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Ray, I agree!!
Thanks for the clarification Bermuda.
The wording makes it misleading IMO.
Ray,
Ray - the term ' a person closely associated with Martin Diggle' - the word 'person' simply refers to a legal entity, in this case the Vulpes Life Sciences Fund so it isn't a real person.
Ruck - my understanding is that transactions by funds (or even retail investors) only have to be disclosed when they cross a 3% threshold and thereafter every 1%. As Konar has mentioned, all director dealings must be notified no matter what the size. So for the purposes of disclosure, all Vulpes dealings must be notified as director dealings whether they cross any thresholds or not (because Martin Diggle is co-founder and portfolio manager at Vulpes).
Morning,
Just to add an important part of last RNS’s were part of a “ single transaction” but that may be made up of a series of smaller trades as part of an overall “ transaction” .
Therefore it depends if all the “ single transaction “ has been completed when you will get another TR1 assuming a reportable threshold has been passed.
Hope that helps.
Konar,
I have done some more digging. On AIM it seems that once you have reached the notifiable threshold, ALL further dealings have to be reported irrespective of size and whether or not it crosses a threshold.
I’m not an expert on this topic (unlike Maths lol!) so happy to be corrected.
So this may be "a person closely associated with Martin Diggle" who has invested in Vulpes, as it was last time.
If this is the case, then we should get an RNS tomorrow.
He's a director. Any dealings need to be reported do they not?
Vulpes still have their original 17% so no threshold has been reached or breeched that would require an RNS.
If I am right , I guess so. It's pretty much guesswork other than the numbers seem to add up. It could be just a coincidence. I have no idea what to read into it if anything at all.
Evening Dalestar, just reffering to your 01.39 post, would"nt that mean we are expecting a Holdings RNS??
Diggle added 2,925,000 shares on December 17th , then disposed of 1,500,000 on April 28th . Yesterday there were 700,000 of round figure (100,000 +) sales and today 725,000. I reckon he has sold all the extra shares he bought on 17th December .
Talking about Martin Diggle - not sure whether this has been posted before but here is an interview with GQ South Africa
https://www.gq.co.za/wealth/investing-in-the-future-of-medicine-martin-diggle-46719397
miavoce,
Yes, agree. Important that Scancell are able to get a decent sized funding away and that they have enough to do justice to the pipeline. I'm not expecting any huge reduction in cash burn due to COVID - after all the last Trinity update was in May and they should have been aware of any reductions in staff costs due to furloughing etc. The biggest saving is likely to be on SCIB1 trial which must be on hold at the moment but other big items such as patent costs are likely to be unaffected.
Just a quick comment re. the suggestion of forward selling from Vulpes. In view of the fact that Martin Diggle has a seat on the board of Scancell, it would be highly irregular for Vulpes to be forward selling into a placing so I think the sells are either coming from elsewhere or if they are from Vulpes, they surely can't then take part in any placing in the near future.
Miavoce,
I agree, it’s a shame we didn’t raise £10m when the placing price was 22p and it was oversubscribed.
I notice that Trinity Delta are forecasting a 10m fundraise (if funds don't come via another route) - I'd agree that we should go for this amount as it will give sufficient time for the first Modi-1 results to emerge which would hopefully drive an inflection in the SP.
Hi Chester18 (do you live in Chester btw ?) - I've assumed that the director wages are directly funding the COVID work and that other cash remains focused on the cancer work.
Thanks guys.
So taking into account the tax credit and the potentially reduced burn rate they probably have funding for a max. of 6 months which gives a bit of runway to sort out funding before a fundraise becomes necessary. If all other funding avenues fail we probably see a fundraise at the backend of September, but hopefully we will have funding for the COVID vaccine (assuming good pre-clinical data) and funding from one or more Avidimab deals to fund the cancer work by then.
As mentioned by Bermuda, covid19 may have meant furloughing of some/all staff so lower wage bill and also as mentioned the salary cuts of the BOD, so "potentially" a much reduce cash burn... IMO.
Plus the director wage cuts (25%).
May push the need back to September ish, fund raise in August.
Chester.
miavoce
I think they also had an R&D tax credit of £1.09m which came in December 2019 so that may give them a bit more breathing space but they certainly need funds sooner rather than later.
I have found that the Trinity Delta reports are quite useful when it comes to cash flow. They presumably are getting their information directly from the Company, so I guess it should be. They estimated that the cash position at the last Y/E (April 30th) was £3.5m and as you say, cash burn has been running at between £500 - £600k per month. Of course the big unknown is the impact of COVID-19, it's possible that cash burn has reduced due to lack of activity in the sector.
I've been looking back at timing of the previous fund raises to assess the level of cash SCLP had in the bank at the point they did each fundraise. For both of the last 2 fundraises (the 6million from the subscription/open offer and the subsequent 4m from Vulpes) I estimate that there would have been circa 1.7m left in the bank (i.e. sufficient for 3 months of operations) at the point each fundraise took place.
At 31/10 last year SCLP had 5.79m in the bank. Given that the monthly burn rate is about 520k there must now be about 1.6m left in the bank i.e. enough for 3 more months.
The need to raise funds is now therefore very pressing and needs to be dealt with. If SCLP doesn't announce a fundraise in the next couple of weeks I would take this to mean that they have an alternative funding source 'nailed-on'.
Evening All,
Paul 87 hope you post more as I have just read most of posts but apart from yours no one seems to have addressed what I certainly consider the most important aspect of today.
That is the SP closed down 8% which we can dress up however we like is not a sign as a good day at the office.
Hi C7. Don't post much in here nowadays - reading some of what has been going on again in here today you will understand why! I raised an eyebrow when I saw the sells in OXB and thought the same as you. I am fearful that some of the accumulative larger sells over the last few days here is also Mr Diggle selling down to accumulate even more cash to take part in a raising which of course would mean yet another dilution? Of course I hope I am wrong but the apparent inability to close any deals by the BOD only leaves one option open really.