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I would class the reliance on the Rh price for growrh in SP as risk.
Surely, Sylvania has a plan how to grow its business. Growth at all cost is dangerous. I am OK waiting a bit longer, keeping my eyes peeled on progress with her capital projects.
If in the meantime prices fluctuate, so be it. Eventually, I would like to see some inteinsic growth though.
Okay, thanks for that. It clarifies. The point made is "EXPECTED supply vs demand" (forgive the caps - only way to emphasise). One cannot just look at the graph and see the bar increasing, one has to ask was the rate of change higher or lower than "expected".
However, that conjures up a whole new dimension of uncertainty: what is the expected increase? (assuming an increase) and whose expectations?
And where to find that data? Be interesting to look at the monthly chart and map it onto the monthly sales. Have you done this and is there a correlation? I know that is not proof. There is no such thing. But it would be significant.
Fair point brother.
6p to 150p in 7 years is stagnant AF ;)
So the Chinese Automobile industry issues its monthly report (not blinkered opinion) on actual vehicle sales in CHINA the biggest player by far.
The car industry in CHINA is the largest consumer of two of your biggest contributors to basket & SP, what it does and will do matters to PGM's.
There are stats that clearly show trends (not opinions) if you care to drill down.
The more ICE vehicles that are sold means more demand for PGM's but this has to be an increase on what is expected or supply = demand and no huge rises in Rh. (2020 covid demand exceeds supply Rh $29k SLP 150p)
More ICE demand means higher prices
Potential higher demand shown in data for ICE growth means fund managers are interested in growth.
24% of all vehicles being sold are now NEV up some 115%
However, you quickly decide to say this data shows nothing, its an opinion, without even looking at it, and a logical assumption is made by me that if the largest buyer of vehicles by far and the controller of many Rare Earths is buying 24% NEV it clearly shows a trend in what they are actually doing backed by the CCP incentives, and an investment into something not fitting with that might not be attractive & make you rich and MIGHT explain why this isn't moving.
Maybe I`m just being dumb as f here. ...(would not be the 1st time)
If car sales are UP in China well that means more cars are being produced /sold
= more materials needed (obvs)
= one of the key materials is ...PGMs.
If it were the reverse, I`d be worried. ...
If I`m selling bananas and nobody is coming to my stall to buy them, I aint gonna be placing orders at the banana factory, who in turn ain`t gonna be placing orders at the banana plantation.
What am I missing ???!!!
he's prob an alias of that other complete idiot that posts on the ths board and slp/ths for advfn, constantly talking pgms down, and claims to be a holder, yeah right
Morning - I've no problem with both sides of the debate but yes, it's rarely as simple as supply/demand - in fact, it never is ...
The Money Guys need inflation - that's why we have it - the economic downturn (in real numbers) is Depression-esque, only the inflation hides it.
Deflation from here would break everything - it cannot and will not be allowed to happen.
Therefore, number must go up - for years from here - and the best way to make number go up is by pumping energy and commodity costs as they're the base input cost for every economic activity in the World.
The Russians taking significant amounts of Ukraine's PGM output (amongst other things) being somewhat helpful in that regard ;)
And that doesn't account for the plethora of other uses for PGM's, that exist currently and are also being unearthed regularly by scientists working in the space :)
Storing the suns energy anyone? Do your own :)
That's exactly it Tiger. I'm all for debate, but blinkered statements are misleading.
AND, not only will PGMs be required in large quantities for the forseeable short to mid term future (I regard this as at least 3-10+ years), there's absolutely zero recognition of the laboured, cumbersome, and massive challenges to en-masse buy-in to the EV market and the issues surrounding this space.
Customer acceptance? Non-existent in The Americas and other BRIC nations in anything like an impactful number.
The EV charging atmosphere? MASSIVE PROBLEM. Currently absolutely laughable and will take YEARS to become ubiquitous. Well recognised to ultimately require the consumers to have charging stations at home? And that doesn't bring with it any problems whatsoever :) I'll ask my mate on the projects if there's any way we can set one up for each bedsit in the shared yard :)
Battery shortages and capacity? Will leave that there :)
Expensive technology and will remain so for some time.
