We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Dormers have a habit of becoming unhinged and are transparent.
Don't you mean Doomer window :)
It seems to me that Scancell have a (Dormer) window of opportunity over the next fifteen months or so to prove the value of the Commercial side, presupposing that there's no approach for the company in the meantime.
Since no one is saying that there's no possibilty of an early bid (at perhaps more than twice the current Share price) in the meantime it seems that the BOD MUST produce something that will tempt any suitor to pay more.
Not much wrong with that surely? there's plenty that would vote to accept that (and anyway even if they voted against they'd have an impossible fight on their hands if our one and a bit Hedge Funds decided they would be happy to accept (for reasons we probably would only undersatnd with hindsight).
Ball's firmly in the BOD's court in my view.
Let us hope they prove me wrong (and get the Shareprice to GBP1 plus before October 2022).
That's a reasonable challenge I would have thought. Chance for the Commercial whizzes on the BOD to really shine (after hiding their collective lights under a bushel for the last nine or so years)! We must remember that they have had the chance to commercialise the most cutting edge platforms available Globally since 2012, but with strangely no success.
Otherwise I guess an interim 50p offer will look attractive.
We can but wait and see.
AIMO
At last I hope to be able to comment. Since apple increased their security I clicked something and have been blocked out from any feedback.
I concur with the poor communications. Even DMing sclp asking about how a shareholder motion is raised has had no reply. Indeed our wonder chair has done about 5 years and may be due for a change before Cliff gets to the firing line. At least RG said that he occasionally did look at this board. Any potential cosignatories to a motion about regular communications?
It's like a comedy rerun at times - the perennial line was 'they're going to run out of money' (always a possibility, granted) then it was 'they'll never get a placing away' (not forgetting all the authoritative posters who had "the inside track on forward selling" which never actually occurred), then the placing was never enough, then the board (usually RG) was inept/incompetent/unqualified, then each new board member was allowed about 6 weeks of praise as the right choice before their head was demanded on a plate, then it all gets forgotten that this same incompetent board who don't know how to do business have actually secured 50 odd million in funds from a global bio investment fund (ignoring Vulpes as well, with a proven track record and their own due diligence of course).
Any implications of the formation of Zachary are now forgotten too, and any permissions sought that take more than a fortnight are seen as a failure. The other week we also saw a pathetic effort to start fear that Redmile might be looking to get out in frustration at not having seen sufficient return on their investment. 11 months isn't long for them, but an eternity to a level 2 trainspotter.
So what are we left with? A buyout? - remember the push to convince everyone that 21p would be a good buyout price? All gone quiet at that price, but as you say RP, it is now around 50p but same 'marketing' strategy.
So really quite funny to see how little wiggle room the concerted dormers have, while still 'holding strong' with so many monotonous insecurities. Strange people...
Last year people were talking about a TO in the 20s
This year in the 50s (double)
So carrying on at this rate
2022 £1
2023 £2
2024 £4
2025 :-)
But RuckRover
Have you forgotten the Scancell Shell Company?
Could you get mine too?
LOL
Chelsea,
I'd say it was more "sluggish" than snail-like.
I'll get my coat...
""Team Scancells snail like approach to commercialisation""!!!!!! Lol, one very unhappy shareholder today?
Moonparty, Fair enough I respect your view.
It's great to be able to discuss, thanks for your contribution and open response.... Appreciated! :-)
AB124: Maybe, if a deal were structured so that they still got a return on the success of the pipeline. Any such deal would dilute their potential returns, but who knows?
I don't think Redmile are going to sell out at the first opportunity that comes their way for a relatively small profit.
They did the due diligence and are aware what the valuation could be once data proves up the science.
Moonparty,
so even if redmile had an interest in a PROVEN Company that was prepared to take Scancell's IP on and expedite the development of the platforms in a more Bio friendly environment (maybe in the States) that it would leave Team Scancell to continue along its snail like trail to Commercialisation? they'd still get their potential profits but probably quicker.
Not so sure myself.
AIMO
I'm not so sure
I agree moonparty and I believe that this is evidenced by the fact that Redmile provided the additional funds allowing Scancell to further develop the mAbs before entering into any commercial deals (if you recall a deal was on the cards but was not pursued once red mile provided the additional funds).
"Do you think that Redmile wouldn't be in favour of any Offers over say 50p? I reckon they'd go straight through."
Have to disagree - Redmile invested on the massive potential, not for a quick profit, their plan will be to wait for data and maturation of the Scancell pipeline, IMO.
RuckRover
I don't think that Redmile would be unaware of any T/O that came in. If they didn't like it I'm sure Counters could be produced well before any requirement to RNS arrived. If Redmile don't like it it ain't gonna happen IMV. In any case any offer that exceeds 13.5p is a profit of substance to them. I imagine that's where the DE comment about 22P came from. Do you think that Redmile wouldn't be in favour of any Offers over say 50p? I reckon they'd go straight through.
My point is (much as you have said) that they basically control the direction of Scancell and in the event of any takeover offer being made to Scancell involving a Redmile friendly offeror I would see their weoght being lined up in favour of the offer rather than against. In other words unless something unexpected arrived on the horizon (and any offeror knows what the vote count is/could be) then Redmile hold many or a very important number of the cards in the pack.
AIMO
AB,
If Redmile opposed the takeover they could use the CLNs to their advantage. If they agreed to a takeover there would be an agreement to repay plus interest.
Not really an issue unless things got nasty.
