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NCAP first then parliament?
When SEE diluted some months ago I believe there is no way they could have raised that level of funding if FY results 3 months down the line would prove to be nothing less than positive. It would be absolutely intolerable for placing participants to have coughed up and then see their investment wiped away with a poor set of FY figures. They raised that money as they foresaw good results and decent newsflow. I believe the management have a timeline of events. This timeline's been communicated to major investors and on that basis they raised the necessary funding....
The EURO NCAP vote in the EU Parliament can't come soon enuff and formal mandatory approval is given affording DMS legal status
This is what SM said on 16th May 2019;
"Commercial terms with direct clients and distribution partners have been reset to improve near-term cashflow and sustain ongoing monthly service fees for the longer term. These new trading terms include increased wholesale prices, hardware revenue payable on delivery and an introduction of contractually agreed timeframes for installation of Guardian hardware into vehicles, accelerating connections and recurring revenue from the 24/7 Guardian Monitoring Centre services."
So we just need that statement to be translated into revised assumptions for the FY20 forecast
#Team300
Bud,
Current Forecast from Cenkos for FY20 is:
All A$m
Fleet 11.3
Auto 16.5
Off Road 5.5
Aviation 4.4
Rail 7.3
BDMS 5.0
Other 1.5
Total 51.6m
In terms of how they get their Fleet number, its just wrong IMO and an over reaction to the issues last year, this is what they said last Sept (when they forecasted A$12.8m, obviously now reduced further to A$11.3m)
Cenkos 18/09/18
Fleet Assumptions
- Hardware revenues beyond current Gen2 order assumed to be at 10% royalty
- Monitoring revenues shared A$30 per connection per month to Seeing Machines
#Team300
I presume Cenkos missed out SaaS revenue from they fleet calculation, otherwise how would they get to $50m rev for the year..? I doubt there’s $39m coming from the other sectors. The company have never given guidance on FY20 figures so they know they have to next week... I’m very confident their guidance will see a large % increase from FY19 and that it will give them enough wiggle room to also exceed these figures by year end...
isb, the name (when chosen in 2014) was meant to be a play on 2020 Vision as well as predicting the year this comes good, 2022 or any other year just doesn't work for many reasons.
#Team300
Hi Seeing2020 - I still remember that line, but unfortunately the business doesn't always do what it says it's going to - i.e. rail contract, imminent aviation news, auto contracts due by June (yes I know that is not in their control but it's still another example of positive news that comes to nothing, which is not liked by the market). They also use the word "expects" in that sentence and not "will" - so likely to happen but not definitely. I so hope you are right on all your predictions fleet and auto but I'm beginning to think we are stuck here at 4p for many more months yet unless the whole breakeven/further fund raise issue is sorted or they do actually deliver something they have talked about i.e. contracts! Think you might need to change your name to Seeing2022 :)
So impressed by the all round quality of debate on the board. Thanks to you all.
Completely agree with what Seeing2020 wrote this morning. Fleet is fixed and SEE need to communicate that in spades, with an upgrade along the lines suggest by S2020. Sanjay Jha while making some very accurate assessments of previous management did throw the baby out with the bathwater in saying dump fleet.
The irony is fund managers are watching this but have been staying on the sidelines as not sure fleet is fixed and SEE isn't still an R&D project. Once SEE address these fears clearly and honestly I believe the share price will rise significantly.
If anyone (including Canberra) are wondering why we expect a revised forecast next week for the current year, they told us in the 20th March RNS
"The Group therefore expects to provide guidance on FY20 forecasts at its 2019 full year results."
#Team300
B, I don't think people on here believe Fleet should be ditched, however anyone just reading the report from the house broker could easily draw that conclusion.
Next weeks guidance for FY20 as part of the finals will hopefully make it very clear fleet is a lucrative and growing business.
The problem atm is the only available forecast for FY20 is the Cenkos report which shows revenue from fleet at A$11.3m and an installed base of 27,000.
However, the company have already told us the recurring revenue based on 16,000 (FY19 end point) is higher than A$11.3m , so the forecast makes no sense.
"Revenue for SaaS (software as a service), the monthly monitoring fee from the Company's fleet solution, Guardian, increased by over 89% to A$5.7 million during the period and, coupled with contracted recurring royalty payments in mining, represents annualised recurring revenue of more than A$12 million as at 30 June 2019"
I remain confident that my forecast of 35,000+ installed and revenue of A$45m will prove to be closer to the truth.
Overall revenue for FY20 is forecast at circa A$50m by Cenkos, if Paul plays this well he should
- upgrade FY20 by circa 25% next week, range of $60-70m would be my suggestion, that would be based on the true revenue for 27,000 installed base
- further upgrades throughout the year as the fleet revenue and installed base come more de-risked , ie as we win more contracts
Fleet is well and truly fixed but the markets don't know yet as they haven't been told
#Team300
-
For everyone that thinks fleet should be ditched here’s some (old) news but something I came across of how lucrative it is /can be.
https://www.csdistribution.com.au
If you have a look at the brochure that’s available on the website above there’s a quote from
The ceo of QUBE logistics and then if you look at the brochure of QUBE logistics below you can see how big this company is with how many vehicles they have in their fleet and getting recognition from these guys wouldnot have been easy.
https://qube.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Capability-Statement_LOGISTICS2.pdf