Our latest episode of the Investing Matters Podcast, featuring Janet Mui, award-winning investment industry commentator, has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
'Tension' should read 'to mention'
I think that was the most hurtful thing for the doomie gloomies (read 'stirrers of instability to facilitate trading), that they were denied the annual placing conversations. Redmile's massive vote of confidence denied them the spikes and troughs of financial uncertainty, and of course while (correctly) one should never invest more than you can afford to lose, can Redmile (or Vulpes come to that) afford to blow tens of millions of clients money, not tension their own credibility? I suspect not, but other opinions would be interesting.
And for those who say a bulletin board has no effect on a share price, some here will remember that when someone posted a link saying a patent had been withdrawn, the sp dropped 10 or 15 percent in minutes. Fearmongering works for the lowlife, they just don't like to admit that's their aim.
I've never been described as 'Happy Clappy' but I suppose there is always a first time....
Could it also be that Redmile can be allocated a similar moniker 'Mad / Happy Clappy' investors..... they obviously had nothing better to do with the £40m.
I think that post will see you categorised in the 'mad ramper happy clappy minted not balanced unaware of risk' category by some of the intermittent stalwarts here.
Their is a simple way at looking at my posts which I always try to fall towards the positive where possilbe.
If I invest in a company the first think I ask myself is : 'what is the safety net in that business', in other words where is the solid ground that the company rests upon.
With Scancell its the partial success of SCIB1, a drug that worked, saved lives but hit a huge shift in sentiment towards 'Cancer Vaccines' just when the Ph2 / Ph3 trials needed the enthusiasm of Big Pharma to progress. The fact that it worked albeit in a small trial gives me confidence in Scancell's science. They do know what they are doing and have invested in high quality staff to ensure that all the platforms are stringently assessed as 'fit for purpose'.
Knowing that there is substance behind Scancells scientific goals allows me enough confidence to invest my hard earned monies and when I post on here I had better be positive in what I say or what's the point of my investment. Doesn't mean that I'm not frustrated at times, at just how long its taking to reach the positive data we all want to hear. All I know is that Science done properly takes as long as it takes and when the data does arrive 'good, bad or indifferent' it will have been applied with upmost care and attention to detail.
This current period of waiting is by far the most difficult because we know that the drugs are doing their thing right now inside patients as you read this post and if those trials show positive results our perspective on Scancell will completely change.
Is what I have just written a Ramp or is it Positive Enthusiasm ?
Good to see Rats admit that his original understanding was wrong and even though he caveated it by “ the impression of confidence” I am happy to point out that this was gained by attending every AGM/ Investor event over a 5 year period and talking to the BoD etc.something the average punter does not do.Plus no different to what I have and many others have done with SCLP events.
He makes a good point about no matter how confident you can be there is still risk and that is why like you I get surprised when balanced posts highlighting both the rewards and risks seem to attract such an unwelcome response from certain quarters.
I do think C11 makes a fair point about we should all be aware that we can lose all of our money on any AIM share not only bio and of course having experience of investing in a wider basket of AIM shares not only spreads the risk but gives you a much wider perspective than the biggest risk of all imo of investing all your money in one AIM share no matter how confident you may be.At least if you are prepared to lose it all then fine but I am aware of many tragic stories of people who have been ruined due to overextending themselves
In one share,especially if they don’t fully understand the risks.
It is a sign of a healthy board where people debate all sides of the argument and I can see AB that is what you want to promote.
Anyway nice weather to enjoy.
An example of the symptoms of Groupthink.
"....What are the symptoms of groupthink?
Individual members of the group self-censoring—especially if they fear being shunned or derided for speaking their mind—is one potential sign that the group may engage in groupthink. If those who do dissent are pressured to recant or conform to the majority view, it may similarly signal groupthink. Groups that actively deride “outsiders” may be more likely to fall prey."
Well, if some of the comments I've seen on this BB are "Banter" then I'd have to ask myself whether those "Banterers" should be allowed to continue posting on this BB.
Perhaps disrespect and consideration for others may be simply dismissed as Banter. I'm not sure I find that particularly inspiring or even honest, but it would certainly allow those who produce such posts to hide behind a form of "Groupthink".
