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If you don’t believe in the stock, why invest, why post. Very bizarre. What’s your motivation?
Everything anyone writes on boards such as these is "IMO" - so never a need to put it in any post.
PaulBrains, you forgot to put IMO at the end, as that's all your post is.
IMO, there is every chance of a multi-pound share price - I'm not going to repeat the reasons, we all know them.
Yes there will be dilution / partnering, but hopefully at increasing levels as data comes in and the sp rises.
You have a basic misunderstanding of the biotech model if you think stella returns are not possible - most biotechs fail, but those that succeed generate fantastic returns for investors.
The Genmab deal is worth nowhere near £600m to the valuation of the business.
That is absolute nonsense of the highest order.
To date £5.3m has been generated in terms of revenue.
The most it could possibly generate in terms of revenue is $624m under a lot of work and cost.
Incrementally you might argue there's somewhere between £50m and £200m if you're very lucky.
I can see a path to a £500m business but even that won't be easy.
Any ideas of £1+ are fantasy in my view and whilst there is the opportunity for great returns from these levels there is likely to be further dilution and challenges at all stages.
Good luck to one and all , clearly Scancell have something worth listening to ?
I think the data arriving in 2024 will win that argument out right.
If Redmile are convinced by the results then Low Ball is off the table.
Scancell have so many ‘shots on goal’ to turn this derisory share price around.
The scepticism by the market is partly because the enthusiasm shown at the 2022 AGM that deals could be done on AvidiMab and GlyMab just haven’t landed in the anticipated way. The shared glimpses of future happiness to rally the troops have until now only produce one deal with a very close ally, GenMab.
The SCOPE trial is on track to move to a Registration Trial, iSCIB+ is now in patients and Scancell are out singing its praises.
The progress of the ModiFY trial is currently veiled from our view but what little we know is all positive.
Patience is required just a few months longer, then we can have a proper debate on the direction of travel.
Ruck, you make valid points....certainly no secret that I would jump at 50p !!
"Fair enough RR. I just don't see Redmile/Vulpes accepting an offer that low IMO."
Why not? They would have exactly the same decision- certain 50p now or a possible £2 in x years.
Redmile don't have a controlling interest and Vulpes average is around 7.5p so 50p might be tempting.
"We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!"
Fair enough RR. I just don't see Redmile/Vulpes accepting an offer that low IMO.
Morning Chester,
"This is an eternal debate between those who are optimistic and confident that Scancell’s science is going to be a new breakthrough in the treatment of cancers and those that see the very real possibility that the road ahead is populated with ‘what if’s’ and ‘maybe’s’. "
It's interesting that you don't say "optimistic" vs "pessimistic". It's an important point because I believe anyone who has put their hard earned cash into this Must have a degree of optimism that it will ultimately be successful.
The difference is unbridled optimism based on blind faith versus tempered optimism based on facts.
Morning,
This is an eternal debate between those who are optimistic and confident that Scancell’s science is going to be a new breakthrough in the treatment of cancers and those that see the very real possibility that the road ahead is populated with ‘what if’s’ and ‘maybe’s’.
Thankfully the next 6 / 9 months will make the road ahead so much clearer.
I’m definitely a signed up ‘happy clapper’ but I also acknowledge that the data when it arrives has to be commercially relevant.
Tuesday may produce some insights on the ModiFY trial, fingers crossed.
Excelling point TF
Why do they think Genmab only paid about 1% of that figure direct to SCLP and the rest milestones as if it was such a dead cert why would SCLP not held out for a much bigger slice of the pie.
It was the first deal . very important because ultimately it was another way of getting one of getting the Glymab platforms into the clinic . no point sitting on it get it into the arena
LD said fine line between what you keep and give away ?
good move I think
Morning agree Ruck,
The Genmab deal is a case in point and illustrates the thinking of several posters. They make the instant leap from where we are now to a £600m+ incremental valuation to SCLP conveniently missing out the considerable risk,7-10 year timeline and future dilution.
Why do they think Genmab only paid about 1% of that figure direct to SCLP and the rest milestones as if it was such a dead cert why would SCLP not held out for a much bigger slice of the pie.
As you said we may get there but please let us have a balanced debate about probabilities of success and appropriate valuations not pie in the sky speculation based on what May happen not by those dreamers who reside on fantasy island.
WTP,
"Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well? "
True, but that potential revenue will be over the next five years or so. So whilst an mcap of £4B is possible, it's not guaranteed, it won't be next week and the amount of dilution required is unknown.
We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!
Unfortunately the important investment considerations of risk, time and funding seem to be glossed over on these boards.
Oh, my apologies, I missed 'Glee Club' as well. Comedy gold blasts from the past.
'Astute.'
Wonderful.
