with that huge bull day today, and should in the coming day/s (even with modest movement) cross to the upside.
Still wouldn’t be a cause for celebration, that’s reserved for the next up – the Intermediate trend, but that’s looking as if it will take maybe weeks to turn – if there’s further to come.
Above that, the war-torn damage is all too visible in the bigger trends. Can’t ignore them. Their sad, long-faced, bear looks are all too visible. But can watch the bullish infection infect them, up through the chain in due process, as I'm pretty upbeat for a good week next week – and the full month of August too!
Next week (IMO) is looking good to go. Fully expect a nice victory lap into the home straight by next Friday. And then, further expecting even better work visible in August.
- Followed by the usual, the: Buy on the Rumour - and Sell on the News brigade, who always take command in September with this stock, as they’ve always done. So, need a good August in preparation for that event, as September, traditionally, always exacts a price after great results are published.
These stock market truisms are no myths. So, the SP nice and high by August/first week of September please, to deal with that particular issue.
Who'd have thought messing about in the 80's would bring such good cheer? :)
Just checked myself.
It looks like the opening of shanghai is having a positive affect on vehicle production.
Any other potential reasons for the increase in the price of Rhodium?
Rhodium now showing up at 15400 on Johnson Matthey.
How d'ya like that Velo?
I remember being ecstatic here when Rhodium hit $6,000 :)
So that is:
RIO on a multiple of 5,
AMS on 4
SSW on 3.5
SLP on, wait for it - 8 !!
Oh and er, with 9% growth over the next 10 years discounted by 8% on earnings (net profit) of $68.3mm as base.
I feel an R Kelly moment coming on - NO! not that !!!
Summut about flying.
Well pigs can, apparently according to Wall Street
87p to close ........ so 78% undervalued
Below Fair Value: SLP (£0.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£4.24)
Compared to others in the mining industry they may be onto something !!!!!
"Are they honestly suggesting this stock is worth 400p+?"
That equates to £4.32 on a SP of 84p. Depends on what valuation you start with. If we take earnings of $73mm as base year they are assuming growth rate of 9% for the next 10 years with a 7% discount rate and an exit multiple of 6! My view that is fairy land. It is an algo spitting out.
It is also cloud cuckoo when the risk free rate is running at 3% and inflation is near double figures so the ERP must be 8% or 9% at least. Then there is the country risk to factor in.
Discount rate of 15% is nearer the mark and assume growth nearer GDP levels - 5% max even if at all and optimistic given a start base of 73mm.
The market is not assuming any growth rate at all it is pretty much flat if you run the numbers.
That said I think a couple of quid is very realistic and if this gets to 150 soon I will top slice
Simply Wall St is automated.