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I must admit, as a brand I think it’s out of touch with its styling, I wouldn’t wear it and I’m 40. I’m not sure how the female market is responding to the new lines?
I’m invested in the fundamentals and JD here. But, fashion is a brutal industry and if you become “out of fashion” it is very very hard to turn that around as what 20 something wants to be dressed out of fashion!?
But they’re not in financial trouble, so they won’t go bust over corona and the SP still has headroom based on pre Covid levels which had already priced in their struggles. So we’ll see. But it is a punt stock for sure.
Sadly, I do follow Jade on insta. ;-). More to look at the cars and watches...
An accelerating shift in online is definitely positive, but vague. Numbers? The language used is always canted to sound like things are going well. Its like estate agent speak. Look at all the "encourage by" references to China and US business made along the way.
SDRY business online has always been weak in comparison to the size of the business. Like I said before, that it is better than it was is hardly the point for celebration yet. Compared to other brands, the penetration is low. Reasons could be poor execution...I'll go along with that (and same for stores in my opinion), its never been the best at online, again there are historical reasons for that surrounding talent. It could be lack of womenswear in the overall mix (yes, its gone up as a ratio to mens, but is that the same as saying the womenswear product is flying?). A small increase in online sales, propelled by large increase (in ratio) in womenswear might point to a drop off in mens sales online... Will the womenswear store sales show similar levels? Or, as I feel, the physical store sales will still be men in the main, with womenswear somewhat lagging behind, which, in turn, points to the earlier point about dads not buying clothes online at the same rate as other groups (teens and women to take a simple line). Anyway, mountains of data supports the way people shop online, its not guesswork.
You are obviously not reading the official reports they release in the RNS’s. One such extract states . I am pleased with the accelerating shift in sales to online, and we've seen a particularly good performance from our women's ranges which, for the first time ever, are accounting for around half our sales. This share is played which is clear to see but I’m surprised the shorts tracker hasn’t updated.
I also visited superdry store yesterday and there were few people in. Yes, inventory I believe they keep bit more and should mange efficiently to reduce costs. I disagree to point that their typical customers won't be looking to buy online. Superdry clothing quality, style, their fast shipping and customer service is normally very good. If you see their reviews online or any store it is consistently much above 4 out of 5. It is weird that with decent turnover and great feedback, they are valued low. Mostly due to them not making profit in last few quarters whereas they were making profit few quarters back. If they manage their inventory well and scale up online sales, this share can do very well. Their balance sheet seems good and healthy.
I agree with everything you say. The high street is chaos, I follow Superdry on Instagram and they are pushing woman's clothing but I’m a not so young male so I don’t know how well the clothing push is being received.
It all points to what the male analyst said; clarity.
If Superdry make a press release tomorrow that the market likes. The shares might jump 20% but will still be cheap.
I wouldn’t be afraid to buy just because they’d already moved I’d still take the leap so I can see where the analyst was coming from by saying wait.
If you follow Jade HollandCooper on Instagram you get an idea of where JD is.
Hard work but one rns and it’s game on, or off, what ever the case may be.
As for small market cap it’s like having a fast car and a regular one, both will get you there but one a bit quicker (that’s all)
I don't have a lot of hope left here. I've visited about a dozen SDRY stores since the reopening. Whilst I saw queues at some retailers, Zara for example, I saw no such activity at SDRY. Even today, my local SDRY was deserted. It's anecdotal, of course, but there you go. The stores looked way too full of stock, a JD trait when he's allowed to run free. Social distancing is out the window as the shop floor is like a maze. Standards looked good, though, although I suspect that it's more to lack of being shopped than any other reason. The sales were pretty rotten before lockdown, I see no evidence that that will have changed. An uptick in online from a low base, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, unhelpfully, the typical SDRY customer is not the prime user of online clothes buying. SDRY has, arguably, become a "dad brand', and males of certain age aren't the best online customers of an offering such as SDRY. If they appealed to teenagers it would be a different story, and the same goes for women, who really aren't a big part of SDRY's business.
That it would take time, that there would be bumps is a given. China was a failure, spin it any way you like, but having to withdraw shows a failed strategy, despite the self congratulatory claims made by then CEO, Sutherland. SDRY retook control of their brand in USA some years ago with a price just shy of 30million. So what has happened there? How much profit are they making? I'd call it a fail. Who was running the US for them? Anyone with relevant experience? Judging by some locations they went into, I'd say not. Who is running retail now that Tesco's bakery guy has gone? Someone from Wilko. International experience? I think not. How has the product offering changed? Not enough, barely at all in my eyes. Why would you go to SDRY now? Nothings changed. Nothing I have seen suggests there's going to be any major shift in their approach, so why are the sales suddenly going to increase? I can't see where good news can come from. Thats probably why the price is low. I sense there is a feeling that the brand has had its day. Holder selling, Standard life selling. Holder is legally distinct from SDRY, but to say he has nothing to do with them is a stretch.
I wanted Sutherland out. He did well for himself, but not for SDRY. I don't suppose he cares. I wanted JD to take control. But I wanted JD to bring in talent, at almost any cost, to fix this. I think everybody knows that the new Chairman wanted new talent too, but he couldn't convince JD. Don't forget JD brought in Sutherland, as JD is not a CEO type. He likes his area, but not much else. The Nike football guy has been at SDRY for long enough to show what he's bringing to the table. What is it? Tell me what product is his? Where's the direction, or is it just all the exact same as before? Looks to me like it's still "Superdry" splashed everywhere it can be.
I just can't see what the new story is that will take this brand forward.
When you look at the balance sheet versus the market cap, it’s crazy! It’s like bankruptcy has been priced in!
This is it, it looks like they’re withholding info. I don’t think retails sales for q2 are going to be great to be honest. I think at this price, as long as the company survives, we can’t really lose. But how bumpy the journey will be, who knows?
There’s a report written by a female analyst in February, she more or less endorses what Julian Dunkerton said around the same time, that the turnaround would take two years but added the path would be bumpy.
I personally believe the market doesn’t like the 5—8 weeks delay for the year end results slipped in at the last market update in May. Superdry said the companies auditors needed more time. To me all the auditors up and down the country were working from home and well able to cope with any workload. I think they are using the 5—8 weeks in the hope that the Covid19 situation would have been in the wake and with by then having the retail units all open that they could have talked about recent reassuring sales. It doesn’t bear to think of what the reality could be. I believe that Spain, Italy and France are starved of tourists and so the shops those tourists normally visit will be doing less business than normal.
Another analyst covering Superdry said that he agreed in Julian Dunkerton’s turnaround plan but that he wouldn’t buy into the stock until there was further clarity on the current position. I think the market wants clarity too.