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elrico, hate to break it to you but I don't hang on every word you write. Some of it is useful but much of it is pumper level irrationality. I made comments and you seem intent on winning a few arguments that you have conjured in your head. Let me summarize as it seems your reading comprehension is lacking:
Me: I think it may take awhile for the product to garner a large following. While not expensive, it isn't cheap either.
You: But but there are so many sufferers...
Me: Yes. Accepted. However, it will still take time. I am an investor and think it will take time (ie not going to panic). If you disagree that it will take time, then offer up a forecast for 3 months and see who knows what they are talking about.
You: But but I talked to SA....
I really don't know what you are arguing about. AGAIN, LET ME REPEAT...1. I believe this is a good product, 2. I believe it will take time to gain momentum. IF YOU DISAGREE AND WANT TO SHOOT DOWN OTHERS VIEWS, then don't be evasive. step up to the plate my friend and let's see whose forecast is more accurate. This will be entertaining to your subscribers I bet!
Jimmy,
You once again misrepresent what I have said.
I am unsure if you are a fool or a cunning disruptor with a bear motive dressed as a clown?
The numbers I quote are based on discussions with SA. That said, I have SA have always caveated the same are NOT forecasts, but targets. Moreover, never have I of SA given guidance on the target being the launch target or even a Q1-Q4 target. You seem not to understand this basic fact, even though it has been repeated countless times.
Every new product needs to build momentum at a rate the company can handle, be it production capacity, logistics, and sales. The first parts of this are in place. It is about building awareness.
I would avoid trying to work out the sales by using sales order numbers because nobody knows how these are generated. I don't believe it is the same reporting system as OPTI.
...though 2 years out seems too long imo.
Skid, "2 years out". Yes, that was exactly my point when I said that it would require momentum and patience, but you and Elrico , by throwing out those millions of sufferers figures, suggested that the uptake will be faster.
SkinBioTherapeutics (LON: SBTX) launched the AxisBiotix-Ps food supplement in the UK and US on 29 October. This psoriasis treatment is the company’s first commercial product, and it could generate cash to further develop other products.
The AIM-quoted microbiome-based skin treatments developer launched the AxisBiotix-Ps food supplement on World Psoriasis Day. The company is selling the sachets directly.
A successful study was completed for AxisBiotix-Ps earlier this year and three-quarters of the people in the study reported skin feeling less itchy, less red and less irritable. Two-thirds said that they had fewer flaky patches of skin. The majority also slept better and felt more energetic. This is not a pharmaceutical, so it does not have to go through such a rigorous approval proc...
https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/skinbiotherapeutics-commercial-launch-could-transform-business/
This would still be in its infancy without the drive and direction of Stuart and hence just another under value d asset under SOH
As a ****ed-off holder of OPTI, I have never understood why O H sold the best of his assets.
Jimmy.
I am not actually a direct shareholder, hold indirect through OPTI.
If the trial success is replicated in the general public shareholders should really look two years out rather than three months - with low opex, high margin this should throw off profit and cash on volume sales.
You are correct in some ways, but the power now is in social media which can click the switch about 100x quicker than when I was a lad.
Skid, Elrico - both of you want to throw about various statistics but the only one that matters is the number of subscriptions in the near future. If you pay attention, I am not disputing those numbers are they are available. What I am saying is that it will take time. Neither of you agree so it is fair to ask you in turn what you envision the number will be within a quarter. It is ultimately the true measure of whether or not you know what you are talking about.
AquaeSulis01,
Spot on. The logic behind shipping 1 free with the first order is so a potential subscriber has time to see early benefits, and the PR campaign that highlights continued improvements beyond the study limit is very important. In my view, this will provide create confidence to commit to at least a second month, equal to 4 fourth months, assuming the second-order is for two months supply. This is why I believe we need a few months before we start playing the guessing game.
Croda remains on track. We could get news any day, and we have no clue what the nature of the news will be, so I certainly would not be tempted to trade at this stage. We have already seen a few long term holders regret being tempted to trade around the 30p level, this being the previous strong resistance before the wall fell. Many of them never got back in, it became a psychological barrier.
Jimmy.
I think you must live in the 1950s. 2.1 million people just in the UK use disposable contact lenses for about the same cost, God knows how many have gym memberships they don't use, netflix,Amazon prime, spotify, newspaper subscriptions......
I know one sufferer and it makes his life an absolute misery, he would pay double this if it works on him. Cost and demand will not the barrier here.
£1.50 is less than the price of a decent coffee & certainly less than a pint of beer!
