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Tony - indeed, plus imo that's very conservatively attributing little or nothing to more exploration success over the coming year(s), which I'd be very surprised if there wasn't some at least. Fingers crossed for no more hiccups and this could be a very exciting few years from this now low base.
Plenty of buys coming today. Anyone buying in for the first time will have a great entry point. The rest of us have a good opportunity to average our price down.
My logic tells me that the 116,000 ounces in resources at 6.47g/t mixed with a similar amount of ore at 2.0 g/t of which Luika has plenty to give 4g/t and taking a 60% conversions to reserves and 90% after recoveries etc gives 180,000 ounces of Luika production over 2.25 years. I am taking this from 2020 and 2021 drilling results. The company has done additional drilling since then some of which is identified where not to drill and they have an interesting decline in Porcupine. The confidence level that 3 mill set up can deliver 3 good years at 80,000 Luika still exists after which a 4th mill and new crusher required to work through 4 plus years of lower grade ores and that is when they need Kenya mine to be under construction at least. Singida has interesting areas of high grade ore that can also be blended with lower grades to give consistent production numbers.
Shanta is an investment share and today was tough and it will have its ups and downs. Investors will hopefully be patient and traders will have their chances here as well. Both groups are possibly putting Eric in last chance saloon. When the company had debt he performed quite well. Once the debt got paid we have experienced some let downs. Hopefully today is the last let down for some time and the focussed and disciplined consistency we have seen before soon returns on hitting all the targets.
There was a £450k sell printed around midday, along with some £30k and £50k sells too here and there.
There were multiple buys too above £100k and overall buys exceeded sells by quite a margin and so I'd expect this to be back at 12-13p soon enough.
Ridiculous drop today and the remaining shares at 9/10p will be gobbled up in the morning.
Closing shorts
What i'm still waiting to see is the large sell transaction to more than balance out the massive buying today.
For me, the biggest snag in WK is where are the 500+ families going to be resettled and who is going to pay the bill? The obstacles around Saza and Singida have been relatively slight.
Perhaps Nairobi will provide the wonga and services as they want a gold industry.
Really is an exceptionally silly list of criticisms from the Colonel's lackey....it's now bad the company raising money at a good price, having to give a cut to a government like every miner - shock horror, buying an excellent asset from Barrick is bad, hedging production in the past - like most gold miners do was oh so silly, etc, etc.
Always get these clowns on a drop, trying to squeeze the final few sellers out, for their own benefit.
AT - All over the place with that one . . . for starters, no mountains around Kakamega/Kisumu. And Singida didn't fail: it just took longer than anticipated. Also, as CD will be the first to admit, he doesn't know everything: look at his 000s of posts on SOLG . . . way off piste. Following his and other predictions there has lost folk a pile of dosh. Bristow's decision with WK/Acacia was part of some housekeeping. What are you going to say if Shanta proves up a 5m oz Bushi/Isulu resource next year?
In addition you got "massive loss" feature wrong.
I was thinking about reinvesting at this level for a second or two ......then I remembered why I sold out. Was it the retail offer at 16.5p which allowed Barrick to sell off ? Was it the .001p dividend? Was it the failed IPO for Singida? or maybe the massive Loss on selling gold forward at $1200/oz? or perhaps the VAT problem or was it buying an old mine somewhere in the distant mountains of Kenya from Barrick who would never sell an asset of great potential after it had explored the life out of it? OR maybe the Tanzanian Government wanting 16% of the mines? and extra Royalties....... No it was when I saw the Colonel had sold out and if he is out I'm not in
Colonel - thanks for the heads up but I already follow the stock (long term) so know the big picture ;)
Not arguing with you but there are a number of snapshots in time you can take but ultimately it will come down to market sentiment (provided fundamentals are promising enough of course)
Market sentiment currently is very poor. Sentiment in PM sector is very poor but will not stay like that. In a bull run everything will go up to a certain degree or another.
That didn't last long. Couldn't last a few hours without thinking up another contrived way to say please don't invest here.
