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Morning TF, Moonparty
Hope you are well?
Interesting discussion. Do you know the original source of Inan's post? It doesn't seem to be from a Trinity Delta report.
Just a bit of a reality check.....
The Mcap of Scancell today is £89M (929M shares @ 9.6p)
If we look at the TD latest forecast from the January update they value SCLP at £304m (33p/share, 25.7p/share once Redmile have redeemed their loan notes)
If you take the TD formula and replace there percentages of success with 100% across all platforms you get an Mcap of £4.8B - so yes, your $6B is not that far off!
But to do that misses the point - you have to factor in risk. No one is going to give you odds of 10:1 on a one horse race are they. And even betting on a horse in a one horse race is not entirely without risk - it could pull up or fall.
I know there are lunatics around who still spout the "no risk" mantra but that is just not true of this or any investment.
The other fallacy comes when you try to convery Mcap to share price. Given the amount of time and resources required to get all the platforms manufactured, tested, approved, and marketed who can say how many new shares will need to be issued? Of course, that will depend on the issue price and how much this can be offset by sales or licence revenue.
So while a £4.8B mcap may look like £4.05 per share with 1.185M in issue, it is probable that this won't be the case. If another billion share needed to be issued, the price per share would "only" be £2.40.
So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?
ATB. AIMHO
I trust our door in the Oxford offices will be a little easier to locate than RG's potting shed all those years ago !!!!
Not too hard I hope, or they’ll bend the cardboard 😂
Instead of Scancell needing to knock on big Pharmas' doors they will be knocking on Scancell's.....Let's hope so miavoce!!!
I think the purpose is to move us from a position where there is limited awareness of Scancell's work and early results to a position where there is high awareness of Scancell's work and early results with major Pharma's keenly awaiting further results. Instead of Scancell needing to knock on big Pharmas' doors they will be knocking on Scancell's.
🔬🧬 Unleashing the Power of Immuno-Oncology! Join us for the 'Advanced Immunotherapies Panel: Cell Therapies & Cancer Vaccines' at the #Sachs_OIF on May 31st, 2024, at the Waldorf Astoria Chicago Hotel. Explore the cutting-edge of cell therapies and cancer vaccines that are setting new paradigms in cancer treatment.
Co-Chaired by:
Kaveri Pohlman, Director, Biotechnology Equity Research, BTIG, LLC
Michael Rice, Expert Advisor, SVP, Cell & Gene Therapy, Lumanity
Panellists:
Deborah Rathjen, Managing Director & CEO, Carina Biotech Limited
Niranjan Sardesai, Founder, President & CEO, Geneos Therapeutics, Inc.
Polly Brown, VP Head of Business Development, Oncology R&D, AstraZeneca
Sath Nirmalananthan, CFO, Scancell
Upendra Marathi, CEO, 7 Hills Pharma Inc
(Yet another conference/presentation...what gives?)
Enjoyed that Moonparty and yes your maths are wrong, (as you know).
But all good fun - and we finish for the weekend in blue !
It's the weekend - Andrew Bridgen was making some dramatic comment in Parliament yesterday re. mRNA vaccines. Worth a watch ? https://youtu.be/z4oSLajsHrY
We can but hope....
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1028311/price-earnings-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-in-europe/
"Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?"
I know the question wasn't addressed to me, but I'm answering anyway!
No, it means a market cap way in excess of $6 billion, maybe 5 - 10x (depending on how much of that $6B gets to the bottom line). So potentially $30 - $60 Billion.
I think that's more than £8 a share though - maybe my maths is wrong :)
Six weeks from dosing to surgery was the plan.
I noticed this a few days ago on PoG - Inan 7839. I'm guessing It's Trinity Delta's previous attempt to put a value BACK THEN on Scancell at SP 30p on a measly 10% chance of success !
""Why is everyone stressed ?
Scancell Holdings PLC - Addressable Market Opportunity. As stated earlier, the overall cancer immuno-therapy market was estimated at $86bn in annual revenues in CY2021 – forecast to increase to $272bn by CY2030 – a 13.6% CAGR – substantially ahead of the 8.2% CAGR for the overall oncology market.
From a financial perspective, one of the factors with the greatest appeal is the wide number of solid cancers the company could potentially address across its 4 platforms – over 10 – ranging from head and neck cancer, to triple negative breast cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cancer, ovarian cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, pancreatic cancer, small cell lung cancer, et al.
If one considers the incidence rate of these various indications across just 7 key markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia and Japan – and after appropriately adjusting for expression rate, diagnosis rate, compliance rate, the addressable patient population is between 550,000 – 600,000 patients (across these 7 markets.
Translating this into a revenue opportunity depends on the mode of treatment elected – for instance chemotherapy and radiation is much cheaper than using check point inhibitors and antibody drug conjugates. Our revenue estimates have been built up by indication with estimates for the United States, versus other markets. To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).
Depending on the market share assumed – every 10-percentage point market share equates to $900m in annual revenue – just on the Modi 1 platform alone. As stated in the investment summary, we think there is potential (if all ducks line up) for the peak annual revenue opportunity (across platforms / indications) to be around US$12 bn.
