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Has anyone had direct comms with the buisness to understand whether there will be an update?
Old, totally agree about the confidence / arrogance, which I am also fine with once his actions match the words.
The 6 months to Dec 31st is all his, its his first update to the market as the CEO, he will be very keen to make it a great Trading Update imo.
I expect a Trading Update, as will the market, all we know so far is he is slower than the previous bloke who got last years out a 16th Jan.
#TeamPaulMcSlowerThanTheOtherBloke
PM is someone used to getting what he wants, you can tell that from the body language in the proactive videos, the other directors lean away. This is no bad trait for a leader, but it also lends itself to only sharing news when it suits his agenda. His agenda will be completely focussed around delivering 6.1p by (was it June?) He does not give a toss about what has gone before so the Trading update in Jan / Feb is unlikely to go ahead, so we wait until the Half year in March is my guess. The McImminent jibes will have stung his ego as well as that will have been passed on, so he will be wanting a stonking report for the HY results. The pain goes on ....
CFB
ok, I see what you mean, we need to know and I think we all agree on that.
No NDA excuse there.
Throw another shrimp on the barbie Sheila and give us a beer. No rush.
CFB
Sure it from one measurement will affect pure profit but also will the 21% cost savings recently negotiated on hardware costs. Admittedly, these will not kick until, I expect, in any great numbers until after after HY1.
Philtronic: I don't disagree that distributors are the way to go. What I am saying is that they may have met their goals for the number of installations but the profits have dropped. This may explain why SEE are being coy about their figures to the market.
Recurring revenue is where its at, a subscription based business is what everyone wants and getting 5 year subscriptions is what we want by any means possible, if we didnt have distributors we would need more staff who need paid every week not on per unit sold. This has happened because it wasnt working before and hopefully we can be reassured that this business model is working very soon in the form of figures on paper via rns.
They may be increasing the number installed but:
"...Seeing Machines is currently channelling 70% of Guardian sales through a growing network of distributors..."
If the number they are selling through distributors in increasing then the profit margin will be decreasing as the distributor will be taking their cut.
ET, lets keep it factual
1) they refer us back to their last reported installation number ie 16,000 at June 19, they gave never suggested thats's the current number
2) Aviation, its clearly taking longer than Mc thought it would, it's a big deal(s) so they need to get it right, it's not in this years forecast anyway so wont harm the SP. My view is it will still happen, if you have evidence otherwise please share?
You are quickly undoing the progress you made as a researcher and starting to look a bit green. Read your own posts from a few months back and follow your own advice
#Team300
ET
As of 06/11/2019, th Aviation deals were still very much on. No indications to the contrary (other than we continue to wait for it/them) and as Pat Nolan said he would have preferred Paul McPremature to have cleared it with him before he mentioned it /they were imminent in July.
However, until the first RNS is issued, you're right,there is no deal, yet.
We know fleet is fixed. Installations were leaked on the Guardian Latin America site. The frustrating thing is that they want the market to believe fleet is still broken. The evidence is that they keep mentioning the 16k number and they quickly changed 20k+ fleet installation number on their Latin America site to 20,000 vehicles in mining and commercial fleet vehicles. Maybe SEE want to surprise its shareholders or they want their buddies to keep collecting cheap shares. I don't know. Regarding the aviation deal I don't think there will be any. Maybe it was 'imminent' in July but something must have happened. Maybe the licensing deal is broken...
BB, any license deal is all upside as Cenkos are very clear license deals are not in the forecast.
I'm as keen as anyone for the license deals to land however if McFixer can beat the H1 expectations and upgrade full year pre any license deal that tells the market, his focus on "controlling costs, profitable work, driving Fleet, fixing fleet" includes actions that impact the financial performance not just empty words, and sends a more positive message than a license deal that was undoubtedly started by the old leadership team.
Can he deliver ?
#TeamMcfixer
Market would be extremely happy with $15mill+ for the 6 months to Dec & if achieved (which I consider unlikely) the update (if published) should include the magic expression -'full year results are expected to exceed expectation.That said 1 or 2 licensing deals with decent upfront licensing fees could also help us towards exceeding expectation.
Buffet, I posted a series of facts from SEE RNS and or financial reports.
I have also done my own financial analysis based on an installed base of 20k+ and I get approx A$15m for the 6 months, market should be happy with A$10m
#Team300
Perhaps I've not woken up yet, but are you suggesting that you're confident that the growth rate has accelerated sufficiently and that the measures that have been put in place to address the cash issues will be evidenced in this imminent update to tell the market once and for all we are on track and are not carrying problems?
For me the installation number is interesting and is undoubtedly an enabler, but the important number is the revenue from Fleet for 6 months to Dec 31st.
A few facts
1) full year forecast is A$20m , so a simple 50% (market shouldn't expect higher) is A$10m
2) H1 last year is the comparison point and that was A$4.2m, so A$10m would be more than double
3) Full Year to June 2019 was A$13.7m
4) therefore H2 2019 was A$9.5m
Then they fixed some more stuff
5) RNS extract May 19
"Commercial terms with direct clients and distribution partners have been reset to improve near-term cashflow and sustain ongoing monthly service fees for the longer term. These new trading terms include increased wholesale prices, hardware revenue payable on delivery and an introduction of contractually agreed timeframes for installation of Guardian hardware into vehicles, accelerating connections and recurring revenue from the 24/7 Guardian Monitoring Centre services."
6) Then Paul McFixer flexed his muscles and fixed some more
Nov 19 RNS extract
"The Guardian unit hardware cost has been reduced by 21%. This reduction is expected to deliver savings of approximately A$8.4 million on its upcoming negotiated volume order which is to be delivered in batches to Seeing Machines and its channel partners over the next calendar year, to meet expected global demand. Seeing Machines is currently channelling 70% of Guardian sales through a growing network of distributors."
So is A$10m fixed ?, not in my book it's only A$0.5m more than the previous 6 months. A$15M+ to claim it's fixed is my target
#TeamMcFixer