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https://www.buildersmerchantsjournal.net/housing-and-rmi-drive-construction-industry-recovery/
Every little helps, and there are quite a lot of them. "According to the survey the recovery was led by small construction firms, with output among companies rising at the fastest pace for nearly 20 years (June 2001)."
( it's got a 1 in it )
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/small-business-activity-construction-manufacturing-services-uk-economy-coronavirus-230100656.html
Kingspan issued a trading statement today - not the same but insulation and all that. May be a small further indication of 2nd quarter for Sig - "The Group's trading outlook for the second quarter is positive with ongoing strong momentum across most key markets". They have been doing well in Europe also.
I’ve said all shares will fall in May. I’ve never singled out SIG. I’ve always said long term the price will rise.
I don’t see that as being all over the place. Share prices go up and down all the time.
You are all over the place. Dont think you ever said sig shares would fall? that's what this discussion is all about! Something along the lines of a 40% drop in may. Now its £2 a share?! You are beyond belief. Goodbye.
Mick.
Earlier in the month you tell us you are a newbie that cant check the divi history of this stock, that you have made it the largest part of your portfolio but that you expect it to fall. All your research is based on stockopaedia reports that change more frequently than the british weather and other random forecasts you read from whichever investing pop up happens to appear on your computer screen. Forgive me if I think you really live up to your user name and have no place risking your money in the stock market let alone presuming to tell others what to do based on your extensive stockopaedia research. I have a other pigeon hole for you.
I don’t think I’ve ever said I don’t know how to check dividend history. I invested in SIG before I had any idea what I was doing. This was based on cursory research and my knowledge of the company having worked for them.
I then discovered Stockopedia and my learning has increased exponentially. I also don’t think I’ve ever said SIG shares will fall. I expect them to in the short term but long term to go over £2. That’s if the strategy the current board is employing works and based on the economic boom that is just around the corner.
With hindsight I wouldn’t have invested so much in SIG but for now I’m in profit so I’m going to hold. Of course I will sell at the end of April along with all my other construction stocks and rebut later in the year.
I’ve looked at all the yearly charts ending in the years that have a 1 in them. I’ve then used this information along with the other stuff I’ve mentioned to come up with my forecast.
I’m not into day trading and don’t use charts that way or have any interest in doing so. I’m looking at years down the line and chart history can tell us a lot about the future.
Here’s another prediction for you. Around 2026/2027 stock markets will fall about 80%. I’ll be ready. Will you?
But what will it do at 1432 on Thursday based on your historic data? That's not how charts work.
Charts going back many decades. And your answer was May 2021! Really?!
Mick.
Earlier in the month you tell us you are a newbie that cant check the divi history of this stock, that you have made it the largest part of your portfolio but that you expect it to fall. All your research is based on stockopaedia reports that change more frequently than the british weather and other random forecasts you read from whichever investing pop up happens to appear on your computer screen. Forgive me if I think you really live up to your user name and have no place risking your money in the stock market let alone presuming to tell others what to do based on your extensive stockopaedia research. I have a other pigeon hole for you.
GCN I’ve looked at plenty of charts going back many decades to help come up with my forecast. I’ve also looked at where we are in the economic cycle and the work of WD Gann in particular his Financial Forecast. I’ve also been keeping a close eye on the economic indicators for years now and things are playing out just as they should.
GCN it’s not my opinion that most investors don’t use stop losses. It’s a well known fact that is backed up by research.
I don’t want to push prices down by helping to cause some imminent panic. I’d much rather life was simpler and we didn’t have market corrections. Unfortunately we do so I like to be prepared for them.
Banks will always lose money because they never see the bust coming and always get overextended. They then panic and withdraw credit leading to recessions and depressions.
It’s how the economic cycle works and knowing how it plays out should be required understanding for any investor. If you don’t know about it you are more of a gambler than an investor.
Mick you have a pretty low opinion of other investors dont you? To suggest many dont use stops is rediculous. Those you refer to are gamblers not investors or traders. Incidentally I put you in the gambling pigeon hole gambling on a correction that you believe in after reading some circumspect article and other similar research. Take a look at a chart for once.
GCN I don’t think I’ve ever said it was a fact. It’s my prediction based on all my research. Of course I accept I could be wrong.