Maybe that's what drives this Scancell BB,
AB. Maybe some see some comments as no more than banter rather than “suffocation” or “assassination”. However I wouldn’t know, as I’m not them.
No I'm not asking how you justify others/actions posts, the question I posed was rhetorical.
My main point was that if everyone accepted that Scancell is a high risk investment (which I frankly don't believe they do - perhaps more from ignorance of the sector than a reasoned INVESTMENT analysis than from an intentional disregard for the facts), then if they as a group continually criticise those more cautious posters here they are being disingenuous.
I say this because if they are aware of the risks why are they attempting to ridicule those voices who are only saying what you have stated ie,
"Personally, I believe anyone who invests any amount of money in an AIM biotech without full understanding that they might lose every penny, regardless of what anyone else might tell, or simply indicate to them, is a bit doltish."
In that situation surely the main posting here should be cautious with the more outrageously Bullish being challenged.
So to me the balance here is skewed towards the BULLISH investors who seem to want to suffocate any who try to point out the high risk of this investment which is what you agree from your own post is the case.
But for me the ultimate disconnect is that to post what you assume everyone realises is true (high risk) here is somehow wrong and must be stamped on at all costs.
But those who do the stamping are either Dolts (because the don't understand the risks) or -as an extrapolation- Disingenuous (because they don't want the risk arguments to surface).
Most BBs are partisan, but to attempt character assassination through such media is in my view beneath contempt.
AB, you’re asking me how I justify others actions / posts.
Not something I can, or want, to do.
Per clear note below. Personal perspective only on investment in an AIM Bio.
If that is the case then how do you justify the pilliorying of posters who make claims of Scancell not succeeding in the future? I talk of the frequent attempted ridiculing of "Doomies" etc.
However you look at it the Doomies have been right over the last ten years or so.
That gang mentality of Scancell's (almost) guaranteed success seems to be quite acceptable but many who are more cautious are not treated with any respect by the outnumbering gang.
Seems a bit one sided to me.
Personally, I believe anyone who invests any amount of money in an AIM biotech without full understanding that they might lose every penny, regardless of what anyone else might tell, or simply indicate to them, is a bit doltish. Has to be eyes wide open and full personal accountability in my view.
Please note, an entirely neutral & personal perspective, not aimed at any individual on the BB!
I understand what you mean Berm, but the impression that was left with some was that of confidence borne of a knowledge slightly greater than the average punter was privy to. The problem is that as soon as one implies that one has some personal or professional association with a director of the company and is confident of one's investment, then in my opinion there is a reasonable conclusion to be drawn. Opinions will always be divided on this, and it is starting to be a while ago now, but given that inanaco's predictions from far longer ago are recycled and thrown around by some of the remaining stalwart pessimists here, it seems quite reasonable to consider previous events where posters may (albeit naively) have left the wrong impression on a board as to why they believe a share is a good investment.
The perception of risk is a longstanding source of debate too - I agree that the point which MTFB had reached might have given cause to believe it was all wrapped up and secure, but is an illustration of how wrong one can be, and if scancell were to fail spectacularly and unexpectedly I'm sure there would be many a detailed post mortem held on who implied or appeared to imply what.
What qualifies as 'snide' and what qualifies as 'home truths' will depend very much on the standpoint of the commentator. Meanwhile I watch with patience and personal optimism, but remain aware of the mistakes made by others and hope to learn from those experiences, as presumably we all might.
C7 your question “And what would you call posters who boast about buying a new yacht 6 foot longer than the last Kashdog????”
My answer, …..fortunate, lucky, reasonably wealthy, successful in life…take your pick!
Logging off now so that I can get on with enjoying my weekend!…I will log back on at some point next week to see what the green eyed monster has come back with!… :-D :-D
I'm surprised by your 16.11 and I'd urge you to have another read to see exactly what your post seems to be suggesting .
Just to set the record straight, I was also in MTFB and also lost cash. At all times on the bb, Ivy was clear that he wasn't privy to any insider information and explained his connection with the CEO. The reason why Ivy and many others were so positive about the stock was simply that they had funded and run two phase 3 trials, both of which were successful and met their endpoints. In terms of clinical development, it was about as derisked as a pre-market bio can be. Can you imagine the sentiment on this bb if SCLP released 2 RNSs confirming positive Modi1 phase 3 results? So there was every reason to be positive on the bbs and that's not the same as ramping. It came as a complete shock when the FDA issued a CRL due to potential liver toxicity - something that couldn't have been picked up by anybody and totally unexpected. Then again, that's the whole point of clinical trials - to pick up unpredictable and unforeseeable events.
