Sylvania Pl Share Chat (SLP)

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/25/investing/platinum-gold-precious-metals/index.html

Hey Tiger. The tax payments are in Q2 and Q4 and I have allowed for a significant build in trade debtors to 140 days outstanding in my EBITDA to FCF conversion. There was a sizeable debtors position at 30 June which I would mostly expect to be paid out during the quarter. However you may be right to err on the side of caution regarding the timing of smelter payments given the high incidence of force majeure declared across the industry.

I realised I still had some post tax Grasvally proceeds in my cash forecast so FCF and cash should be $4m lower.

Hi Ragnar!
My EBITDA estimate will probably come out very close to yours (not done it yet) as we're using similar assumptions.
I do think the cash pile may not grow as much as we think, though. This was flagged in the annual report and in the presentation as well - I think we'll find that the smelters are delaying payments somewhat, and that there will be a corresponding growth in trade receivables rather than actual cash. Q1 is also one of the two quarters when the corporate tax bill comes due, isn't it?
Meanwhile, gold has started slipping again, and (after a brief rally) platinum is sliding with it. I make both huge buys at the bottom of this dip, but judging it ain't easy!

Tiger, yup just saw that. Truly bizarre.

The oddest trade has just popped up - for about £1500's worth of shares at 19.75p on the bell this morning. Hence the bizarre drop.
Any money this is a fat finger error and it will be reversed in due course. Probably was meant to be 59.75p.

https://www.mining.com/rhodium-price-rockets-to-all-time-high/

Hi Nimrod,

The shareholding structure of Sylvania means that if there is any takeover of Sylvania then it needs to be sanctioned by Samancor. Africa Asia Capital (SLP's largest shareholder) is part of Samancor and the investment is a blocking stake that effectively protects its chrome processing.

Its unlikely that Samancor is going to sell SLP and relinquish its processing plants to another party in the value chain, especially not a Chinese customer. I just can't see any incentive for Samancor to relinquish something so key to its production process. Without a takeover of Samancor I think its very unlikely that SLP will be taken out. Japan has a big interest in Samancor so unlikely they'll let that go to the Chinese and no-one is interested in buying a chrome company right now with huge stockpiles still being worked through in China.

Its in page 7 of this report:
https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/component/jdownloads/send/63-2010/105-investor-relations-presentation-7-october-2010?option=com_jdownloads

surprised that one of the big Chinese players haven't tried to buy Sylvania so as to secure their supplies.

Morning TBTT. I had a little nibble of the platinum ETF this morning. The sell-off over the last week has bene unnecessarily brutal. And I bought back a chunk of SLP which I sold the other day. Couldn't resist!

Be interesting to see how your estimates compare to my estimate for Q1 below. Production is based on prior year seasonality and 69koz for the full year, I've assumed that costs return to the March quarter levels of around $600/oz and the basket price stays the same for the next week to give a quarterly basket of around $2,550/oz. Sales adjustments and refining charges always throw my forecast off a bit.

Production: 18,300oz 4E PGM
Sales: $38.4m
EBITDA: $27.3m
Free Cash Flow: $17.1m
Closing Cash: $73.1m

nimrod, yup. I don't see demand decreasing (and therefore prices reducing) for PGMs anytime soon.

Nothing to see here. Wake me up at a quid.

Buys only outweighing sells here by 10:1 again!

https://www.metalsdaily.com/link/309683/wpic-resurgent-eu-automaker-push-to-sell-more-diesel-cars-is-a-boost-for-platinum-demand-growth.htm

Hokum pokum.

Thank you TbTT.

Anyway, the platinum price is recovering a little today after being dragged down by dollar strength and gold weakness. (Palladium and rhodium held up relatively well). So SLP's share price should move back up again.
I'll try and work out an estimate for this quarter's profits over the weekend. It should be a very good one for SLP.

Hi Craig!
Market-makers on AIM shares can see stop losses and do drop the Bid price to trigger them if it suits. And if they do it well, they can trigger a cascade of stop losses so that a share price to fall rapidly. But there are rules they must follow, and though the rules can be bent a little, they can't be broken outright. Dropping the Bid a couple of pence to collect some cheap shares they can and do do; but dropping it to 19p suddenly and without cause would trigger an investigation and consequences. And they don't want that; they're doing very nicely as things are.

Could MMs do that though, just to trigger stop losses and massage their margins?

I get the impression that MMs are given far too much credit for their ability to manipulate a SP.

I think the 19p was more of a computer glitch than an actual quoted price.
If it was a quoted price, then - yes - stop losses could have been triggered. I hope that's not the case!

That would not trigger any automatic stop losses surely!

All I can say is that if this does drop to 19p, I'm all in. But it won't. So this is a silly post.
I've got no idea why the MMs give us this scare every few months. Probably seeing if they can trigger any cardiac stop losses and buy the shares cheap off the heirs.

Last time it did that the sp did tank for a short Period.

Gave me a fright too. I went to buy some to check and was offered 59.6
Would this have taken out a stop loss if I had one set?

It’s done this before. No idea why.Can sell for 59.6.

Got the heart racing though!

What the hell has happened for a 69pc drop on open?

Baltic dry is rising after a few weeks of being lost. Dr Copper is stable and still in an uptrend. Rhodium and Palladium are still looking very good. Platinum looks weak. China is doing fine & people are buying cars. Mothballed rhodium mines cannot be opened quickly indicating higher ($10k+) Rh prices will remain for quite a while. Most people dont care about the flu unless they are fat, sick, or very old. Everyone wants to get back on planes and fly about again and are bored with it. SLP hit a sticky patch at 70p it's fallen back, momentum traders have left and now we are all looking at it saying a basket price of $2852, an EPS of 22p, worth an easy 95-112p. Considering what's going on I would say the next week or two is a good time to do some shopping until the unnecessary fear is gone, fear causes stress, rational, logical thinking creates peace.

DL
Happiness can just refer to the pleasure we find on a sensory level, but real happiness is related to peace of
mind. If we have a calm mind, fear and suspicion are reduced. Fear is a major source of unhappiness.

Stoodio. SP @6p? Yes please!