Shall I carry on? Damn son...
its these sort of comments that everyone seems to spout these days that really gets on my t***
not only out of context, not only ignores the recent very large ups and downs that china has had, not only cherry picks certain stats:
"Essential reading as this tells you what is going on and what will happen to PGM prices."
i would personally let the company view be taken, as they are the experts, not us
Maybe it's because, well the company put it best:
We are cautiously optimistic in terms of the PGM price outlook - expecting PGM demand to remain robust and prices to remain healthy.
Bangrak, "...as this tells you what is going on and what will happen to PGM prices."
No it doesn't amigo.
It's a view on the vehicle market in China. If the markets are future looking, why are PGM's not falling through the floor?
And here are the latest CAAM results. Essential reading as this tells you what is going on and what will happen to PGM prices.
2.42m vehicles sold in July -3.3% mom, but up 29.7% on july 2021
14.47m sold Jan-July -2% yoy
24% sold in July were NEV 115-117% up yoy
Irrespective of what you think, you need to consider what the masse (inc funds) believe or will believe, as that drives your volumes and prices.
I bought my first Platinum coins on the weekend - looks like Platinum is breaking out right now to my eye.
And it's important to fully understand that in 2020 after covid there was a shortage, mines were struggling to ship it out, and the Chinese wanted lots of it as they were frantically buying cars rather than traveling together. Prices will go up and down but have we seen $200 oil as predcite
Rh makes up about 9% of the basket and 50% of the revenue.
"You mention August being a good month, traditionally it very much is so it's going to be interesting to see where this goes over the coming couple weeks."
The old characteristics are resetting due to events outside of the company's control.
July failed to perform again this year.
August is off to an indifferent start so much so, that I've posted of lowering my target to £1 by August month end - if that!
July and August performed like an unbeatable tag team for the 5 years up to early summer 2021 and since that date are still under the cosh.
Looking at all data since SLP's launch on the market in 2011, both July and August fade away a lot.
However, including the bad years from the last Rh market crash it's Jan & Feb that stand head and shoulders bullishly above July/August.
It's only the last 5 years ending early summer 2021 that made July/Aug shine so brightly.
Also, of all the months June has never failed - to perform badly - since launch.
If Aug performs well this month then the characteristics are still twitching. But July is hinting not to get too dependable on the past glories of August.
But that also means past under-performing months like results month Sept, can no longer be guaranteed to be:
"Buy on the Rumour & Sell on the news" months either.
After the SP crash, the remaining "certainties" IMO are Jan/Feb to be admirably bullish.
June to stink like bearish hell without fail.
All previous repeat performing certainties, are no longer so certain.
The certainties are still weaker than the regkuabiluty they offered prior to the SP crash from May 2021.
I have big hopes for next Jan & Feb but such us the state of flux I'm more rekuant on the trends in SLP.
I don't have the same confidence in July/August due to that state of flux.
As said what has perforned to expectations regardless of bull or bear market has Bern Jan/Feb since the launch of SLP and June always to be a stinker!
Trends are increasing their bullishness, so maybe an easing of squeezing the SP is on the cards?
Thanks Tiger :)
Sorry off and on topic but just referring to something back on that green agenda. I said it flippantly before, and in the grand scheme of things it's small-town info.
We're 10 million people in the UAE. Electric (Tesla, Chevy etc) cars here have FAILED. As in, failed failed. There was alot of noise around 2017 and it was the talk of the town, "yeah yeah we're going to be all electric by 2025". No sir.
Electric vehicles are two-a-penny in dusty second-hand carlots all over the UAE right now. Nobody wants em. There was initial surge of buyers, who soon realised the cars were sack o' **** lumps of plastic and they ditched them in their droves, both locals and expats to get back to real machines; lambos, patrols, mustangs... And the UAE won't be the only country to think like this. Start with North America...
Where electric has gone here, which is where I see it going in the short to medium term globally (while still not getting close to penetrating a decent hole in the consumer ICE market) is by way of public services; buses, ubers, taxis, scooters, ev ride companies and such like...