You clearly were referring to me and as you linked that insinuation to a direct lie did you honestly think I could ignore a crass attempt at character assassination.
So knowing I lost a lot of money what is “ getting his pants pulled down as divine retribution” all about if you don’t get some sort of warped pleasure at others misfortune.
Again please show me where I have posted on other boards extolling another share or knocking something I am not happy invested in but if you want to see examples of that you can always look much closer to home.
I get no pleasure whatsoever from others' losses, nor do I post where not invested nor make any predictions about ultimate share price of value - my history (which a number of posters have neither read nor rechecked) will show that, but will also reflect a basic (personal) confidence in eventual profit here from my own research and opinions. I didn't name you Ivy as I felt it would be better left impersonal, but if you choose to stand up and name yourself that's your prerogative.
For the uninitiated Ratty is having a clear go at me but why let the facts get in the way of his opinion.
If you did any research at all you can easily check Linked In and look at mine and the CEOs profiles and you will clearly see we are connected and worked for a number of years together at Merck in the same Division so any insinuation that I was making up some sort of close connection is patent nonsense.
Yes I was confident there and knew the Company backwards and had a big investment there and yes a completely unexpected CRL arrived which no one predicted and Bermuda will back me up if you don’t believe me.
So yes I lost a lot of money which if you want to be happy about then fine as I think it says a lot more about you than me as I actually do not like to see people lose money but I accept it as a necessary part of investing on AIM.In exactly the same way as you can often make it all back and more if you are prepared to learn from the experience and invest in other AIM shares.
Please provide any evidence that I posted on other boards “ ramping on other bios” and if you want to develop this argument then you are on thin ice.
So Ratty I have been reasonable today but you have decided to make it personal in your sly manner with your little digs. If that is the way you want to go then fine as I certainly am happy to debate with you until the cows come home but I will apologise to the board in advance for the inevitable toxic and unwelcome arguments that will follow but at least we can all be clear as to who initiated the situation.
So Ratty at least have the guts to not hide behind insinuation and just name me and for once act like a man and not some sneaky kid who gets pleasure out of others loss and pretends to think they are are funny when we mostly know your true motives.
Indeed I do rats. He also used these BBs to ramp his share purchases in other bios.
WTP asked a very civil question, who exactly here is ramping this share on a daily basis??? As ever not answered.
According to Kashdog it is ramping to even discuss what might be our next news or even when??? But the same poster abuses anybody who has an experience of living with cancer, calls them attention seekers, whilst he goes on about his wealth, fitness, new yachts and all with a wife working in the NHS. Guess that is why so many decent people who still invest here will not post here anymore, and they are right.
C7 you may remember a poster (I forget the name) on another bb who (intentionally or otherwise) left others there with the distinct impression that he was on close terms with the company boss. After a while the company sp collapsed dramatically - said poster I believe also got caught with his pants down which was perhaps Divine retribution, but that's all in the past now I suppose.
""Those that think they can influence the SP with their posts, either positively or negatively, have oversized egos and those who think they can predict the next RNS are indicating their level of desperation and anxiety."""
And what would you call posters who boast about buying a new yacht 6 foot longer than the last Kashdog????
Don’t disagree with your general point but I do feel that there are people on any share board who may have a considerable investment who simply don’t understand the Company they are invested in or are too lazy to do the necessary research.
It is these people that may be influenced to buy/sell if a well constructed but maybe misleading/ exaggerated argument is posted.
However when a simple one liner with an SP figure or non suppported argument is put then I have no sympathy for anyone that makes decisions on those basis.
I don’t believe for one second that posts that ramp or deramp have any effect on the SP. If they did, then with the amount of “Ramp” posts seen here that continually and repetitively promote the potential of SCLP, we would have a price somewhere a lot further north than where it is now.
Those that think they can influence the SP with their posts, either positively or negatively, have oversized egos and those who think they can predict the next RNS are indicating their level of desperation and anxiety.