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Some of those on the list yes (not all). I`d be interested to know what discount rate you use and your growth assumptions.
I don`t use ttm earning figures but normalised.
Everyone is just guessing of course ..."It is useless to try to predict future earnings from any single past
earnings growth ratio":
Yes Bangrak, I get it, you're very smart and everyone else is a dumbass, but you're the only one, I'm guessing, living in a Hong Kong high rise.
Didn't you mention Hong Kong holidays last week on THS?
Does anyone know what SLP and THS are making as profits today at today's prices?
Do you know what the historical PE rates are for both from the stock exchange over 5 yrs?
Do you know what the DCF figures are?
Do you know what the life is of both mines/tailings?
Do you know what cash flow is with/without cap-ex?
Do you rely on 1 analysis or 6 to get a consensus?
Do you read broker notes?
Do you even bother with working out what your shares will make yourself?
Do you know the expansion plans for both and how that affects the net income?
Do you know who owns the bulk of shares in both companies via complex trusts?
Do you know how much profits will be if Rh slips to any value and have protected yourself against this?
Do you have 4 charts set up for Rh alone and multiple alerts and triggers and have an opinion yourself of Rh?
Do you monitor car production in china and industry news daily?
I guess very few, this takes huge amounts of time, time the ordinary PI doesn't have but you tend to get in ahead of people or take advantage of special situations if you know this. It probably explains a lot of the discussion regarding the two and why many are in both but prefer one over the other. A great investment never starts on a spike unbless it's being sold really cheap
THS - their growth rate (net income) non-cash assets is looking healthy:
Net Income $m (current year) (E] 151,326,000
Book Value of equity (prior year) (G) 320,829,000
Cash Balance (end of prior yr) (H) 49,293,000
Income from Cash Balance (F) 1,120,000
Capex (A) 79,500,000
Depreciation (B) 62,000,000
Increase in working cap (C) 111,438,000
Total debt (D) 43,025,000
Equity Reinvestment = A - B + C - D 85,913,000
Non-cash net income = (E] - (F) 150,206,000
Non-cash book equity = (G) - (H) 271,536,000
Reinvestment Rate (E53/E54) 57.20%
Non-cash ROE (E54/E55) 55.3%
Expected growth rate: 31.6%
I feel I should add but highly exposed to PGMS as it is with SLP at 25% of portfolio.
Still using the pejorative on THS, our management is sound and responsible thanks, THS poster.
" Investing.com – The FTSE 100 finished the week with its worst day since 11th May as equity markets around the world came under selling pressure. There was widespread selling across the sectors..."
Both THS & JLP had under performing days today, so no shame in that with regards to the above (Triple Witching hour Friday?)
- Whilst the King sported a 4%+ rise today :)
This is one fish that will give a real pleasure and a true test, if I can find a landing net big enough come the day (a week and a half away).
Good to have in months like this.
Thought I had seen the odd SLP mention Craig - the last was on Monday. The poster concerned was enjoying a rise by JLP and THS whilst SLP was not, and asked perhaps SLP next?
So maybe the odd singular mention unless I'm confusing with the time the JLP guy who was arguing with Tiger on here and on THS, by opining that JLP was the better choice over the other two - in his view :)
JLP is on the radar for a small punt if 17's dares to stick its head above the parapet. Got until end of July and no later to get JLP @ 17's
- otherwise it's an 18 only by end of July latest to get aboard on the last train leaving JLP Central by then.
The bigger punt is due this month end, on SLP. I'm unfazed by this temporary rise, as I'll be participating no matter what, and much like Gladiator - I will have my vegenance in this month or the next :) :) :)
to be fair Velo,
I'm invested in JLP too and spend a lot of time on JLP and I haven't seen mention of SLP in anyway on the JLP board this year.
Ha ha LOL! Yeah, both THS and JLP both ftenn post adversely against SLP when they encounter a downtrend in their stocks.
They mostly never post of comparing to each other, only against SLP. They want only the king's clothes.
P'S. My THS tranche is only "token" at the moment.
SLP THE PLACE TO BE. PERIOD.
DON’T @ ME
Nice Velo, don't know what to make of THS, if I decided to put anything in, it would be a token, if you do decide to post on THS board, best not tell them you're from SLP, sounding bit like sour grapes over there today.
Thanks Mark. The mid price was showing as 126 but the spread was 124/128.
No way was I going to pay 128 !
So like SLP, it's margin spread can be massive. So was initially unimpressed. But tested it anyway, and waddya know - just like SLP what is actually offered sometimes is not too bad.
When 126 in the round was offered I didn't hesitate. And as an AIM stock I'm still in the 126's after costs.
So got it for the mid price :)
Mentioned 120's about THS last year as an "issue". When it passed the personal test I posted of (on here not THS) I failed to act on my own assessment.
This year it revisited 120's but don't know where my head was, as let it pass.
