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"... I take that as a positive, but am very aware it could be more of a slow burn. Fingers crossed"
Excellent points pistol7, however "...(even) more of a slow burn" ! I really hope not, it couldn't get any slower than Scancell already are!
These CLN’s fascinate me, and I’ll admit are the trigger that took my £200 ish investment some dozen years ago to a 7 figure holding last year.
The old adage of “follow the money” and it’s clear that RM know far more about the current workings of SCLP so I’ve followed them.
With apologies to those who know far more than me, but in essence CLN’s are instruments that give the holder capital rights ahead of equity in case of liquidation, may provide an income and offer an option to convert into equity (shares) at a pre-determined price and date.
RM were issued/invested in £5 million nominal zero interest, convertible into shares at 6.2 pence on 12 August 2022. In November 2020 approx £3.25 million were converted (the apparent reasoning to keep the RM equity holding to 29.97% given other events).
There was a further issue/investment of £17.9 million CLN’s with an annual coupon of 3%, convertible at 13pence on 10 November 2022.
All that is known and is in the public domain.
So RM hold CLN’s that cost them (I’m ignoring the profit they banked with the £3.25 million redemption) £19.65 M (£17.9M +£1.75M) providing them with an annual income of £537k (3% coupon on the £17.9m). I’ve known worse investments!
And they have the option to convert – a bit at 6.2 p and the majority at 13p.
These options expire in August and November 2022.
And, hey presto. Would you like to extend these options for a further 3 years at NIL cost? Makes me a bit worried that SCLP couldn’t extract better terms, or were they worried that RM might be pre-emptive? RM must have eyes on what is happening but they’ve said yes to keeping their chips on the table. I take that as a positive, but am very aware it could be more of a slow burn. Fingers crossed.
Chester,
No worries, it's just that I wonder whether the "Scancell Slippage" has as much to do with the extension as anything else.
Having said that it's pretty well irrelevant what the reason is apart from the fact that Scancell seemingly has more time.
Problem there is that as some have justified the cash we have as being sufficient up to 2022 the next question (which hopefully will already have been considered by BOD) is whence will come the future funding to keep us going until 2025. I imagine that's what gave the SP a jittery ride this afternoon.
I'm sure that Scancell will allay all those fears tomorrow morning! :-)
AIMO
Thanks for pointing out my mistake AB124
A badly written proposition. The point I was making is that at the time of the deal being agreed the decision didn't allow for the delays caused by the pandemic. Plus the concept of the Covidity Vaccine was just that 'a concept'. Redmile would seek the earliest practical date to protect their investment, now they know for sure that Scancell have some worthwhile technology platforms they are being sensible about the CLN Conversion date.
Hope that makes my point a little better.
Chester.
Chester,
As a matter of fact neither of the tranches of CLNs were agreed pre pandemic.
They were agreed in August and November 2020 well after the Pandemic struck.
Been out all day so only just had chance to digest the RNS and all the comments on the board.
For me nothing changes regarding the Covidity Trial or the MODI 1 Trial or even the SCIB1 / Keytruda Trial.
Todays announcement shows me that Redmile are backing Scancell right up to a Phase 3 deal with a major Pharma.
They all know that the original 2022 deadline for the CLN's is now to restrictive given that the end date was agreed pre-Pandemic.
This is excellent news for Investors like myself who want to see Phase 1 and Phase 2 cancer vaccine trial Data from Scancell before any major deals are struck. The SP fall is an over reaction to the negative from those concluding that it only means 'time delays'. Well it doesn't, it only points to Redmile being even more convinced that Scancells Technologies are the real deal.
Final results tomorrow, Covidity update 'Well Toleranced RNS' and MHRA Ethics Committee Approval both due any day.
Lets see what tomorrow brings.
Chester.
Surely RM is showing more confidence and trusting our products to wait for a few years more. To agree on the extension they must have seen the prospect of a much bigger prize for their massive funds injected into sclp .
The announcement today looks a precursor of positive news coming soon.
Well sp is down by Mr market but will probably be short lived once we have the news tomorrow…
I will continue to hold as I feel more confident too after today’s RNS and hopefully even better tomorrow!
Mr market is truly irrational and demands jam today….
GL
Violin understand the frustration. I know you didn't mean they were really driving the price down intentionally as we all know that would be illegal and insider trading. I suppose they are just playing by the book and as the deal was resigned today (probably) they are making the market aware without delay as per the rules. IMO
WTP, I really don't understand SCLPs thinking, why it wasn't announced with the results is beyond me... its almost as if they are driving the SP down intentionally.
Violin,
Please don't draw me to thinking about a cash raiser.... Otherwise why as you say wouldn't they leave the CLN amendment until the morning?
So we have a longer time to CLN maturity, a likely substantially increased cash burn, an horizon which has shifted from 2022 to 2025 and the last possible day to announce the Y/E results.
Put like that it looks terrible. I really want to be wrong. I do hope LD has a CEO aligned mentor given her relatively recent elevation to the top Financial Job.
I'm sure everything will really be OK long term, it's the short, short term that is the concern.
AIMO
It could have seen by the market as more delays and no imminent positive news the market was hoping for!? Hence sp is down..
Agree, slightly odd not it's part of tomorrow's update, or a double barrel RNS tomorrow at least. Why this afternoon?
Well, down 4% + on what I considered an excellent RNS.... wonder why this couldn't have waited and been released with the results tomorrow. So disappointing we are not making any progress with the share price considering all the positive progress on many fronts.
There was a time I looked forward to an RNS but after the last few we've ended down on the day...