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Hello Landicaamans.
For SLN I am averaging at £2.00 exactly and whilst a frustrating journey with this share I have always believed in the underlying technology and I am so pleased that a big pharma has chosen to support its growth.
In terms of Dana I have been supporting Tom Cross who made that project happen through his new venture in PMG. PMG has also been frustrating . However, Tom's leadership will eventually prevail in my humble opinion. Plus I am really excited about POG who are on the rise and I hope that they along with SLN will support a happy and shameless retirement. DYOR.
Winnertakesall.
ok thanks I agree ...a hold...although after my post yesterday we reached 330 and dropped back but still a blue day :) not much chat here though even given the good recent performance !!! I remember selling shire when I had doubled my money at 300 :) what did they get to 30 pounds plus (to be honest I stopped looking)
pleased I doubled the small holding I have at 50p but anyone know why these are rising so fast each day now....? Makes a change from my sxx holding :(
No problem.
This is worth a watch if you have 6 mins and can stand Jim Cramer for that long.
CEO of Arrowhead Pharma - selling ARWR and the "dream".
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/10/17/arrowhead-ceo-breaks-down-drug-partnerships-with-jj-and-amgen.html
Market Cap/Shareprice of Arrowhead has gone from circa USD200m/USD2 when SLN had a stake to USD3.6bn/USD36... in just over 2 years.
This is obviously a complete guess.
Arrowhead Pharma announced a US listing on 18 Jan 2018 stock price was USD5.72 at the close. On 22 Jan 18 USD60.4m was raised and the stock closed at USD6.39. Assuming the same amount of shares were on issue - I realize this is unlikely but ballpark - that comes out at USD600m or GBP500m in market cap at the time of their raise. That comes out at GBP640p-ish/share if converted to an SLN share price.
I would note that Arrowgrasss' share price went up on the announcement of their raise. It also went up leading up to the raise over a few months, possibly speculation on the raise helped this. I doubt that many UK small cap market companies do asset raises in the US. I would again, guess/common sense, assume that for it to be worthwhile to an investment bank to underwrite it, the market cap and raise would have to be high enough to justify it. So for me that points to around GBP400p/share (or greater) which gets closer to a market cap of USDD500m.
dyor - obviously conjecture on my part/a complete guess as above/take it as you will. I would once again though point to Arrowhead Pharma who have executed on doing exactly what I have outlined above. Same industry, had the same market cap, did a raise, basically the same company but 2 years ahead. The road map is there SLN just need to follow.
Also, Solomon in the recent proactive interview implied the listing was not imminent. Although they clearly gave themselves options for completing the listing. To me that says its happening mid next year.
Initially, I was pretty skeptical of the new CEO. In his first interview on proactive, I didn't think he did enough to promote the share. The recent director buys and news flow has shown that my initial view was incorrect. I think there is plenty of newsflow that Solomon can use to get interest around the stock.
My new timeline for news would be something like
This year
* Results of the quark research, which is well delayed.
* Phase1b trials starting for sln124.
* Possible another milestone payment from MNK
* Possible partner deal on another asset but possibly this Extra-hepatic thing
q1 20
* another r&d/marketing day - in preparation for listing.
q2 20
*another r&d/marketing day
* US listing (or in Q3)
2020 news
* Milestone payments from mnk
* Deal with this lp(a) "asset". Basically another mnk type deal. I'd guess this will be a big upfront payment.
* Naming of the two "Earlier stage, as yet undisclosed, proprietary programs"
* if not announced in 19, a collaboration deal on the Extra-hepatic delivery.
* Some of the other assets progress through the clinical stages
* Possible - Mnk takes up the options on the other two assets.
* Takeover of SLN at anytime by a large cap pharma or other RNA company.
FWIW, the recent director buys and Quested's increase in holding have also assuaged my concerns re: Mallinkrodt/opoid settlement and its affect on the collaboration deal with S
Hi ldcms
Like you I've been in here and suffered a while. Got in on the binary legal case, deliberated afterwards and by that stage it was all over. Very happy with the rebound (clearly).
I'd just repeat my potential catalysts which I believe will all happen this year. I have added a few based of the rnd day.
This year
* The r&d day - widening investor base.
* Potential USA listing - possibly linked to the above.
* Results of the quark research, which is well delayed.
* Phase1b trials starting for sln124.
Possibly this year but likely next
* A milestone payment from mnk
* Deal with this lp(a) "asset". Basically another mnk type deal. I'd guess this will be a big upfront payment.
* Naming of the two "Earlier stage, as yet undisclosed, proprietary programs"
* A collaboration deal on the Extra-hepatic delivery (who knew about that, prior to end day).
Possible next year
Mnk takes up the options on the other two assets.
Defn next year
Some of the other assets progress through the clinical stages
I look at arrowhead pharma, basically same company 2 years ago, same field etc. SLN/Avi M even bought some shares in it. Now has usd3b market cap.
List in the US, announce a deal with LP(a) or one of these other things. I don't see why the market cap here shouldn't be a usd1b.
