Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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A pleasant lead in to the broker note released today.
Nigeria’s leading independent energy company We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Seplat is on a discount rating to peers and on compelling forward valuation multiples with upside of 32%-91% to our initial NAV estimates, excluding the potential transformational value from the MPNU and PIA uplifts.
Stocks in Nigeria hit an all time high according to Trading Economics today
Theres has been a big a big swing in sentiment since yesterday re the Fed announcement so im back in at £1.2815 however this is remains my only oil share gla
O&G Company of the year….
https://leadership.ng/leadership-awards-seplat-energy-plc-is-oil-gas-company-of-the-year-2023/
Trek
Sorry posted earlier while editing by accident. Changed from tablet to phone now hopefully better now ;)
Meant to say, rise in NGX doesn't mean Nigeria is booming, but imo reforms including free float of Naira and merging official and parallel exchange rates windows will be a good thing. Also, Nigeria doing LNG deals, privatising NNPC, refining more oil in Nigeria instead of exporting crude might help Seplat. First crude going to Dangote:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120723-first-crude-supply-cargo-en-route-to-nigerias-giant-dangote-refinery
I don't know how an IPO of NNPC would work. Government claimed NNPC 80% ready for IPO. But it does seem to me that instead of interfering with sale of MPNU, it'd fit better with government strategy if NNPC were selling shallow water assets to Seplat instead of trying to buy.
On the LSE/NGX difference, it's obviously a liquidity problem when you have different prices for same share over a LONG time. I don't see Nigerian investors knowing more Eg see Nairaland discussions:
https://www.nairaland.com/search?q=seplat&board=81
Also see limited choices in Nigeria for investors and amongst that Seplat has high a profile. Eg I've seen clips of Seplat on Nigerian TV. And ordinary people in Nigeria know ANOH is coming. In London, Seplat gets ignored. However, Seplat should take opportunity with increased size (post mpnu) to up their profile i think.
I think this is the 5th or 6th time Tom has "sold out last week" and whenever the stock recovered "went back a couple of days ago".
Not confident it's true, nor very confident that type of irrational trading makes any money to talk about.
Brent is oversold, buying opportunity imo. Saudis and Russia need $85 oil.
My comment was about the NGX market which is up 40% this year. Thats not because they know more or whatever. Anyway, I think market reforms including free float of Naira (which has led to devaluation) will turn out to be good thing by Tmean Nigeria is boomingTinubu reforms in Nigeria led to naira devaluation. Sepla
Mmm dare I say it, a small tree shake before some good news, I’ve seen it before them mms love a bit of scare mongering. T.O.D. good to see your still around. Bearing in mind the quite dramatic drop in oil price his is holding up very well. Patients still a must here, as December moves on if there is a flicker of news be sure the sp will let us know. GL all regards H.
27th July i sold at 1.41 put that in your diary ncb
Yes but you only talking a few pence difference so whats the big deal.Anyway i could lose out if the deal is struck it works both ways.
Tom111
Just like you sold out at 140 ish earlier in the year.
Very convenient to post sells at a later date.
A 33% correlation aka Seplat and Brent is highly significant especially given Seplat’s earnings dependency on oil while the black market rate gives a share price of 155p … where a 20% premium about right from memory.
The share has held up well … but looking around, I’m not tempted yet.
The SEPL share price has a very low correlation with Brent, for those interested. I've pointed this out many times previously. In my view, so long as Brent stays >$60-65, by far the primary drivers of this share will be everything else other than Brent.
Sold yesterday that me out of all oilies now just dont like the sector atm.Gla
"there has been the SAME discount for ENTIRE two years"
That's objectively not true: the premium (converted to GBP) is the highest on record and I've benchmarked several years back. Link: https://i.imgur.com/1PJ3CWB.png
Todays trading of 2310 equals 2.29 GBP. The parallel market, which has always existed, is lower bit still a hefty premium.
I don't mind if anyone here doesn't invest in the shares - that's totally fine. However, I would appreciate a standard on the board where everyone at least stick to the facts. Bless.
Someone has just dumped some shares. Quite a drop!
"I'm inclined to believe that local traders know something that we don't."
Yes, but then there has been the same discount to the Nigerian exchange ongoing for the entire two years I have been invested here.
The current +80% premium in the Lagos listing to the LSE listing is not only explained by "inflation & fx". For years and years (during inflation and falling FX) it traded at par, or near par.
While I agree with you that the local FX intervention in 2023 makes the official Naira look a bit overvalued, the black market rate was/is 1035 to the USD this week so it's still a hefty premium. I'm inclined to believe that local traders know something that we don't.
But it doesn't say change OF business, it says change IN business. MPNU deal is massive change for Seplat. Not just size, but change to corporate structure. MPNU will be separate unit of Seplat (with its own board I assume).
Personally, I think its right that Seplat should publish prospectus and shareholders should get a vote. Companies shouldn't be allowed to sidestep consulting shareholders just because because they use cash.
This is my interpretation though, Investor Relations would answer your question I think.
SKON yes but its not a change of business in the true sense of the word
...is due to currency and inflation.
Tom, we know the mpnu deal is reverse takeover from the Seplat proposal. They knew at the time it would be cash deal and their lawyers will have written the proposal. You then have to ask why it's an rto when it's a cash deal and that's why I quoted handbook below.
Nigerian market has risen and so has Seplat share price in Nigeria. But Naira is down by more than half against dollar and pound. So much of rise
Nigerian main market, just for interest is at an all time high up 40% this year which shows a lot of confidence in Nigeria at this time