Sylvania Pl Share Chat (SLP)

Interestingly UK vehicle production increased for the first time in ten months recently, although still well down on pre co levels, at the same time this last week news out in the US is saying a glut of semi conductors is on the cards instigating a crash in chip makers prices.
We also still have issues with supply chains however with news of increasing production, more availability of chips which was a huge issue fading we only have the recession and other supply chain issues to worry about.
It looks as though PGM demand should remain steady at current levels.
https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/uk-car-production-first-time-since-june-2021-30-06-2022

gonna keep an eye on the stochastic:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YlhrJCGV/
it is as good a guide as any I have found over the years but each to their own of course.
as always, GLA

Quote a confluence of trend lines around low 70s - have to see how they play it but oversold on the daily now.

weekly chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fnhm3bHm/
last time dropped to below 200DMA was 2017 by the looks of that, what an opportunity but "to buy or not to buy" (now) that my friend is the question!

Yummy - check your weekly lines Quiggers ...

That looks bad...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Gkjm8c3/

Rh falling again, SP dropping sharply
Another buying opportunity for divis if nothing else.
Question is, when...?

Sad face

With that low today, and although I previously said higher lows were dissapating away, today's low confirms decisively that higher lows have now gone. In fact, worse, it's slightly lower since August of last year.

A bit too long to expect higher highs and higher lows to still be attempting a recovery after almost a year anyway. Fundamentals were always threatenibg a longer time in revovery - a la chips et al.

However as a personal opinion I'm open to all international markets finding their absolute low point over the next couple of months even if they remain subdued thereafter. Just an opinion only. On the other hand most others are talking of recession, stagflation etc., etc.,

Meanwhile from short term through medium to long term - all trends - all of them - in the SP are still bearish. No escaping it. Things might/might not get worse from here but haven't got a positive thing to offer. It's all eyes on the Q4 at the end of the month then.

That might have taken a few stop losses out !

04-Jul-22 14:00:07 82.80 290,197 Sell* 83.00 83.50 240.28

82p ?

$67m net profit, EPS 20p, SLP has traded on a PE of 3-5 for many years so its about right where it is, unless there is a sizable change in the price of RH or they do something to add value (unlikely). If you want to work out some very juicy figures, look at IOG. My calculations say its net profit next 12m will be about the same as its market cap now. Gas & Coal only things looking fundamentally and technically strong. Rest at present is very poor. SCAN* transition metals are also very very weak. *steel copper aluminum, nickel. Calculations here at 30p in 2020 post covid said this was worth 80p hence the huge interest and volumes then. See what you see, don't see what you want to see, you will make more money. TTM is what it actually did not an algo btw.

Thankyou Quigger and Velo.

I did add back non cash items - depreciation expense of about 4m so that would bring the number down to high 60s not so far from yourself V.

“ . . . I have Free Cash Flow per share of 23p ON ESTIMATED EARNINGS OF $73M . . . “

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- And more wind to your sails Quiggers on your estimate of $73m earnings.

I hope you’re on the money there, as that would be the defibrillator shock paddles applied to SP after the command: Stand Clear! is given, that would shock the SP back into the land of the living.

I'm seeing the market guidance is for estimates of the Net Profit in the region of $62m.

However, the TTM (Trailing 12 months) algo, is suggesting Net Profit of an astonishing $83m+ which I find too rich.
So that $73m sounds a reasonable possibility, which would give the SP that pulse, as that would be a market beat and sentiment would improve no doubt towards the SP.

The final Q4 update of the year, is due out in the last late days of this month.

They won’t issue the full year amount until approx the 7th/8th of September, so you’ll have to add the subtotals yourself to compare to your own estimate.

This is why August has (until last year) form, in being a good period for the SP.

As yesterday was the final day of the full trading year (so happy 1st day of the brand new 2023 trading year today!) they’ll be working on compiling that Q4 right now.

