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The RH pricing is still flatlining....
Bottomed out?
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/09/07/sylvania-is-overdue-a-re-rating/
GLA
Over the years, I have yet to see a year where upon publishing the full year trading results, the SP didn’t respond positively. It’s nearly always performed well in the days after the results are announced.
Last year was notable for lower revenue and lower earnings against the preceding year, yet the SP still responded positively (for approx a week).
Today earnings have come in at $45.3m which is down yet again on last year
– yet is circa 10% up on all the quarters added up for the year (my post way below of $41.8m).
Adjustments etc that can only be actioned at the year end maybe?
Although down as a total, maybe the result was better than the market hoped for, despite accepting lower revenue/earnings?
That, coupled with the upbeat report by the CEO for the future?
So this positive reaction by the SP at annual results time, may well go on to behave as it has always done (to date).
And that is, September has always been a bit ‘awkward’ in that the SP performs well for about a week then starts wandering for the remainder of the month, then comes back into line by the month’s end. A habit it has :)
I’m still expecting the floor round about here with October being my cut-off for expecting a lower SP, and there after a nice run, straight through to next year’s Jan/Feb. (but relative to Rh prices, either a modest nice run , or a very nice run depending on the price of Rh).
Jan/Feb past years of positive perfomances might be explained by platinum customers placing/budgeting their year-ahead platinum orders? – or so I’ve read.
The earnings forecast for this current year is for a v hefty reduction in earnings of only $28m ! Yikes!
The first quarter (that concludes this month) is published on October 30th. So we’ll see then, how better or worse the first Q1 is to following that road – or not :)
This is a play on RH prices it's the main driver ..........The average price of Rhodium (main contributor of profit) during that 12m reporting period using the monthly averages across 4 exchanges from JMT was $13.1k, the gross basket was $2k as reported today.
The average RH price since the start of the new financial year is $4.1k and has flatlined
There is no indication RH is in short supply EV penetration in china was 20%+
Any idea what the net profit currently is using 4.1k rh?
I think you need to do some maths.........wait for Q1, Q3/4 gave you an indication
You need a much higher & sustained RH price here.
Hopefully up from here, however divided is slightly decreased, Final was 8p last year, 5p this year.
Great presentation, Jaco excited about the future and pleased with overall performance. Next couple of years could be very interesting.
GLA
Filter "bangmycrak".
Keep buying, this share is hugely oversold. Great results & divi maintained & share buy back to resume.
Same here Mulder.
8p full year dividend so 11% yield.
Just waiting for the first negative bangrak comment now...
There was never a reason to sell unless one is into timing price-actions.
Very solid performance. This is a company run in a very professional manner, which continues to deliver year after year. Once the basket price starts to recover, which may happen soon, the SP will rocket. Time to accumulate and pocket the dividend
Excellent effort and very decent results!
5p divi on profit of 45.4 million
Sideways congestion and accumulation chart pattern since 4/7/23. Bullish positive divergence on Macd() and RSI(relative strength indicator). Large downtrend to be overcome, however, if sp, can remain at 71, or higher and build a pivot, or higher bottom around 71, then SLP, could be a buy.
The net is $41.4m split into H1 $32m with much higher RH prices & H2 9m with lower but still higher than now RH prices. The market should have done this maths already and worked out the average cost oz is $1056 and net basket now is not much different from this so those results are history, very little profit here. Q1 this year is when you will see the effects of $4k rh. Check profits in 2019 when the basket was similar but costs were $200 oz lower.
Seeing some forecasts being upgraded in some quarters for the 2025 era.
Aka the new joint venture ( The much touted "Thaba J/V adds significant value" )
has some areas of the market upgrading SP value up from the 120p area to 135p.
Class it as jam-tomorrow if you like, as the JV won't produce a penny until 2025.
First-off is the annual results presumably Sept 7th/8th - a week and a half away, so will that be an opportunity for the market to reappraise positively (or not) if they decide to react positively to the yet to produce a penny, new JV?
Personally, not expecting a floor in the SP until October, however the low point - not the floor, could have been seen this month already (or maybe the true low will be in Sept?)
