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Haven’t the markets already took a battering in anticipation of this? The French and German stock markets didn’t do a repeat of March when they announced lockdown again did they? Fingers crossed for a tomorrow.
I’m trying not t beat myself up too much for not selling. Good luck All.
Rossannan, there were many people who thought they were being smart sitting in cash in March/April as they watched the v-shaped rally all the way up! Not so smart in retrospect. It may be smart this time, then again it may not.
Miagi365
Is the sensible approach to gold not to assume that the arguments for it will be proved right in the end but that in the short term (on the back of this second wave and the upcoming election) it could go either way? Cash may indeed be king right now - well done to anyone who is currently sitting in cash.
BtB, bringing up your post from Tuesday and here we are with a full lockdown in place for November. You were right about that.
I'd be interested to hear your take on the following: many people, including you it appears, think that this will be a carbon copy of March - i.e. there will be a great big crash followed by a decent recovery. Said people have learnt their lesson the first time and have sold early this time and are armed to the teeth with cash because they are going to make a killing on the inevitable drop...when have the markets ever been so kind as to present such a predictable, clear cut opportunity! If many people are already in cash, in preparation for the "big drop", who are the sellers going to be?! In fact, much of the big money has remained sat on the sidelines since early 2020 and has remained so. I think that there is a whole lot of cash already sat on the sidelines, and that will be fuel for the next leg up when they realised that they called it wrong, again!
The same applies to gold. I think that it is a mistake to think that this time around will be the same as in March. Gold has not had a huge selloff (so far) and neither have the markets (so far).
It's going to be a very "interesting" week to see how this all plays out, complicated by the US elections of course.
Maybe things aren't as bad as they appear Tornadotony. As someone who has worked from home for many years I can testify to the fact that the adverts on UK daytime television have always been overwhelmingly for funeral plans and donkey sancturies. No COVID change there. Still, it's better than living in The States where it's all erectile disfunction and incontenance pants.
AND the best thing is we don’t need to jv this. It’s 100 percent ours and we have the ability to monetise the asset too. You cannot ignore the potential.
Now that’s what I’m talking about viable. We can only put certain clues together at this stage but the reality is this could be a serious discovery. Massive Ore body’s are the in thing Right now for investors. At $200-250 dollars an ounce in situ value it’s absolutely no wonder Eric and co want 3 drill rigs turning.
I'm not about to claim I have any answers but when a certain Mr Leslie apparently spends £4.9m in one swallow it's time to rethink. Likewise, when EZ highlights Quebec and Kalgoorlie greenstone belts it's time to do some more specific reading. So part of the evening has been given to -
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1464343X16301248 which included
"A test drill hole proposed on the basis of the geophysical results of this study struck massive sulphides at a depth of 30m still within the weathered rock zone. Unfortunately, the drilling was stopped before the sulphides could be penetrated. The drill core revealed massive sulphide rich in pyrite and pyrrhotite".
and -
http://earthsci.org/mineral/mindep/ma_sulp/ma_sulp.html
The latter should be given careful scrutiny as it is so informative to a layman (also for anyone in SOLG).
Unfortunately my hands-on knowledge is restricted to NoordKaap, the Kalahari and Namibia. Kenya and Tanzania have been more about riveting landscapes and perhaps the many ancient volcanoes.
Shanta could turn out to be a remarkable story.
At present every other person is guessing POG's next move is up, which it could very well be, but normally when everyone is expecting things to go one way, things tend to give/do the complete opposite.
Most were expecting SP to be around 25p by Xmas, but reality turns out to be completely opposite and now looking more likely to be heading towards 15p not 25p...imho....dyor.
I would say that I have applied BBs strategy to 1/8 of my portfolio so far. I can see that extending to a quarter but that is about it. A lot of my positions including Shanta are long term holds and I suspect the value of the pound or for that matter 16.1p is going to be far less in a few years so I am not sure actually matters trying to time the market.