Ye at least a month away before we can hope to see any word-of-mouth reactions on the psoriasis forums, my focus is currently on Croda and specifically whether anything interesting emerges from LA Beauty Connect that starts tomorrow
Jimmy,
I don't know if I should laugh or cry?
Do you seriously want to do this dance again?
The NSF has over 6m active members, to market AxiBiotix to. SBTX will have done extensive research on the price point for sales; the original price was £1p/d suggests they have been given guidance on the value at this stage. £40 per month is well within, if not well under similar products price.
AxisBiotix has only been on sale for three days, and the lemmings are out with silly comments.
Give the team a chance, for goodness sake.
All...£1.50 per day is not a lot when you break it down per day but you don't have the option of paying one day at a time. You pay a large amount upfront. My view is that this won't get going until it builds momentum through word of mouth and this will take time. As I said, I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong but am approaching this investment with patience though the share price action as of late seems to indicate that I am in the minority.
Let's make this interesting - what do people expect the number of subscriptions to be in the first 3 months?
Who was attacking the stock and the price set, certainly not me? The point made was that even at £1.50 per sachet it will be unaffordable to some who will continue to have to rely on the NHS prescribed treatments. However, as stated they will be more than enough who will have sufficient funds to see whether it works for them
DireCons - absolutely. If you’re going to attack a stock, do so with credible ammo.
This price point is lower than I’d expected from the outset. Think of it this way; sufferers will be spending way more than £1.50/day on supps/products that are only abating symptoms so far.
£1.50/day for a literally life changing product. No brainer.
From what I've been told by 2 sufferers , 1 who was on the study, they would happily pay twice that much having seen the results. Neither I would class a wealthy.
AquaeSulis01 - We’re not a charity. It’s a product that has a price point, that works, and will be bought up by sufferers. The majority viewing it as a small price to pay. And it is, relatively - as I’ve suggested.
beinthelead, it is not a rubbish statement for someone who is in the position of having to make a choice between putting on the heating or bread on the table. However, as has been pointed out by elrico previously, the US NPF has several million paid up members and just one percent of that number with disposable income electing to subscribe will be a game changer for this company so the price is unlikely to put off those potential customers from trying the product
£1.50/day to resolve/nullify years of discomfort. It could be life changing for some. All for the price of a rubbish brew? What a statement to make.
JL,
Your focus is out of whack. I do not know if you know anyone that suffers from psoriasis, I do. If you did, and or listened to some of the testimonies on the AxisBiotix website, perhaps you would conclude as everyone else here does, the price is reasonable and not over and above alternatives that may not have undergone a consumer study to validate it.
It took me two minutes to find these two snippets of costs. Did you try?
There’s no cure for psoriasis, but ointments, creams, moisturizers, and other medications can relieve your symptoms. They aren’t always cheap though. One study tallied the average lifetime cost to treat psoriasis symptoms and related emotional health at $11,498. And that price tag likely doesn’t include biologics, one of the most expensive treatments for severe psoriasis.
Another source, though older, is more telling.
Psoriasis treatments can be very expensive. According to the National Psoriasis Foundation (NPF), one in three people with psoriasis have trouble paying for the cost of care. The issues range from having no health insurance to having health insurance with co-pays that are out of reach or no coverage for psoriasis treatments.
“There is no question that cost of treatment is a huge issue for many people with psoriasis,” says Colby Evans, MD, a dermatologist in Austin, Texas. “I would hope that no one sees their psoriasis go untreated because of the cost,” says Evans, who chairs the NPF’s National Phototherapy Copayment Task Force, which is working to help lower costs for patients.
Not only do frequent phototherapy treatments add up, but psoriasis medications can run into the thousands of dollars. A tube of topical psoriasis medications might cost between $500 and $600. And biologics, a relatively new class of treatment for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, can run $15,000 to $20,000 or more a year.
Aqua, I am aware of the extra supply and while it could entice a few more people to try out the product, I still believe that it will take time for subscriptions to take off. Many people will already be paying for current treatments so may adopt a wait and see attitude. I would be happy to be wrong. Regardless, SBTX will have its day eventually as this will be a snowball effect.
jimmy, because of the extra months supply on the first order the cost is actually half the figures you state, which for someone who has struggled with psoriasis and found nothing else to satisfactorily treat it I would suggest is more than reasonably priced.
Whackery, at £1.5/$2 per day, I expect this to take time to build a loyal following. Many people just do not have that kind of money lying around to experiment but as someone else wrote, give it time for its impact to make its way through chat forums and word of mouth. The trial results are impressive so I have faith that this will eventually make it onto sufferers' radars.