Good informed discussions this morning and interesting to get any update from OXT which contains any new info but I suspect it will be a routine communication.
Redmile and Vulpes have validated the science due to their large investment and very much believe in the upside from their very low average.
As has been said these control the future here and will decide what happens and when and sure we will all do well here but Redmile is a hedge fund who will want all bases covered.
Very interested who is selling as the perfect storm of waiting for news,low volume and a seller usually means one thing though doing it in a market orderly manner is the stated aim.
RuckRover
From the scancell Fundraise Document Oct last year.
"The New Convertible Loan Notes are required to be redeemed on the Redemption Date which will be two
years after the date of execution of the Convertible Loan Note Instrument. The New Convertible Loan Notes
can be converted into Ordinary Shares at a conversion price of 13 pence per Ordinary Share. The Conversion
Price is subject to customary adjustments. Conversion is also subject to any Takeover Code restrictions
that may apply at the time of such Conversion. No Conversion can occur prior to the Redemption Date,
save for in the event of a takeover offer being made to shareholders of the Company or upon a Nasdaq
listing."
Note the exceptions to non conversion before maturity.
"...."save for in the event of a takeover offer being made to shareholders of the Company or upon a Nasdaq
listing."
Want to check the effect of Conversion of remaining CLNs?
AIMO
AB,
No, I'm talking about a deal before conversion. The bid would be on the basis they were taking on the debt and repaying it.
RR keep trying to get out to the garden but have you allowed for the remaining CLNs ?
AB,
The balance of power is interesting - PIs are the largest group of holders at 48%. So if we agreed to a 50p takeover, we would only need support from one other group, either Redmile, Vulpes, Calculus or the BOD.
If Redmile wanted to vote it down, they would need support from everyone else (other than PIs.)
I think if it came to it, the PI vote would be split. I think many (half?) would be happy to see 50p but there are still plenty who dream of ££££s. I remember a DE comment when he said back in 2012 they thought £3 was possible - then reality set in! That reality doesn't seemed to have permeated through to everyone.
I think a low-ball bid of 60-70p could generate a fair bit of support from various parties.
Anyway, if we get some news tomorrow it could squash all this speculation.
AIMO
Crumbs,
I know we've disagreed on this before so don't want to make a big deal out of it, but...
"I know Lindy knows the value of her platforms and is not going to be giving anything away"
I'm sure Prof Durrant is well aware of the scientific value and medical potential but as to commercial value, perhaps not. In fact there's probably no one on the BOD who truly knows the worth. I suspect that given their walking away from deals, they have a rather inflated view of the value. I would think the only one with an accurate and realistic view is Redmile. They will have an assessment for what it is worth now as a job lot (pretty low), what it will be worth in 18 months time with good/bad/indifferent results.
Crumbs
Ref your ,
"AB ... I know Lindy knows the value of her platforms and is not going to be giving anything away"
The value is only what the present company can achieve, which to date is a blooming great (Controlling) interest by one and a bit Hedge funds.
I reckon that they can achieve the dreamed for value of Scancell rather than our current BOD who've had eight years to do it but even now (one year after the GBP50m injection) have failed to achieve anything reportable to their Private Investors! Quite a record!
Who would you say can achieve the CSO's dream of commercialising her Science?
Redmile or JC and co? I reckon another JC might achieve it but even then that would be a miracle!
IMO if LD wants her valuation of her IP realised it will be in a company other than Scancell or maybe Scancell merged into another larger more Dynamic sector operator where her dreams of realising her science can be matched with the appropriate financial rewards not only for her, but the new controlling Company their and the World at large.
The last sentence assumes Scancell isn't taken by a private Company which is even worse for us PIs in Scancell!
AIMO
RuckRover
Not that clever but I'd be surprised to see a private shareholder revolt at anything above 50p and even if there was and Vulpes/Redmile supported it (stranger things have happened) then it's a done deal. Think CLNs.
This might have had some bearing on DE's cooling and Expectation Management last year over the Fundraises (but I have nothing more than conjecture to support that comment and unreservedly apologise if I am incorrect).
I think that Scancell are driving themselves into the ground with lack of communication which erodes trust.
Let's face it the BOD haven't covered themselves in glory over the last nine years (even though LD continues to produce more and more cutting edge science which doesn't get near Commercialisation).
FWIW I don't think the Big holders can be beaten here and frankly I'd happily take anything North of 50p simply to get into a few shares in any company that takes them.
We also have had the incredibly (and I use that word advisedly) tight range of late.
I just wish I had a line into the likely/possible eventual destination of Scancell and its IP and CSO.
AIMO
Ruck comms is a poor show and I'd have to agree now they have the money they basically are not too bothered about us....I suppose their way of looking at things is they are busy working to add share holder value... which no doubts they are but we know part of being such a company is keeping good clear communication relations with investors... and yeah we collectively make up one of the most significant holders of scancell... so poor show Cliff and co!
AB ... I know Lindy knows the value of her platforms and is not going to be giving anything away... we had all this being taken out at 23p nonsense before... Evans even got in on it... IMHO never going to happen ....partnerships yes and I would love a full pipeline one with a serious capable player.... but if not platform or product ones....
certainly with trials... maybe one century coming you do not sell the company ..... Covidity could add $$$ billions here especially with AvidiMab being involved and well we all know or should the potential value of moditope which modi1 trial could prove up....
So no fear for me of any low ball buyouts.... I do wish they pulled off significant partnership deals though.
BTW that they did not going through with the MaB deal I think shows their thinking.... they are going to add value to get value.