From an opportunity perspective, the biggest value drivers are Modi – 1 and Modi – 2, given that they target so many indications, followed by the mAbs (SC129, SC134, SC88 and SC27). Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well. Adjusted with even a 10% chance of success, this implies around $600m – more than 3x the current market capitalization of the company""
Why indeed ? But I'm guessing stress would be reduced somewhat if SP was actually 30 pence.
Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?
I'm dreaming on. Back in my box now. GLA
Over there, courtesy of Marcus . . one of 3 Companies on a One2One Forum, 29th May, 6pm at the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, (in Mayfair).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?
hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?viewSource=TwitterUK
This release is part of the softening up process to get us to 30p guys. Why? Cause stiflel is theirs.
So when’s it coming?
Johnny - thanks for that, appreciated
Hi Bermuda,
Your 12.26, you ask “I'm not sure what the interval is between dosing and surgery, perhaps someone else here can tell us, but I expect it's several weeks.”
According to the Procedure Chart “Surgery (+ tumour assessment and a blood test to check on activity of immune cells)” is visit day 50 (Though confusingly the chart refers to week 6):-
https://modi-1-neoadj.digitrial.com/steps/7
The previous page (page 6 on the above link) tells us that initial screening can take up to 4 weeks to check that the patient is suitable for the study. It also says “You will also need to come to the clinic approximately 6 weeks after your surgery, for a final assessment.”
So once a patient is accepted onto the study it takes a total of about 92 days until final assessment (50 days plus approximately 6 weeks).
Thanks Troajan,
TLDR:
Reiterating its 'buy' advice and 30p a share price target, the bank said: "We continue to see significant value in Scancell's highly innovative approach to cancer vaccine development.
"We see the next 12 months as a potentially transformative period for the business and view Scancell as an attractive investment at these levels."
Moonparty,
Worth remembering that the combination arm of the Modi1 trial is only recruiting head and neck and renal cancer patients and originally intended to combine with a single checkpoint inhibitor. As at the end of January they were waiting for approval from the MHRA for a protocol amendment to change the setting of the renal cohort from 3rd line to first line and the combination from a single CPI to to the doublet therapy of Opdivo (PD-1) and Yervoy (CTLA4). Assume they are still waiting for this approval from MHRA and therefore not currently recruiting to the renal cancer cohort. So it may well be that they have only been recruiting to the head and neck cohort which means recruitment has been slower than expected. All we know is that as at July last year they had recruited and dosed 3 combination patients to the safety run in cohort 4. We don't know whether any further patients have been recruited since and if so how many.
As for the neoadjuvant study, as at the 30th January they had recruited a total of 2 patients. The first was a monotherapy patient. He/she had been dosed and resected and their tumour was undergoing analysis. A second patient had been recruited to the combination arm and was about to receive his/her first dose. I'm not sure what the interval is between dosing and surgery, perhaps someone else here can tell us, but I expect it's several weeks.
You'll note that all RNSs simply say early data from these arms will be reported in 2024 but I've listened again to the interims webcast and fortunately Lindy is a little more specific. It will be late this year - possibly Q3 but more likely Q4.
Given that they're only recruiting head & neck cancer patients at the moment, I'm pretty certain that there are no hidden reasons (positive or negative) for the lack of combination/neoadjuvant updates - they simply haven't recruited enough patients yet.
Nevertheless I hope that Scancell will at least provide a progress report on recruitment and possibly early safety data. Perhaps they will.
Given what was last said about the antibodies, it may well be that one of the five possible deals is now close at hand.
It is also interesting to ponder whether the raise late last year was accelerated, due to an expectation that they would be unable to raise during 2024 due to close periods relating to continuing discussions on multiple fronts (as there very well may be at present, given the two trials and the antibody possibilities). Whatever the cause, I see no reason whatsoever for assuming the hiatus in newsflow is negative - and would take a strong view to the contrary.
Its a logical conclusion Burble, and might apply to a number of products.... what would we conclude if they stopped going to these meetings altogether and for no apparent reason? I have had the feeling that something is afoot for a while, if there was a serious problem, they would need to tell us, but if things are going along swimmingly you would asume they would be desperate to tell us, but it appears we are in limbo so you have to ask why?.... NDA is very a possible reason .
So this is the wording on Modi-1 in latest RNS:
"I am also looking forward to presenting early data from patients receiving Modi-1 as a monotherapy in range of hard-to-treat solid tumours, which has shown good T cell responses, safety and tolerability"
We already knew results from mono-therapy had not been as as good as some had hoped/expected.
Careful avoidance of the combo results though - is this simply because those results are not being presented at the conference and/or possibly are not available yet (in statistically significant numbers at least).
It seems modi-1 has had the desired T-cell outcome, so combined with checkpoints one would hope for a much better efficacy read.
I don't think LD would be presenting modi-1 at all if it was dead in the water.
The same thought has occurred to me, because little is being said (and nothing, so far, that is new - despite the ongoing trials etc). There is no obvious reason for them to be in a close period, especially after the raise a few months back - and so I suspect that “things are going on”.
I must admit I’ve been wondering if they’re in a closed period. Just a hunch and I may be wrong
Or maybe in close period /NDA with itself , looks they are in close period since raise of extra fund and when in open period SP is in free fall.
Careful choice of wording regarding Modi-1 suggest that results so far are below expectation ?