Not profitable before 2019?
EBITDA margin:
`14: 23.72%
`15: 26.37%
`16: 28.09%
`17: 36.24%
`18: 35.37%
SLP has no pricing power. I think that is why the market does not see value. Also, South Africa is high risk.
I have Free Cash Flow per share of 23p on estimated earnings of $73m
GLA

Any explanation for the low valuation in comparison to net assets and profit, Sylvania is currently very profitable, but was not for all of the years prior to 2019, could Sylvania return to the profitability levels of the years prior to 2019? Also when does the share buyback end and I have some eps estimates for the years 22-23-24 of 20-24-23 pence, can anyone confirm or update these estimates?

Well I'm gobsmacked the SP has withstood the market set-backs the past 2 days let alone this year to date. (Although the SP has dropped 1p by close, the bid; the selling price - remains okay by comparison).

IMO the SP now enters the 2nd best period of the year for a chance of outperformance by the SP.

I'm encouraged to believe traditional August has not been destroyed by the collapse of the supercycle in PGM commodities. (January and February is the first best period of the year and both those months delivered this year!)

January has done that since SLP has been listed on the market - August only since the 5 years, up to ending May 2021
thereafter it all collapsed. (But not January)

First things first, the higher lows and higher highs are almost dead - by appearance with that extreme low in June, virtually putting paid to that idea.

Higher highs have been a rarity since August of last year and unless we get one in either July or August, then for me to repeat "higher highs" would be stretching credibility.

June was no where bad enough as it's traditionally been, so all previous dependable annual characteristics are in flux and no longer dependable as they had been especially for the 5 years non-stop that ended in May 2021.

Those who promoted SLP as only worth 80-odd p, must be recognised for calling it correctly. But that was then. I thought and still think it's value is worth a couple of quid!

So now it's time to see if giant-killer August has a heartbeat. July has historically until last year nearly always been not half bad, but those days are as good as gone, unless I see /hear a pulse.

Unfortunately every trend measurable is down-trending and still bearish on SLP, more due to geopolitical events outside of company control, than self induced.

Therefore until we see that pulse (this month or August?) the 80p'rs rule the roost.

PS.
THS is having a torrid time of late and a worse time than SLP, SP-wise.

All balance sheet metrics for SLP are now superior to THS. Screen filtering-wise SLP tops THS as the better buy on every screen.

Fact, not opinion.

6, it is below 4! And agreed, this is and has been very favourable. It is all about the Rh and that - for the moment - seems to be holding firm.
VW chief last week talking bullish on pipeline and supply chain shortages so that is a positive sign.
GLA

With a P/E below 6 and returns (equity and capital) over 30%, a healthy cash position and zero debt, the risk reward ratio was favourable for quite some time ;)

Rhodium seems to have stabilised. Director buy today too, so risk / reward ratio moving in our favour. GLA..

Interestingly, my IG feed is only showing a single trade volume for both of those events - I wonder if the second trades are transfers between MMs, maybe if there was an agreement for one to accumulate shares for the buy back on behalf of the other acting for SLP? They could maybe acquire the 51,893 easily enough on the open market but several 100ks more difficult? I'm guessing a little here though.

Amazed you got knob through LSE's otherwise puritan censorship.

Interesting trading yesterday with 2 x 200,000 trades both at 88p and both at 9:19 BUT only ONE of these trades was a buyback as the RNS tells us they bought back 251,893 at an average price of 88.35p - The other trade was 51,893 at 89.7p at 14:44 which gives the average of 88.35p (£176,000 + £46548 = £222,548 / 251893 ). The question is who bought the other 200,000 at 9:19? ...... this is similar to the 2 x 500,000 trades on 23rd June both at 88p and again only ONE of these trades was for the buy back. The second question is how do I get 'Doubling Down' in a sentence without sounding like a knob?

Yesterday looked like it wanted to breach 90p for good. It was good to see a material move for once, however it will be interesting to see how the SP moves once the buybacks end.

I'm still waiting on the price of Rhodium to move to 24k as forecast.