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Orangecannon @ "I was expecting a 5%+ drop (SLP) . . . as I thought Rhodium was plummeting . . . Did it bounce? "
Idly checked just now, with similar thoughts, but discovered (Johnson Matthey site) Rhodium had increased today from $11,250 at yesterday's close to today's Friday close, of $12,350
- That's almost, just under, a near significant 10% rise in Rhodium alone, today :)
PS. That Thursday $11,250 was awfully close to the last chance saloon's $10,700 as to make no difference, in a table I posted before heading up north recently ( I calculated it as the 78.6% final Fibonacci level). Treat it more as a checkpoint level not as a forecast).
Whatever, it was close enough to imply it's already bounced away from the entrance to death valley - for now at least anyway.
As ever, it depend what you’re looking for. SLP appears to me to have a good management team and a sound business model. On fundamentals it looks cheap and aside from the vagaries of PGM prices, it fits the criteria in my book for a good long term hold.
Of course it’s not a 10 bagger, but it is solid with a decent dividend and a proven management we can trust…….. I value the latter highly.
Close above 105p required to confirm a double bottom but it’s too short term, a double bottom over 3 or 4 weeks won’t become a significant move so not for me. Downtrend needs to be broken on volume before this will contemplate moving higher. 85p looks like good support but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was breached and 70 to 75p buy zone becomes available. I looked at the fundamentals in May and have since gone long twice and shorted once from the charts alone. The big fish are controlling this on technicals. Mainly in cash at the moment or in and out of a stock quickly as inflation woes don’t seem to want to subside. All in my opinion of course.
at least none of you have to put up with that annoying **** sotolo over on ths
velo's posts are sort of ok, rambles waaay too much and chartism is mostly nonsense (unless most believe it then obviously self fulfilling)
i do hope the chip shortage will peak this month but i do have some doubts, because there are chips and there are chips, the high end dashboard chips for cars are the hardest to get through, but still love slp and will always hold.
Chatmandu - I hear what you're saying. But knowing 2 accountants in the automobile industry I know for certain manufacturers do NOT stockpile so much and haven't done for a good few years (since circa 2014 actually).
Chip shortages will ease quicker than many analysts predict in my opinion. Why do I know this? GlobalFoundries is a client of mine :)
As ever, happy to fall on the sword :) But I stand by £1.40+ December 31st this year. Remember i said it.
Re. Velo, he's an old boy with a very sensible and unique approach, busy on his allotment tending to the spring onions, give him a break. Everything he predicted was according to form - there was nothing wrong in what he was predicting, other than SLP broke with convention. No big deal.
I think your timeframes for a turnaround are far too optimistic (a bit like Velo's 'blow your socks off July', which turned into August, which turned into radio silence).
The manufacturers of catalytic convertors will be holding a lot of inventory right now and may also be holding quantities of PGM metals for future production. It will take a long time to work through the stockpiles of parts and I doubt that will see PGMs rising within the next three months - especially, as the chip shortages won't actually be over. They're just predicted to ease.
The microchip shortage is expected to peak this month. Simply put, this is the best time to enter IMO. The charts are also showing a double bottom. You calculate the numbers all day, but I doubt the opportunity to enter this low will come again anytime soon.
Bangrak, I appreciate your posts I truly do, but sometimes you make me question my own assumptions, which contrary to what one might think, I'm actually grateful for.
However, I believe you're wrong. It's all heresay of course, forecasts mean jack, when Mr Market dictates how **** flows along with global supply demand of course. But I think the valuation you're assuming doesn't account for free cash flow and operational improvements, along with predatory and future forward potential. All quite intangible at this stage. But I personally think the market for PGMs is somewhat set in stone, and on an only upward trajectory for the next few years. So how do we account for this? Well we can't of course.
But SLP continue to be highly profitable with Rh at these levels and I only see its pricing moving up towards the end of the year as demand picks up heading into the new year (December / January being historically best selling car sales months in China). I agree, the £2 valuations, for the time being, are somewhat toppy. However I'll stand by my guns and suggest I'd be very surprised that if by December 31st we were not north of £1.40 here.
And as you're all no doubt well aware - manz here has the patience of a sloth to see my ultimate valuation realised :) Which it will be.
All read before 8.30 am. Pages 43-45 are interesting, it's advisable to read this. I'm not sure Heraeus know what they are talking about, they expected Rh to remain high (but not $100k like ben) but now forecast the next 6 months for the average to be $13k with an actual surplus of 30k oz, so no RH deficit anymore, this is important to understand if you don't want to end up like markinvestor constantly losing money buying into lowering profits trusting tardy broker revisions. So on flat 70k production with much lower basket prices like SLP said, will you be getting huge $100m free cashflows and $120+m net profits and 44c eps? Some targets really do need to be revised here and the broker needs to be realistic, he is losing credibility maintaining these forecasts, there is a possibility of this comfortably generating $78m net, worth about 92p plus the cash but no more than this.