London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
You will only have one login account. Registering with multiple accounts is not allowed. Any user found to have more than one account on this site will have all, and any future accounts suspended permanently.
Your email and password must only be used by you. If a post is made under your account, it will be considered that it was posted by yourself.
Your account nickname must not be the same, or contain, listed company names or board members' names.
While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy.
You will not;
discuss illegal or criminal activities.
post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge.
post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities.
post any private communication, or part thereof, from any other person, including from a member of the board of directors of a listed company. Such posts cannot be verified as true and could be deemed to be misleading.
post any personal details (e.g. email address or phone number).
post live price or level 2 updates.
publish content that is not your original work, or infringes the copyright or other rights of any third party.
post non-constructive, meaningless, one word (or short) non-sense posts.
post links to, or otherwise publish any content containing any form of advertising, promotion for goods and services, spam, or other unsolicited communication.
post any affiliate or referral links, or post anything asking for a referral.
post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the board or the board's topic.
re-post premium share chat posts on regular share chat.
restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards.
impersonate any person or entity, including any of our employees or representatives.
post or transmit any content that contains software viruses, files or code designed to interrupt, destroy or limit the functionality of this website or any computer software or equipment.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium and Verified Members
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Paul - on paper this is exactly what should have happened over last few days. There is absolute consensus on here that of the $900m RFQ pipeline anyway between 40-70% will likely drop SEEs way - more likely the higher end of that range. Not only that but PMG confirmed that that was an annual pipeline not just for this year. So current years sales were just shy of $50m and now we have confirmation that number will move up ( remember this is just Auto only) to say conservatively $500m pa ( assuming multiple years RFQ wins start getting booked at 20% pa over 5 years) WHY HASNT THE MARKET RECOGNISED THIS AND RE-RATED US THEN? Part of the reason methinks is that whilst we’ve alluded to the exciting pipeline we haven’t formally confirmed this by way of updated FY22 forecast - I’m sounding like a broken record I know but SEE need to get their finger out and commit to a forecast they know they can deliver. The numbers are by and large already known ( barring fleet) as this years auto royalties are what was won 1 and 2 years ago plus upfront costs perhaps we will get this year- I think that’s the positive step change the market is waiting for. SEE over to you!!
Of course there isn't. However, you've been on this board long enough to have heard that other than one noticeable result, it had not lost a contested bid. That is not to say it can't but with the number of aces it's holding there is a high possibility it will win a significant majority of the RFQs.
Yes fair points Red, though i was trying stress that pipeline means potential sales not guaranteed minimum revenue. If it did, the SP would have gone nuts. Once potential becomes reality the market have to seriously rerate the market cap.
The big question with SEE used to if, but now it’s when.
I'm not sure about that for a few reasons. Note that the RNS stated that the RFQs were for Europe, the US and Japan, no mention of China (leave that to Qualcomm etc), other than a few wins where the final destination of the vehicles looks like China, there appears only to be the odd win for very basic DMS pre ENCAP /GSR. The OEM DMS requirements seem to be going quickly to Level 2 and quite honestly if OEMs want a safety DMS it has no option, SEYE etc struggle with availability and forward camera linkage. SEE has a very good record of winning the RFQs it enters. Finally, I think Paul has nailed his colours to the mast and expects to get pretty damn close to A$900 although the odd small Lancia type contract may somehow elude SEE.
Saying that, even 70% would be some achievement against competition as strong as that from the undoubted world leader in DMS!
Just for clarity, the A$900m pipeline is potential revenue, so it’s the maximum we could win in the current client discussions. 100% sales conversion is extremely unlikely, but the fact that SEE put this figure in an RSN is incredible & a sign of huge confidence that they think they could win a significant proportion of this. My guess is around 70%.
IMO This RSN is the start of big inflection point for the company.
I think we are about to come out from the shadows.
I know – I've written about this subject before, but in light of recent information...
At the back-end of last year (Oct 2020) Junko Yoshida, then of the EE Times, carried out an interview with Ross Jatou of On Semiconductor (link below). Mr Jatou is Senior Vice President of On Semi's Intelligent Sensing Group, leading their automotive sensing division. If you watch the video, just after 24 minutes Mr. Jatou, when talking about the DMS market, says: “...if you look at some of the market reports, you will see that Seeing Machines has nearly half that market...”
If memory serves, this was at a time when Seeing Machines' official line was still advising we could possibly capture 30% of the market. But here's Ross Jatou, a senior manager of a company who works – not only with Seeing Machines - but, to quote the man himself: 'almost all of the leading folks' (companies in the same space), telling Junko that, as of late last year, Seeing Machines ALREADY HAD around 50% of DMS work in the bag!
What I'm getting at here is: if we take the information from the above interview (and, remember, Ross Jatou knows exactly who's doing what) then factor in yesterday's surprise potential revenue number of A$900m, we get a fairly good idea that Mr Jatou was spot on, and that Seeing Machines was/is underplaying its hand. So that figure of A$900m will be a base-line. Because, as was stated a few times yesterday, who's going to issue a number like that and then risk failing to achieve it?
P.S. Anyone new out there? That A$900m is JUST revenue from our auto division!
Absolutely fantastic confirmation yesterday that the likely pipeline will be AT LEAST A$500m assuming a more conservative 50% share. What was even more revealing was that we got confirmation that expectation is again in 2022 that the pipeline will be filled by a similar amount. This now provides a further anchor point for what PMG has previously said in respect of Auto sales doubling annually from 2022 onwards. With the previous pipeline at c A$ 2-250m ( ie $50m accounted for sales over a 5 year lifetime ) together with the other strands of revenue growth from Fleet and Aviation, the Company should at this stage have a pretty solid estimate now for FY2022. On my rudimentary calculations and not particularly rocket science, we should be close to a guaranteed A$100m level of sales for the new year. This is what I’d like to get now from PMG in his interviews and RNSs as this is the bridge for me that should catapult us to a multiple of today’s 9p! Come on SEE - pick a number you know you can hit and is already in the bag and go for it !!!