The high demand for PGMs ain't going anywhere anytime soon. Period. Show me the money Slyvie :)
Thanks Velo, much appreciated and all very interesting as ever :) So even though we're treading water for the past few days, we seemingly have a temporary (but hopefully long term) floor around the 90p mark. Global turmoil aside, we are looking somewhat good on the prominent trend lines...
You mention August being a good month, traditionally it very much is so it's going to be interesting to see where this goes over the coming couple weeks. PGMs looking decent after a tick up for the past few days.
“. . . what are the charts talking about here nowadays? “
What a positive outlook, of an encouraging and energising post Stoodio!
Just back late last night from over a week & half away up north so something (from my POV only) triggered in that time which I think I last posted of some time back of perhaps being a possibility in maybe a couple of weeks.
Well it’s now been a couple of weeks :)
When the “last 7 or 8 days” postings of consecutive gains suggested a potentially change in trend I treaded lightly.
Eventually the initial Short-Term trend crossed to the bullish upside. Still, I refused to be seduced and posted of waiting for the next more powerful and therefore more indicative Intermediate Trend to turn bullish (it was back then still bearish, as is the predominant 200-day trend).
It (the Intermediate-Trend) crossed to the upside by confirming so, approximately a week ago!
I have come to take serious notice of the Intermediate Trend, as a worth the risk of a punt trend, and adds weight to the initial Short-term trend as perhaps having some legs.
Longer term trends will take a lot longer to confirm what’s underway (should it continue) and are still leaning lazily against the bearish fence. So not a clean sheet just yet.
The predominant trend itself (bearish) the 200 day - is but a mere fingertip stretch away in the lower 90’s to being breached! (Party time when it does) And of late has been levelling off; so that’s nice.
So, I’m enthused by the lower level trends turning positive – bullish!
It can be said the initial 7 or 8-day bull run has now strengthened into something stronger, more bullish.
I’m also enthused by the US main markets behaving similarly. Despite Geo-political events which twist and turn threatening to escalate with each passing week, I’m quite bullish on SLP for this later summer/ autumn whilst fully expecting corrective pullbacks which may derail some investors traumatised by this worldwide pullback in all markets this year.
So, the trends are looking positive Stoodio – not all of them; but enough to make interested observers take note. The lower trends have all turned to the upside; is it a sign the longer-term bearish trends may eventually fall to the bull too? T
very open and enlightening stoodio, i like you even more now :-)
of course, being human you cant apply those all the time but good set of principles to go with.
reminded a bit, in most parts, of tom brady actually......all the greats have these kind of approaches, chip on their shoulder they use to drive them etc.....
Thanks Velo, I appreciate that.
Truth is buddy I learnt from the best (my father), but refused to ever take from the best. I've made my own way in life from the age of 18. I've been through it too believe me, a period of darkness (physical and mental) 20+ years ago which will haunt me to my deathbed. But I don't dwell, I try to use it to my advantage and developed my own guiding principles for life...
I allow my pain to drive me to greatness.
I fear absolutely nothing.
You will never outwork me.
I will take everything that's mine.
I only ever win. Even when I lose...
Now ya'll have a slightly deeper understanding regarding the tone of many of my posts :) And FWIW, even writing the above get's me a little teary. There ya go, real man talk.
On to far more interesting things, what are the charts talking about here nowadays?
" . . . along with various other income producing interests :) "
Way to go Stoodio!
(I had a useful 'other income' sideline up until Covid, but less so these days).
Full of admiration for anyone who's managed to engineer multiple income streams.
Bangrak, all valid points brother and good to hear your views. They're well considered. I just don't believe for one moment the transition to 'green energy' is going to be anywhere near as fast as some prospectors would have you believe.
Far, and I mean far too much, massive, industrial scale structural upheaval for it to be a quick, or even smooth transition. The green lobby have been green lobbying for 50+ years. I expect them to continue to do so for another 20-30 yrs at least before green energy dominates the BRIC nations along with North America. And that is very much my own opinion.
And for the above reason alone, I believe an investment in SLP will only reap rewards before that full green domination.