John Rossier who runs a portfolio in IC gave his update for July today. He added to his existing holding in SLP at 70.2p on July 5th. This was his comment on SLP:
“ Sylvania Platinum fell due to the weak rhodium price. It was down 16 per cent during the month and is back to levels last seen in September 2019. Fourth-quarter results to 30 June steadied investors' nerves. Production exceeded guidance, and year-end net cash amounted to more than half of the market capitalisation. It's cheap on around five times earnings per share and, after stripping out cash, four times cash flow. While inexpensive, platinum group metal prices probably need to recover to get the share price moving. The forecast yield is 7.9 per cent for the year just ended, falling to 6.2 per cent in June 2024. On Stockopedia, it passes no less than 13 of its "guru" screens covering all bases – quality, value, growth and income. It has been a long-term holding, and the total return is 73 per cent. Again, I expect my patience will be rewarded.”
Surprised there have been no posts on the actual full-year results achieved, now that all 4 quarters have been revealed in RNS’s, ahead of the full-year audited accounts to be published, circa 7th September.
Anyway, to recap - from the top:
- all-time highs in the company’s entire history were achieved for the year ending June ‘21 with the front door/back door figures of Revenue/net profit revealing:
$206m Revenue / & $99.8m Net Profit.
That was excellent.
And from there on, it’s been nothing but pullbacks all the way down.
The following year (‘22) revealed:
$152m Revenue / $56.2m Net Profit.
Early this year market guidance for this year ending June ‘23 had it down for $166m Revenue & $66.8m net profit. However, revisions continually reduced that at every trading update. That $66.8 net profit was soon reduced to expectations of $65m.
The downgrades continued and after the Q3 update, mkt guidance had been reduced further to $134m Revenue/ & £51m Net Profit.
But worse was to come.
After the recent Q4 trading update, guidance was still continuing to be reduced and is currently still showing reductions of Revenue down to $132m / & Net Profit $48m.
So as no one has posted all the actual quarter results as a running total, I’m posting them here, in readiness for the early Sept full reveal -
H1 RNS revealed as:
Revenue achieved of $79.9m & Net Profit of $32.6m
Q3 Revenue achieved $26.510m & Net Profit $6.112m
Q4 Revenue achieved $24.421m & Net Profit $3.136m
Totalling:
‘23 full-year Revenue of $130.2m
$
‘23 full year Net Profit of $41.8m
Where was the Profit Warning from the company?
Because that’s a massive drop on last year yet the trading updates have a distinct aura of: we’re-doing-great!
Whatever, disappointing as that is, this new current year is forecast to come in with further pullbacks. June ‘24 guidance has been reduced again since the Q4 trading update to currently $127m for Revenue & $24m for Net Profit!
I don’t have ‘25 forecast guidance but it’s been posted below to expect Net profit of, wait for it . . . $53.9m ! :)
Should that be the case, then ‘25 could be the last of the floor, as regards to earnings; with an impact on the SP? - only if those 2025 earnings are achieved.
I won’t have ‘25 guidance figures to hand until after the audited ‘23 results are published in early September. But I’ll happily go with that near $54m Net Profit suggested in posts below :)
LN $30m of chrome production does the same to the top line as RH going from its current $4k to $8k. Both brokers seem to be using $13k in calculations for RH in their estimations but Liberum in its price deck is stating a $4k LT price for RH. I suggest any broker using a price 225% above its current price for next year and then saying it will drop to $4k is producing unrealistic figures. If an analyst was using $282 for oil I would laugh RH needs to rise substantially but at this point are producers just stockpiling? I would steer clear of PGM's and look at gas coal oil for winter then keep an eye on RH breaking its 50 day AND more importantly definite signs that RH is in deficit. I cannot see much happening in PGMs for 6m.
Https://www.edisongroup.com/research/chrome-ore-and-pgm-treatment-joint-venture/32591/
What's your time-frame?
Perhaps have a look at the broker forecasts for dividends they tell you all of this, not that they are necessarily correct. As it stands right now consensus (2 brokers) is 4c dividend and net of $24m 2024. Strangely by sheer luck and absolute guesswork being wrong at every turn that ties in with the 6m a quarter I said was expected a few weeks ago. Perhaps run it on a 20 day support and get out on a 20-day reversal, that's why i would do.
Mulder,
Don't confuse critical thinking with being 'negative again'.
You can cancel him (filter) at your leisure, I doubt that removing yourself from a feedback loop will lead to satisfactory results though.