If I am I will lose a small amount of money. If I’m right I will make a fair bit of money. It’s up to others to take a view on things. Most investors don’t use stop losses. If I’m right or wrong then using a stop loss could be very useful for the next month or so.
If I’m wrong nothing lost. If I’m right a lot of money saved. I’m backing myself by cashing everything in at the end of April. I’ll then get back in when the market has dropped (probably about September/October).
Please feel free to ignore my forecast. I just know I would have felt bad not letting others know of what I’m confident will happen.
Ha raleigh. Absolutely not alone.
Agreed, this is all a load of tosh - some just want to push prices down by causing some imminent panic. If it were this predictable then banks would never lose, but they do.
2026? C'mon. I can't be alone as a Sig punter in not giving a stuff.
GCN. Anyway, they can't both be right, can they?
So what's it worth actually. Zilch.
I don’t see inflation rearing it’s head for the next 4 or 5 years. My studies of inflation indicate quite strongly that we are in a current low inflation century. I also feel the current level of QE, though incredibly high is justified given the economic situation we are currently in. I expect inflation to rise a bit by about 2026 which will then lead to increases in interest rates which will cause the mother of all busts.
I’m sticking with the bust happening then as while ever there is plentiful credit about there will not be a bust. The credit taps have been turned on but there is plenty more to come over the next 4 or 5 years. That’s why Covid has not destroyed the world economy as many so called experts predicted.
Once credit starts drying up you know the bust isn’t far behind. Until then there is plenty of money to be made by investing in assets.
Prof. it is not mick's suggestion that we will have a market correction that i take objection to (this may or may not happen at any time) but the apparent 'fact' that it will happen in May +/- 2 weeks. This is clearly utter nonsense.
There's loads of stuff and opinion out there. Take your pick. Here's one.
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/stock-market-outlook-2021
And some of it gets regurgitated on here.
What an interesting discussion we have here! Apologies for my silence, I've been typing furiously elsewhere.
To start with, Mick has been claiming that we'll have a major correction in May 2021 for months now. I think his comments are genuine and based on his research. As such, thank you Mick for this contribution.
There is also some truth in what Mick says. The markets have been running on the steroids of Extreme monetary and fiscal stimuli. At some point, these extreme measures will have to pause or even reverse. The government cannot be printing money (Quantitative Easing -- asset buying which creates money, to some extent) or paying for every worker's salary etc forever. When these measures pause/reverse, I expect the start of a mild fall, yes.
In addition, there has also been a crowd of new investors entering the stock market -- these people could turn to be panicky, aggravating any fall (but I'm not entirely sure about this -- some say that the new investors have a gargantuan appetite for risk. We'll see about that).
We also have the danger of inflation (where is that bloody thing? I've been waiting for it since 2014) which will make government bonds way more appealing and will thus deprive the stock markets from funds, leading to a fall.
And we have a number of other risks. New nasty variants for one, protectionism, policy mistakes, wars etc. Between these, I'd single out the danger of a string of major bankruptcies against a context of a weakened economy.
However... even though history kinda repeats itself, it doesn't do that in a precise fashion. In fact, every crisis we've had in the last 100 years was partly unique. The mechanisms/causes in 1928 were different to those in the 70s and were all different to 2008 or 2021.
Nobody can predict the timing of a crisis. Partly because we can't predict human reaction and policy makers' reactions.
If I were to brave a prediction on such an unpredictable thing, I'd say that: a) the mother of all recessions could well hit us sooner than 2026. Much sooner.
b) these will be a much smaller correction in the stock markets at some point. I personally expect this to happen close to the end of the summer (for various reasons)
c) SIG will be affected by the correction but much less than other shares. This is a recovery, value share.
GLA
And there we have it. 'Stick with me and youll know how to make a fortune'. Self proclaimed guru. Thats enough now mick.
I am a big student of history. Most people believe that history does not repeat and it is impossible to predict the future. They couldn’t be more wrong.
There will be a market correction this year and I expect it to be early May when it starts. I could be out by a week or two. Nothing in life is certain to that degree.
I am also certain there will be the biggest economic boom in history over the next 4 or 5 years starting in 2022. This will be followed by the biggest bust ever. In 2026/2027 I expect shares to lose approximately 80% of their value.
The only thing that can stop this happening is an event equivalent to a world war.
Stick with me and you’ll know how to make a fortune on the back of timing the markets.