I am no biotech expert. First company like this I've ever invested in and obviously biotech is inherently risky. As I've been in this for 2 years starting to understand a little. Obviously I'm optimistic.
GL and ATB.
Yesterday's presentation is here https://www.silence-therapeutics.com/media/1968/sln_rd-day_2019-slides.pdf
It's big slide deck.
Of note to me is the outlook on slide 133, early stage as yet undisclosed programs and numerous collaborations being explored - key priority. Slide 12 has development pipeline, slide 24 has expected newsflow and company milestones, it doesn't appear to have the undisclosed programs in here but I'm sure they will be announced prior to the end of 2020.
Possible US listing and takeover always a possibility.
This is slide 133 outlook
"SLN124
> SLN124 Phase Ib commences soon with interim results for the Part A (Single Ascending Dose)
expected in 2020
> Phase Ib trial is expected to fully readout in H2 2021
SLN360
> IND and/or CTA expected to be filed in H2 2020
> Phase I trial to start shortly thereafter and funding this program is a key priority for us
SLN500
> Fully funded (directly or through milestones) by Mallinckrodt. IND and/or CTA targeted in H1 2021
Earlier stage, as yet undisclosed, proprietary programs
> At least two Discovery programs ready to enter IND-enabling studies during 2020
Extra-hepatic delivery
> Numerous collaborations being explored. This is a key priority"
Potential positive catalysts I can think of
The r&d day - widening investor base.
Potential USA listing - possibly linked to the above.
Deal with this lp(a) "asset". Basically another mnk type deal.
Results of the quark research, which is well delayed.
Phase1b trials starting for sln124.
As always, takeover, this is too cheap compared to comparable US companies imho. I would assume plenty of large pharma companies like to buy this type of company, new medical industry currently being "proved".
I think most investors are waiting to see what they say at the R&D event this afternoon...
Transcript from yesterday's MNK presentation. Well worth a read in my opinion. SLN has a brief mention
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4289885-mallinckrodt-plcs-mnk-presents-wells-fargo-securities-2019-healthcare-conference-transcript
Mr Smith.Thank you.Gotmiester.
There are a lot of people sitting on some big gains with this share. An absence of news will see the share price drifting. When it finds it's level of resistance and remains stabilize for a while then perhaps buy in?
I'm sure the chart for this company is going to display some large spikes and retraces over time . As always trying to identify the moment of one's entry and exit is the tricky bit.
Good Evening.I have been following SLN for about two or three weeks now after I noticed that it was at the top of SP increases one day.Looked at the available info and saw that the SP was rising dramatically after a tie up with a US Drug manufacturer that looked like a great deal for them.When it got as far as 2.24 last week thought that I might take a punt as all the fundementals were in place.However since the high the SP is going south at an alarming rate,down 39p in just over a week.
I can't see anything that has dramatically changed in such a short period of time,no bad news,nor no good news.I have been watching the daily volumes since the 20th and they have been very low,less than 10k some days.Today was much changed volume wise in excess of 300k,mainly sells and one 100k sale.As I hadn't seen SLN till the positive article about the tie up, is this share one that is being manipulated by our old friends the MM's or are there shorters about.Is there any bad news stories hidden away.? Still think that this share is worth a punt,any info or advise from current holders would be much appreciated. Gotmiester.
Well, well over that £2 mark.... where will it end - £5??!!
Buys are not here for the 10%... significant value uplift yes - looking like a stinking buy to beyond £2..
Hi everyone, great to see the rise here. Has anyone got broker targets other than that from Peel Hunt? I see they have 143p of which is far to conservative
Interesting point on share talk, about the £2.50 - 2.60 , think it will be there fairly soon and with the right news, much further North. AIMHO but as always DYOR
Not many genuine long term holds on AIM but this is one and it’s looking good...over £5 in a few years genuinely possible- BUY
Technically, this closed above last week's intraday highs, closed close to the high, still above average volume. Looks like blue sky to 2 quid. Could get there rapidly.
This is a pretty bullish interview.
The deal is usd20m +10m research funding +5m in equity. Initially most here and elsewhere reported on the usd20m +5m equity.
The sales and development payments of circa 2bn PLUS royalty payments in the teens. Initially most here and elsewhere concentrated on the 2bn potential payments.
He also highlights that this is related to these assets only. The LP(a) thing to me sounded more expensive but wtfdik.
Personally as there are no comparables in the UK market, I don't think this is getting valued correctly. I think there is more to come from the management.
Arwr arrowhead pharma had a similar deal with Johnson and johnson. Is a competitor listed in the US. SLN had some ownership history with them. Their share price has gone from circa 5bucks to nearly 30 during SLN involvement and their deal with jnj. It shows the pathway and potential for this deal.
I think we are at 3 pounds or higher sometime this year, and likely higher than 5 at some stage next year. Pretty optimistic guesses I know... Could prove conservative. Happy to hear criticism.
Looking great.... this could be mega...
All sounding very positive and lots of investment continuing. GLA especially for the people who need it most.
Big boy investment last week... going one way hopefully..