I question if the public will be so compliant with future lock down strategies. First they are extremely fed up with it. We are losing far more lives on a daily basis on the impacts of Covid-19 rather than the virus itself. The number of suicides on London tube transport for example is very high from those who I know work in that sector. There is a health versus health conflict on top of economic arguments. The most popular adverts on the television during the day appear to be for funeral plans and to save the lives of donkeys which suggests proper advertising is on the back burner for many companies. The upshot is that who will police everybody's Christmas in a few weeks time and how many will try and find a flight somewhere to escape and who will police their return on the obedience to self isolation. In the end a lot of best efforts may be made and folks try to carry on living. The extensions etcetera to houses get built, that fancy Dyson vacuum cleaner gets bought by those with cash to spend. Somehow throwing in the towel just now and seeing everything crashes and we descend into what we have seen happening in Nigeria of late is the immediate direction we are heading. Thankfully here in Britain spitting image is making a comeback and that is the kind of spirit that may get us through a lot of idiocy. So whatever investment decisions one takes be sure to evaluate your risk tolerance and time scales to manage it. Its helpful to see Eva's views and BBs as they show active management strategies.
BTTB,
One of my finest memories of Thanksgiving Day Turkey in the US was at a good friend of mines house in Memphis, TN just after the 2008 Obama Election. It’s the first time I have ever seen a whole turkey deep fried in a pot of oil in his back yard, It was delicious, but one wrong move and the house was getting burned to a crisp, there must have been 10 gallons of oil in there under a propane stove and he just plopped the turkey in it lol.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/shg/ownership
Repeat of post early October. Suggest notes be taken of holders via the above link. Click in all tabs. The records will change on 1st November.
I have had another look following EZ's declaration of "incredible interest". How many of them will convert that interest into a stakeholding? And how many of those who have been selling be revising upwards?
BBBear, following on from your Thanksgiving observation...We've been told that only 6 people are allowed to meet for Thanksgiving, but 30 for a funeral. With this in mind, I announce that we will be holding a funeral for our pet turkey who will pass away on Nov. 26. Refreshments provided.
In lieu of flowers please bring a side or dessert.
:)
For me I’m staying put. I may be able to get in an out with some profit and then be able to come back in again, but I might also **** it up and lose out on it, these are the risks I guess.
The story of the remainder of the year however, which will cement Gold’s long term bull run is the US, not the election, but the COVID-19 rates IMO. At circa 70k new cases per day and zero national plan to deal with that (whatever you may think that should be) they will go into the Thanks Giving Holiday (where 125 million people take to the roads and travel somewhere in country) where IMO you will see COVID-19 infections sore to 100k+ per day (and probably way beyond).
There could be meltdown coming in the US and with it I expect Biden to throw open the spending on a scale to GDP not seen since the Great Depression, New Deal era and with it you will see the Greenback tank.
I am not too fused short term, 20% here or there, as the medium to long term will easily outweigh this.
It would suit me to have another top-up in the next hour . . .
though unsure how the Barrick overhang is going to play out.
Have a sense it could drag on to Friday.
Who knows.
Viable, not just Shanta: global markets. A repeat of March. You'll recall we saw approx 30% falls in markets generally, but these falls were amplified in the mining sector.
I'm not exiting the sector altogether: just taking profits, paring my exposure & building a war chest to BTFD. I remain a huge fan of SHG & am still up 30%+ despite the recent fall....just seeing a (rather big) bump in the road ahead that I'm looking to avoid.
GLA.
Tricky, to say the least.
Are you in fact saying SHG will collapse by a third?
Or are you sure South Africans (tenfold purchasing power decline), Zimbabweans (many thousandfold), Kenyans/Tanzanians (100fold+ in their shillings) would have been better off staying in cash for 20 years . . . had they stored bills under their beds? Many of them still practise the habit.
Frequent visitors to this board will recall I have previously stated my belief in there being a "March-esque correction" in global stock markets before the end of the year. With that in mind, over recent weeks I have been taking profits from my best performing miners, recouping my original investment & only leaving the profits invested.
Well, over recent weeks, events have only strengthened this belief. It seems the northern hemisphere is on the verge of another extended lockdown throughout the
Winter & into Spring. To anyone who says that governments would be mad to do such a thing, I don't disagree. However, there is an Agenda (21) at play here & I am now absolutely convinced it is coming regardless.
Consequently, I am accelerating the sale of my holdings & am looking to unload approx 50% of my position & sit on the side-lines in cash. Don't get me wrong....Miners are still the place to be: I am a huge believer in the sector (which makes up 60%+ of my portfolio) but I just see it (& everything else) getting clobbered in the near term. I foresaw the March collapse but stayed invested. This time I'm backing my instincts.
I'll be a buyer again once the market has fallen 30% (or more). See you on the other side.
GLA.