Cplloyd - yeah, you're right to correct that post which was a bit hurried, as the value of stuff that's been left in the ground is ballpark $12m, it will depend how much of the costs are fixed and how much are variable, but yeah, in the short-term, in terms of cash-flow, it'd be less cash flowing into the account, however in terms of assets/value, the gold is still there in the ground rather than having vanished. The taxes/royalties would have been paid on it in short-order anyway - so it's probably more like half this number in terms of short term cash-flow that would have been sitting there.
Doing the maths from todays announcement regarding a reduction in production guidance:
Worst case scenario - down from 65k ozs to 55k ozs that’s 15% reduction
Best case scenario - down from 60k ozs to 57k ozs that’s just 5% reduction
The SP is down 23%. That is clearly a typical market overshoot in terms of reaction. I was already thinking Shanta was starting to look decent value before todays news.
This has sealed the deal for me. I’m back in @ 9p.
Main risk for me is operating in Tanzania but other more positive factors overall risk reward ratio tips it in favour
RTN - not sure you can just say $400 x 7k, surely AISCs are calculated on a p/oz basis so if you produce 7k less the costs are shared between less oz's and are therefore greater. Whilst this is clearly oversold I think you probably have to use the full current price of gold x oz's under guidance to see the loss to cash flow, maybe knock of a small amount to be generous so its probably closer to $10m than $1m. Counter to this is the market must already have been expecting to some extent a drop in guidance due to the issues earlier in the year and there could well be a recovery of some of these lost oz's if we have move past these last two issues.
I think if we take the recent drilling results and the word of the board that we are beyond the problems then this would easily be value at twice where it is now, but sadly they have lost the markets trust (they already had which probably is the reason that great drilling results have merely been a selling opportunity for many). I think if people are brave they can make a lot of money here but it's time for the board to start rebuilding trust and LTH's have to make a decision if they wish to sit and wait for that to happen or not. You'd not think there is room for a large downside here (though who knows!) so if production can get back on track and moves can be made on the new mines then you'd think there should be some good gains in 2022.
Can't help but wonder if this was a "contrived" dip with the West Kenya resource update in early 2022 in mind. Some fairly hefty buys went through. Too cynical?
Yes, the drop is completely out of proportion to then news, but this is AIM and you have to expect all disappointing news to come with a hammering, and this hammering was clearly set up before the actual news dropped, again, AIM being AIM.
Down 22%??? this has always been a mad share for some reason
@ColonelDrake -- you really read the news release? the problem is fixed and the mine is no aging mine ..the exploration-results are good and the mine has a good future .. ... NLGM 's exploration results are more as OK...
"The current reserve life at New Luika has been extended to 2026, and we are continuing to
invest in exploration programmes aimed at extending the mine life, with recent discoveries at
the Porcupine South deposit adding further life to New Luika once incorporated into the mine
plan. We look forward to publishing a reserve and resource update for New Luika in Q1 2022.
As we transition to a 100,000+ oz gold producer in 2023, ongoing exploration will play a critical
role in sustainably extending and adding to Shanta’s production profiles over time to maximise
the social impact of our assets on the ground and in returns for shareholders"
Colonel - You're just putting 2+2 and making 22, then claiming you're right, all because a piece of 3rd party equipment broke down. That's nothing to do with an ageing mine or any other picture you're trying to spuriously paint.
Do you know what the next problem is either? My guess is NO. Well it's not a guess.....you don't know. Unless you're a saboteur of the site as well as the messageboard ;)
The reality is you're trying to make out like everything is a disaster, because of a piece of duff kit which has now been fixed, and which doesn't relate to the issue earlier in the year.
As I say, I think you've been making rather transparent attempts to scaremonger since you sold, and I imagine it'll stop immediately if/when you buy back in, in the future ;)
And Shanta Claus doesnt seem to be coming either, starting to think that that must have been Eric in disguise off to a fancy dress party. 1 year of bad news starting with the board share sales. Let´s hope they´ve chucked all the bad news out.
The problem is resolved, the drake has flown LOL
Keep watching
Clintek, why? It's been on a downward trend for a fair while.
Watch this bounce within 5 minutes or so. Watching Level 2 and its rammed.