Dragon,
Where do I say anywhere about the SP bit not doubling or tripling.RR talks about 50p which is a five fold increase and if it all comes good it could easily get beyond that even to £1.
What I am countenancing against are the valuations in the multi billions which some on here have been espousing for over 10 years.
You can see the likes of RW response to anyone that does not agree with at least a 10,20 or 50 fold increase from current levels he simply resorts to type of anyone who does not share his vision by one line caustic utterances.
What is amusing is he actually believes there is some sort of “ boiler room” conspiracy to deliberately keep the SP here low.
He could not be further from the truth as there is no need do anything so count up how many posts the likes of me have made on here the last 6 months hardly any and like any SH I want the SP to rise the only difference being I along with others take a much more balanced view and are not in such a desperate situation as likes of Ratty and the other over exposed glee club who ignored the astute advice they have been constantly given
Yes...the double/triple WWE tag team as ever.
Predictably tiresome to see who pops up with what and when. Also faintly amusing, to be honest, but definitely predictable and tiresome. AB124 will probably be along in a bit too.
Ivy, I completely disagree. The SP can double easily on a positive RNS. Scancell has always told us, when the time is right, the PR will kick it in. Punters are waiting on the sidelines to pile in.
Nice balanced post RR and a reminder of reality here and in fairness I do think a lot more LTH have readjusted their expectations to a more realistic level here.
Some of the more ambitious valuation targets as you say make a complete leap between undoubted great potential and blockbuster Approved drugs totally ignoring the risks,the timeline and the additional costs in getting there all of which are going to seriously impact on the journey here.
It is hard to try and out a valuation on the current assets in terms of what someone may pay but I will make a few observations.
I doubt one party will make a specific bid for the whole of SCLP given the diverse range and stage of assets so the value is not the sum of all the parts.
Is really hard to guess but imo the outcome here will be determined by RM and Vulpes and in particular the CLN conversion next year.Redmile will have an exit strategy which may or may not be aligned to that of SH but they are unlikely to await the full potential of each and every asset.
Those that say the likes of SCLP cannot go private are simply guessing as none of us know but if they intend to progress the drug development of iSCIB 1 they may decide that is best served by going private and the BoD will be persuadable if required.
I am confident that we will each see a nice return from these levels but be prepared for a wait at least 12-18 months but AIM liquidity is horrendous at the moment and you need to attract new investors to make the SP move in a significant and sustained manner.This will not be achieved by a few LTP topping up here as many if very happy with their level of holdings and we need positive and regular newsflow.
SCLP have never been one for providing regular updates and often the news whilst very positive is often accompanied by further improvements to the Science which Althoigh welcome in improving outcomes has to be balanced against the extended timelines it invariably leads to.
I very much doubt a bid at 50p would succeed if the SCIB1 / iSCIB1+ results are as we hope they will be by the end of this year. Maybe £1 would succeed if Vulpes and Redmile are willing to accept but I think that would be a big IF. A $1.5bn market (or much larger for iSCIB1+) could easily deliver $1bn annual profit given how relatively easy it is to manufacture the vaccine...
RR - I've probably got my maths wrong, but are you saying you think an early bid (for the whole lot?) would only be worth 50p per share i.e. MCAP of £500m approx.? Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well?
Just seems super conservative no?
"So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?"
RE your last paragraph, if I felt that way about one of my investments I'd be thinking my capital would be "much" better invested elsewhere, no?
Morning TF, Moonparty
Hope you are well?
Interesting discussion. Do you know the original source of Inan's post? It doesn't seem to be from a Trinity Delta report.
Just a bit of a reality check.....
The Mcap of Scancell today is £89M (929M shares @ 9.6p)
If we look at the TD latest forecast from the January update they value SCLP at £304m (33p/share, 25.7p/share once Redmile have redeemed their loan notes)
If you take the TD formula and replace there percentages of success with 100% across all platforms you get an Mcap of £4.8B - so yes, your $6B is not that far off!
But to do that misses the point - you have to factor in risk. No one is going to give you odds of 10:1 on a one horse race are they. And even betting on a horse in a one horse race is not entirely without risk - it could pull up or fall.
I know there are lunatics around who still spout the "no risk" mantra but that is just not true of this or any investment.
The other fallacy comes when you try to convery Mcap to share price. Given the amount of time and resources required to get all the platforms manufactured, tested, approved, and marketed who can say how many new shares will need to be issued? Of course, that will depend on the issue price and how much this can be offset by sales or licence revenue.
So while a £4.8B mcap may look like £4.05 per share with 1.185M in issue, it is probable that this won't be the case. If another billion share needed to be issued, the price per share would "only" be £2.40.
So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?
ATB. AIMHO
I trust our door in the Oxford offices will be a little easier to locate than RG's potting shed all those years ago !!!!