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We need clarity on the well work overs in tunisia. There should be no delay. These could totally alter the cashflow of the company and the funds for these have already been raised in the recent placing!!!
As for depreciation I did not calculate gas reserves only oil. The oil reserves I used a recoverable factor of 25-35% of actual know resource known as per the presentation. As we have already extracted 1.2% I also deducted this off the 25 and 35% thus using 23.5 and 33.5% respectively of the reserve figures.
Charlie, sorry, I'm not with you. What do you mean by "MY 42% in ground" figure?
It's SENX's estimated assumption of the effective tax rate in Tunisia on Pre-tax profit. Nothing to do with "in the ground" reserves. I'm talking PROFITs, not ASSETS. The Romanian numbers used do not include anything for depreciation, by the way, which you should make allowance for.
So for argument sake as you are yet to provide me or this board with figure or workings to demonstrate your post we take my figures based on Oil only.
£4.6- 5.96 billion add them together = £10.56 divide by to equals an average of £5.28billion x 0.42%= £2.2176 billion.
So taking my figures which used $40 minus cost and a figure of 42% you believe should be used in ground value is still £2.2176 billion but true value would be a lot higher I used much lower figures for recovery and haven’t included gas recovery.
I’m looking forward to reviewing you oil in ground price and gas in ground price figures, I’m guessing I’m not alone.
Still a lot for a £36m company
Also forgot to add gas & oil prices year to date Gas + 55% Crude + 30% SENX - 7% (Not my words taken from the presentation)
But then surely you must work with SENX's assumptions on netbacks including royalties and taxes (42% effective in their presentation), at various price levels, to come up with realistic numbers, or else what's the point of them producing these pages?
I am not an expert on O&G, but I can read company presentations. If you can't accept my numbers, please take it up with Serinus, as I am only taking their costs and revenue figures using realistic spot prices for gas and oil. The basic point stands. Use their company AT netback numbers in your expected revenue projections, and then apply an appropriate PER to them, to arrive at expected MV.
Older and wiser can you expand please, your post is confusing. You have told me my calculations are wrong.
Please in your words explain why they are wrong and provide workings to support your findings.
What I’m finding confusing is that you say oil is valued at $10/Bl for oil and much lower for gas.
I reached a figure of $6.4 to $ 8.28billion in the below calculation pointing out that I used $40 per barrel profits for both Tunisia and Romania. These are low given current crude price allows for negative fluctuation. (See below calculation previously posted)
A slight increase in those recovery rates by say $5-10 would no doubt arrive at $10 billion.
In relation to Gas I offered no calculations for the Gas we produce however from the latest slide I have extracted this:
Moftinu - 1008 Well cost $3m At current output returns 4.0 MMscf/d @ $6 $24,000 per day $1m every 40 days $3m every 120 days $9m over the 360 days (minus any drop off)
This was a calculation to show the recoverable, I used 25-35% of sabria and only 75MMBoe of Satu Mare not the full asset reserves
This in relation to the asset in Tunisia Sabria Asset is said to have 358 MMBoe (independently verified) The resource has had extremely low development with only “1.2% produced” The reason for this low rates was a variety of reasons - simple reasons - Pumps to increase revenue had not been installed.
Any way the interesting part out of that 358 MMBoe they believe 25-35% recovery factor of which only 1.2% has been recovered.
So ladies and gentlemen I get to the interesting part.
Satu Mare - we use the 75MMBoe mean risked (not the 358MMboe - don’t want to get to greedy)
Sabria - we use A) 25-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 85.2MMboe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 160.2 MMBoe
Sabria - We use B) 35-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 122 MMBoe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 196MMBoe
Recoverable average totalling
160.2MMboe and 196MMboe
Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion
Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.
Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion
X0.72 USD / GBP
£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion
As previously pointed out costs In ROMANIA it’s $9. Tunisia is $19
P14 of the March 2021 presentation, Romanian indicative Netbacks.
Using a most likely $6/mcf market price, the after tax netback to SENX is $3.17, which, at a conventional 6:1 gas:oil energy conversion basis, is equivalent to around $18/boe. That's after ALL costs and taxes, which your calculation doesn't include.
Then, on p20, Tunisia indicative Netbacks. The presentation highlights a spot price of $50/bl but let's be more generous and use $60/bl. That results in an AFTER TAX netback potential of $19/bl to SENX.
I believe these are the figures you should use along with the volumetrics you apply, rather than $40 for Sabria, for example.
Charlie, I'm afraid you're way out with your back of the fag packet calcs. Please refer to SENX's last presentation where they specifically mention netbacks for both oil and gas, and importantly, indicate after tax netbacks. From memory, these work out at something like $10/bl for oil and a much lower figure for the Romanian gas.
Sorry if my post come across ar5y the other day that wasn’t the intention, you actually done me a favour revisiting that interview and why I added substantially more Friday. My Dad is also an ex Project Manager for ConocoPhillips (retired now) just send him everything to have a look at as he is really, really clued up having worked in O&G all over the world. Seems interested after our phone call but will ultimately run through everything and feed back to me. Will update when he does but I cannt see any fault in my figures or the presentation, the fact there is no debt I’m expecting this to really go places. Especially given 44.61% are held by major shareholders. Any volume is going to really drive this up.
I would have expect volume to stat picking up as accounts should be ready for 30 April which is 2 weeks today.
Given we know by the company’s website that 44.61% are held by sticky hands. That leaves 55.39% on the market or approx 632m shares.
If we said 10-20% of that are currently held by PIs (don’t think that’s unreasonable) which is 63.2-126.4m leaving approx 505.5m shares, once daily volume picks up the SP should motor quickly imo
For volume the company’s profile needs to pick up.
I mentioned earlier: volume, chat and social media suggest this isn’t on a great deal of radars. (YET)
At £50mMC it will become a target for ii, once accounts show profits, monthly revenue and debt free this will be very attractive to ii with SENX reserves of both Oil & Gas.
Predicting a rally in SP is difficult to predict prior to news due to above points. However, once the market sees the RNS and the herd start taking positions the problem will be getting in at the current prices and will see a lot of NT to buy and why I’m loading up now.
Certainly over the next few trading days as there is only potentially 10 left till news drops more sat on the side lines should be making a move and SP should climb.
According to LSE volume is 6m shares this is only 1.2% of 505.5m available volumes if at the 20% of above figures if 10% - 0.6% .