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Phoenix own 58.09%
Lombard Odier own 7.74%
So roughly 1/3 of the shares are owned / held elsewhere.
Correction. They own nearly 60% of the business.
Lombard Odier own almost 8%.
As far any other "institutional investor " according the Corporate web site, 0 have more 3%, probably because there isn't enough liquidity to offer a big enough deployment of funds. Hence that profit destroying spread.
"it looks like an institutional investor has taken a small position"
So we are in agreement that's just a guess. There's no evidence.
"they would normally be an obvious takeover target were it not for their debt."
And that's debt owed to the major shareholder, so they aren't an obvious take over target now. So it looks like we are in agreement again.
"Phoenix's shareholding is only then a barrier to a bidder"
Unless I've missed something, those shares aren't being sold. They still own nearly 65% of the business and control the (mountain) of debt (in relation to the market cap.)
" That is why institutional investors may already be getting back in."
But we don't have evidence of that do we. The level of debt and controlling shareholder would be an issue for some, possibly for many of them. So that's just specualtion again.
I think it has some merits as business, even more so as a private business, but you've been saying it's just round the corner for what now? a couple of years?
"the debt must also start rapidly falling away."
I'm not going to bother checking this, but I believe the last report indicated it had grown and they were still loss making.
I know after your big loss on Debenhams you want this to come good, I guess you are down, but turn-arounds take time and patience.
Facts, not wishful thinking, will recoupe your losses.
I still hold the idea, considered or not, that when the debt comes due, from memory in 2023, we'll know if the bathers are wearing costumes or not. No rush, unless you are in a rush to exit your holding....
Time, patiences and facts.
On the " £3m + per year", as far as I can remember the company suggested in it's last report "they are only at the early stages", so if I've missed something, I'd appreciate you sharing where they've forecast £3m + anytime soon. I'd like to see that, even better of they've forecast it.
Devon, these are all fair comments that you make. But I am not saying that an institutional investor is buying in, just because they aim to make a takeover offer for the company. Far from it, their objectives would be similar to smaller investors - they scent a turnaround story taking place here. With margins around 45%, once SG starts making profit properly, they would normally be an obvious takeover target were it not for their debt. But the debt is a red herring here as again, once profit starts to come in, but they make say £3m + per year which should soon become possible, the debt must also start rapidly falling away.
For me, the model here is Game Development which shares many similarities with SG, especially since the company's goods are again not necessities but hobby related. Phoenix's shareholding is only then a barrier to a bidder whilst these barriers remain but they are dropping away fast. Any offer considered by Lombard Odier would have to be considered by Phoenix. As the turnaround continues to take hold, and sales continue to rise [and 2020 should be great with the various events due], I cannot see how profits won't follow. That is why institutional investors may already be getting back in.
If you look at the links you can see they can make use of the Companies Act to make enquiries about beneficial holders.
That's a power that permits companies from buidling a stake without declaring it.
There's a whole industry around analysis, proxy and engagement, so acquirers have to be very motivate to make a hidden positions. in this case why do that? It's a small business, with a small cap and almost 70% of the equity on the hands of 2 shareholders. That's a very unlikely target for a hostile approach.
Just for you information:
https://equiniti.com/uk/services/eq-boardroom/registration-services/investor-analytics/
Computershare offer the same function through Georgeson https://www.georgeson.com/us/
They work on registers they manage and those they don't.
SGI's Registrar was IRG, which was Barclays Registrars. Later bought by Capita Registrars which was recently bought by Link.
They also provided a similar service looking through registers for beneficial holders.
"Pretty hard to check with the Registrar when the holding may be held in nominee form."
Which begs the question, how have you worked it out then?
If you don't think it's possible for the likes of Equiniti ( with it's billion turnover) and Computershare ( who manage registers for 16,000 companies) how did you then?
" I would say this investor currently owns 1.25m shares" how do you know that?
Pretty hard to check with the Registrar when the holding may be held in nominee form.
Registrar -it's been a long day.
" it looks like an institutional investor has taken a small position, below that level at which they have to publicly declare their stake [3% or above]. I would say this investor currently owns 1.25m shares"
How have you worked that out? If there's no RNS, Decleration, can you can possibly know? Isn't that just speculation. If you know of a way of identifying that's happened I'd be interesting in knowing.
Why would they just stop short...it wouldn't be because they didn't want the Company to know. That would fly in the face of the Company just asking the Registra. Afterall, they employ them to carry out that function and they offer all sorts of analysis of the register when they do.
Actually, upon closer consideration, it looks like an institutional investor has taken a small position, below that level at which they have to publicly declare their stake [3% or above]. I would say this investor currently owns 1.25m shares.
Over the last six days, ie since the announcement:
Sells: 169,000 shares
Buys: 2,560,000 shares
Yet the price has barely moved. Time for a move upwards hopefully this week as this cannot continue indefinitely like this.