So corrected an old sore. Not expecting that great a performance to year end, but it'll do.
And depending on events I may yet top up before the end of this month, but the end of this month will be it for THS top-up's.
Nice one Velo.
Just added THS at bang on 126. Happy with that. Theoritically I expect it might drift lower, so only a v small tranche in readiness. Haven't posted on THS board as not into THS per se as I am SLP.
Bought within my general account away from the seperate experimental acc awaitiing my SLP swing trade.
The lockdowns introduced thousands of new bored people to the markets who could throw money at anything and it went up, they are now expert investors. Bitcoin is an example of a totally chart-driven investment that's slipped out of a channel sub 200 and now people don't know what to do. SLP is controlled by an underlying set of metal prices with RH having the most influence, its nothing to do with anything that happened in previous years, that is connected to particular times of the year when they stockpile Rh and other PGM for catalysts driving prices. I'm sure China wants copper back in a mid Feb to late April price range and it's done that exactly using threats about releasing some of their 2mths supply of copper they have. When the momentum/trend gets damaged the algos drive it down. Oil will be next under attack in a few months I'm sure, $70 is ok $85+ isn't.
Well, the basket price enjoyed a rather spectacular run. If we agree on that, it is not too exuberant to suggest that downside risk on traded security increased. If you are ok with that view, then it is not a surprise that there is downward pressure once the rosy glasses came off.
So far so good.
However, we are looking at a company which repeatedly demonstrated growth when basket prices where rather modest.
Of course, this past performance does not indicate future direction, but probabilities are that even events like this are well managed and anticipated even (read the few last ARs carefully).
To sum it up, I still see a business that is well run and in a market where, one a 2-3 year horizon, there is a deficit in the product they offer. Whatever sentiment indicates, the economic realities (supply and demand) are not something one can dismiss outright.
Lower production of vehicles in general, is surely disappointing for some expectations. And there are rather good alternatives around. But transport of all sorts is still the life blood of the economy. It will be difficult to transition way from it in a short timeframe.
This uncertainty of events causes market volatility, in that the views on how this may play out in the near future is something that is not established. It is only now that fingers point to the ecological problem of lithium mining, and the recycling of EV batteries at large via more accessible channels to the public at large.
I'm just going to ride this out and take advantage of overselling.
It is impossible to predict the future, but a well run company at a valuation rather favourable to the defensive investor, it is simply a matter of "just riding it out". The only other consideration is to increase ones holdings further or to simply do nothing. We shall all know approaching December when the next AR is due.
Haven't seen that Bloomberg article but I'm betting it included a reference to the wealthy and infamous Barker brothers/family who attempted to corner the entire world market in silver.
It's now the default textbook best example of bankruptcy ruination and criminal fraud charges that await market manipulators.
Thanks Velo. Just read a bloomberg article on the history of commodities/price manipulation, it always ended badly for the manipulator.
Must admit, the closing prices I'm seeing tonight for SLP - and JLP/THS, I just wasn't expecting until the closing days of June - in 9 trading days time.
Seriously, I wasn't.
And the reason for that, is yet again manipulation by China. This could all backfire spectacularly on China if they keep up with this meddling.
Last occasion it peaked in one day. But it's triple witching day tomorrow where debts are settled, piper's paid and balances, balanced. So no telling what direction in the days after Friday, all SP's could go. Some could panic over Chinese manipulation, whilst they grapple with Friday's separate demands.
Whatever, I was hoping to at least buy-in to my experimental account for SLP in the 118's at best (or 120 max)
- yet here it is tonight, not at the end of the month!
The SP has shown a decisive tendency for the final day of June to be - the lowest - of the entire month, and not beaten by an intra-month low earlier in the month (only one year that occurred).
So if the SP drops lower than 118 - (to buy) I will buy an initial tranche before month's end.
But really, a big thing to say; I'm expecting to pick up 118/120 at the end of this month regardless anyway, without effort, so plenty to think about this weekend.
After the mid month review (late last night) I thought 129 was on the cards - and there it was today - too soon!
Yes, even allowing for XD day. Whatever, if I can buy THS for 129 outright (as to buy was still in the low 130's today, whilst mid price was showing 129).
So had set my mind on 120's generally, but will triple witching day onwards offer greater rewards?
Decision: part-tranche buy if can buy at 129, and top-up if there are even lower drops.
Mid month review revealed 17's a distinct possibility, so looking to buy no matter what circumstances if I can bag 17's as I regard 17's in JLP as the ultimate possible low over June/July - after which it's goodbye to even just thinking about 17's again for JLP this year.
All depends on China effect/ combined with the launch of triple witching weekend and that effect into the following days to this month's end.
I thought the resultant mid month reappraisal was just clearing up over generous projections by the computer - but China has revealed its hand and the computer was only picking up their manipulation of PGM's.