George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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It would be a sign of confidence if we saw concerted buying from our management. NEDs have stepped up regularly. Time to see if Johnson and Isabelle are prepped to put money in...if not now, when?
Zeus 2023 rev forecast
H1 -£3.3m actual
Q3 - £3.7m
Q4 - £6m
Total - £13m
I hope they are right.
Most of the equipment to hit £50m run rate has now been installed per Zeus.
H2 rev guidance has been dropped, now forecasting breakeven in H2 rather than profit.
Clearly the ramp-up is still progressing slower than they would like. They are running low on cash.
Q4 will be crucial to proving to the market they can deliver and either avoid raising cash or doing so at a reasonable rate / discount. Fingers crossed.
Shareholders should not underestimate the complexity and difficulty in ramping up production, particularly as we are the first company other than Brembo to do this. This complexity will help protect from competition and mean margins will stay high for a good while.
When we start to deliver, this will be a very valuable company with unique know-how.
Agreed ….and I’d like to hear them explain their marketing strategy if s/potential customers, shareholders & the media have no idea who their customers are. Utterly daft in the digital age
Finncap and Zeus are pretty much in agreement about slightly reduced margins due to inflation (66>60%) with the subsequent impact on profits . Outside of this probably the main concern which will weigh is the comment at the end of Zeus's note -
'We understand management are considering new sources of finance, should this be required.'
It probably explains the share price weakness and would be a good point for the management to address in their presentation.
Tend to agree ….Zeus have cut their numbers and target price which doesn’t help; can’t see it drifting much lower but if it does will pick up more.
The cash situation is a concern, however the blunt instrument of a dilutive cash call on s/holders may have been Route One previously, but given OEM support and the growing order book, and with a fresh CFO, I would though that there are a range of other routes available to them that would reduce the need for a call on s/holders, and so I expect the sp to bounce in due course, helped by a couple of decent contract announcements before year end.
Memo to Board: high time Bundred dispensed with the fiction around not naming the customers. Doesn’t he realise the power of brands? Why on earth aren’t we harnessing that ? Utterly crazy, if Aston Martin, Lucid, Koenig, etc are customers NOT to release the names
It feels like the bottom has been reached and SCE is now (finally) on the upswing. The market probably won't like the today's bare numbers (and the market isn't really forward looking at the moment), so we might need to wait for the next TU/or FY results/significant contract wins, before seeing any real improvement in the sp.
SCE won't need cash for keeping the lights on, but may need to raise to fund the expansion. Hopefully this can be done at a later date either through loans or at least waiting for a recovery in the sp before raising.
Encouraging signs for me are Janus Henderson increasing their stake recently (at 27p) and management putting a lot of their own money in at 32-33p.
Not sure what all the insiders were fretting about, these results are as expected after the resolved H1 issues. Good to see that despite it all, revenue has continued to grow.
With reiteration of a further contract win to be announced, PCP up to £420m and H2-2023 revenues expected to be significantly higher it looks like Knowsley is starting to come right.
Frustrating update, but not enough to throw the baby out.
My main concerns are clearly cash erosion and SP going so low as to invite takeover bids.
They must show Q4 profitability, without a cash call, for me.
Unless I am missing something, then all is as outlined in the trading update 2 month ago. It seems to be proceeding as planned with no further glitches over the past couple of months.
I guess it will take another half years results to cement the confidence of investors although a further contract award as potentially flagged will do no harm.
Worth pointing out Bundred and Johnson have raised £40.4m from s/holders just since April 2020 !!! With current mkt cap of £74m that funding = 54% current mkt cap.
If thes boys can’t get their act together (and soon), then PE or a major listed materials group is going to do it for them. You don’t have to be a PE guru to work out that s/holders have spent 10s of millions to back the tech to get to this point! With proven tech, growing demand, a big order book, & Tier One customers ST should be flying. The fact they aren’t is a real cause for concern, as they look a slam dunk for a bid
That’s a concern of mine too! We know the production process has stuttered and been rejigged several times. So what’s COO’s take? We also know that financial forecasting has t been their forte ( remember the surprise profits warning and also fund raise?), so let’s hope Cunningham didn’t leave a mess behind that CFO decides needs restating. One hopes that these two understand that investor confidence remains fragile out there. We haven’t had a decent uncaveated statement out of the company for ages!
The main uncertainty exercising the market right now is getting over the cash flow hump. The company reckons they’ll have around £2.5M in the bank by year end 31/12. Once the market can see the company becoming cash flow positive with full production and not needing any further cash raise in the meantime, then the share price should get cracking. Until then, I hope the interim update next week demonstrates production moving ahead as forecast leading to a full year revenue number of £16M.
The new CFO has been in place for two weeks so will be getting her teeth into the numbers as we type. New COO likewise. Let’s hope they haven’t found holes in the processes!
