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Speaking of patience, where is Sebs? Are you still around? ATB.
I cannot imagine that following a diluted placing they would release a poor trading statement. I would HOPE they will provide an upbeat statement with new contracts to really bolster confidence. Let's see what happens
Cheers! Patience is a virtue! Been building a position in See gradually for years! Was so impressed by the mining application, but in all honesty never imagined it to become as integrated as this across multiple verticals!!
Buff
I think all bets are on hold until we get some kind of steer as regards both Fleet outlook and the probable licencing deal. Of course, from an Auto point of view, NREs will have a short term impact.
Yeah, and my calcs were super rough!!
Be intersting to (if anyone has the time) to work out what we believe we need to get to break even and what the first year of revenue looks like beyond that point. Probably all the in the analysts report, which haven't got access to!
Buff
Not far off what Cenkos said a few months ago on a sale basis I think!
I make that with extremely rough maths around 40p without considering the other verticals!
Top posts fellas . . Thanks
And that equates to revenues of? And then there's the other verticals
Whatif18 Fleet certainly seems to be gathering pace which is great news
And that equates to revenues of? And then there's the other verticals
Whatif18 Fleet certainly seems to be gathering pace which is great news
2020 - Your valuation includes DMS in cars but do we not need to add the number of units to be added in trucks from new, rather than the current retro fits and do i remember that the timescale on trucks was shorter than cars ?
Are trucks not likely to double the potential and have a higher value as DMS can generate a financial payback through lower insurance premiums , less accidents and monitoring costs ?
Thanks S2020. The importance of a detailed and positive Fleet report cannot be over emphasised. It will really be the decider on the size of Lewbo's Boat.
JC, fleet is fixed imo.
Distributors do the installing and I think we will be told in the trading update that we hit FY19 targets and FY20 are upgraded.
I have posted my numbers previously for FY20 and I assume
- zero revenue from insurance partner(s)
- ditto Mix
- ditto Geotab
- ditto Lytx or other North America based telematics
So new fleet model works and is cashflow positive imo
So you would not subscribe to the argument that the telematics contracts could actually put a drag or be cost neutral on Fleet revenues by being front loaded?. I'm interpreting from your answer that you view the Telematics Surge as being cashflow positive especially now as Fatigue monitoring technology has more leverage with regulation turning the ugly ducking to the Swan or at least a nice looking Goose in the Telematics world.
Turning into another Super Saturday with some of these posts Redindi how long did that take to draft, yet it's wonderful and concise. Brilliant.
JC, depends who does the monitoring imo.
Options
1) pure CAT deal, 10-15% royalty on hardware no monitoring fees, large upfront cash payment
2) Monitoring / Telematics - Telematic manufacture, sell, install etc . No upfront cash, SM get monitoring revenue, perhaps $20-30 pcm, per unit, dropping to maybe $10 for really high volumes.
3) Aviation, FFS SM tech is $125k per unit currently. L3 and or CAE license SM tech, substantial (8 figures) upfront cash payment and then 10-15% royalty, very similar to CAT deal imo, no monitoring revenue .
Option 3 is the one I expect now, telematics is a longer game
Thanks Redindi..great summary.
With what looks like a grand lurch into the Telematics market has any one got a view on the costs/ revenue ratio/structure of getting Guardian into these boxes? Will SEE be paid to put tech in or the other way round?
Red, top post.
One of the best I have read on here in all the years
S2020
I'd agree and for later, which we already might have an indicator whether it's software or chip, the F in FCA and Ford Europe, if it has any new models from May 2022 must have the chip in mind, not surprising as the C in FCA opted for the chip as did Ford USA.
There's evidence of what's going to happen by looking at what's already happened.
The last contract in Europe was SEYEs two model contract extension with BMW for two models in 2019 & 2021.
SEE has taken over from SEYE at BMW, beat them to Mercedes and appears to be displacing SEYE at Audi /VW. SEE also looks like it will win Volvo.
SmartEye won JLR early on, these are early (convenience) models and Tata (owners of JLR) appears to be working with Visteon whose offering looks like SEE tech.
That leaves, amongst the big boys Renault (Europe), Peugeot and xxx???? in Europe which considering the clock keeps ticking and the associated time scales points to the chip being the choice of solution.
So, come 2022, it looks like Europe is sewn up.
Then to Japan. There's talk of Jungo and I think Eyesight (and others) having won in Japan as well as SEYE winning Mitsubishi but these either appear for elsewhere other than Japan or early convenience DMS.
As the Big 3 sell globally they will want a solution that meets legislation globally and locally. There is a caveat to this - where it also sells into a mass market with less stringent legislation, has a production facility in the legislation lite area and makes economic sense.
Other than that, it will have no option to go for the safety solution which is available on a chip, which from decision time to on market time is roughly half that of the software only route. So, it looks like where safety is included, Japan will go for SEE tech. This includes Nissan whose Pro Pilot 2.0 may be adequate pre 05/22 but is not up to scratch after that date.
The USA has been all SEE, mainly chip, and appears to be sewn up.
Then there is China. There have been a number of contract wins announced in the last year which give a strong indicator it's convenience and had been planned for some time prior to the announcements, all bar Byton that is who have global markets in mind from day 1.
Geely sells virtually all its products in China, Hyundai 14 models are also destined for China as are the the two Renault /Mitsubishi models. It appears SEYE saw this coming some time ago as, other than JLR which may also follow, it recognised it would not be able to bridge the gap from convenience to safety prior to when the decisions were to be made.
Globally, it looks like KK could be right, there will be at least four providers of 'DMS' from which OEM's can choose. The only problem is there is at present only one safety DMS provider but 3+ convenience DMS to choose from and I suppose it's possible Renault, for example, will have both SEE and SEYE tech in cars for models produced post May 2022. As for the percentages, that's another question!
Happen*
Seeing then you forgot to add in rail, aviation etc. Will need a bigger cigar packet now. All of this adds value to the takeover price. If automotive is so lucrative imagine in 5 years time of how lucrative the whole package for the big fish would be. Mobileye situation about to happy imo just a matter of when (I hope)
Thanks. I think I need more coffee to wake up and smell the potential!! Sit tight then!! Got a little trigger happy with an av of just over 5, so slightly under water, but could be worse!!
Seeing - yes fully agree and as for their website ...we should charge them a royalty for that too!