One presumes the Board is fully aware of just how important the messaging is going to be for investors on the 27th. Especially so given the bullish comments made in the trading update in July about contract news. So far, 2 months we’ve had no further contract announcements so it looks like that part at least all hangs on final quarter:
The Board still expects the Company to be profitable in the second half of 2023.
The Company is continuing its work with customers on converting its prospective contact pipeline into firm orders with further announcements expected in the current financial year.”
Spot on Bod
The board recently put £300k of their own money into buying shares at full price on the open market, so I'd say they probably wouldn't have done that if they knew a fundraise was coming.
It wouldn't be a surprise. The incoming CFO and COO, combined with an inflationary environment, can say it's going to cost more than thought to build the furnace capacity etc. That said, I think it would be a very poor time to raise money unless they can say they've put the recent production problems behind them. Otherwise they won't get much for the new issue! I just hope it's not another stitch-up with PIs betting last dibs as usual.
I fact, a better time to raise money would be to say production is sorted AND here's a new OEM contract! But the share price is not telling us that's about to happen!
...interim results incoming on the 27th. Maybe cash raise needed...?
Https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/surface-transform-ceramic-rotors.681027/
"I have had the Surface Transforms rotors on my 488 GTB for a little more than two years now - coupled with Pagid RSC1 pads and upgraded brake lines (switching to steel from rubber) they are definitely a better set-up than the OEM Brembo."
Press release on launch on Lucid’s website as of yesterday. Start taking US orders in Sept at almost $300k per vehicle: seems like it could be big sales, and decent shop window for our brake tech. If US investors pick up on this shares could fly, but then again, I’ve been hoping for that for ages.
Terrific PR for SCE in this new article about the "madcap bonkers" Lucid Air Sapphire, with deliveries beginning next month:
Https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a44755999/2024-lucid-air-sapphire-preview-drive/
"2024 Lucid Air Sapphire Delivers Face-Punching Performance
There's no way to prepare yourself for the mind-blowing and nose-crunching acceleration of a 1234-hp electric supersedan.
By Elana ScherrUpdated: Aug 8, 2023"
"The whole car sits lower on wider wheels and tires—20-inch wheels in the front and 21 in the rear, both wrapped in a just-for-Sapphire Michelin Pilot Sport 4S tire that uses a firmer compound in the center and a stickier rubber for the shoulders to optimize grip in corners and rolling resistance in a straight line. The wheels are an open-spoke design specific to Sapphire and come with removable carbon-fiber aero covers.
Although who would want to hide those massive carbon-ceramic rotors? They look like small planets orbiting behind the wheels—16.5-inch rotors with 10-piston calipers in the front and 15.4-inch rotors with four-piston calipers in the rear. Lickfold says that the team tested several variants of rotor before choosing discs from U.K.-based Surface Transforms, a company that specializes in carbon-ceramic made from longer strands of fiber for better thermal management. If you're going to make a street car that runs a 9.0-second quarter-mile time, it's good if it can slow down at the finish line. Repeatedly."
Yes, andypa, and they continue to guide to existing 2023 revenues which are £20M I believe. As H1 only delivered £3.3M, that is over £16M for H2. The key over the next five months is to get over that cash hump. It’s clearly still reducing until they reach the point of profitability which must be in this period as they still expect a profit in H2. But they also plan to spend £3.5M on capex to achieve the resilience needed to cover the customers needs when there are stoppages in production for whatever reason.
The new CFO will probably arrive just as cash is crunching into its pinch point before profits start to be generated. What fun for her and good luck.
I hold plenty!
"Customer arrears have been reduced over the past six weeks. Accordingly, the Board maintains its 2023 revenue expectations."
Since the last update in June production has continued to improve - forecasts are still in place.
Cash is obviously getting tight. They may have to take on some short-term debt, but nothing significant, as long as production rates continue to improve. This is a high-margin business, so increased sales will quickly help to improve the cash position.
I do agree that the cash burn is slightly alarming, and a raise would be a disaster. However the fact that the volume of brakes manufactured has increased by >80% gives me some encouragement that the capacity ramp up is working, albeit behind schedule and I think they should be able to mop up the overspend.
The new CFO and COO should help keep things on track as well.
Plus, exciting to have the titbit of further contract announcements dangled in front of us! If customers are prepared to place orders, well that's the ultimate endorsement really.
Mildly positive update. At least they avoided another pointlessly downbeat update; after the comms debacles of recent updates that’s something to cheer. However, I am concerned about the cash figure, which has run down substantially. Another cash call would be disastrous for managements damaged reputation for competence, and frankly it can’t be ruled out… not surprised sp marked down. We need a string of positive contract wins to lift the shadow over the company imho.