We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi elric,
Thank you for taking the time to comment and appreciate the 20000 - 30000 figure mentioned is a ballpark conservative initial rollout range based on ensuring the supply chain is robust enough to satisfy subscribers whose number I suspect will be far in excess of this figure should the psoriasis societies act in their "partner role" to promote this. Regarding no-one disputing this range, I think if you read back through Belgrano's and Toyin's posts you will find there was some debate whether this level of supply could initially be achieved.
Have not lost sight of the Sederma/Croda launch and its importance, especially as the title of this thread is "Beauty Parade" and seems to have been hijacked to discuss axis, however, the immediate initial measurable income will start to roll in from Axis, whilst the even bigger rewards will follow from skinbiotix.
AquaeSulis01,
Nobody is disputing the 25k subscription number. My concern is the target become a forecast without Stuart saying this is the case. The nearest he has come to confirm this to me is, "I am not in the habit of setting targets and missing them."
Are we not in danger of focusing on Axis and missing the opportunity with Croda/Sederma? We have touched on the logistics of supply and demand for Axis, and yet completely ignore the considerable opportunity for the production of the lysate for the cosmetics VIPs. Remember, Croda has invested c£5 million on a dedicated production line that will run exclusively to produce the lysate. This is very significant, especially when you consider the type of household global partners SBTX will be providing their IP for. They will be selling millions of units PA worth double-digit royalties and no cash outlay from SBTX. They sit back and count the cash.
Believe you can be happy Toyin, if its small batches being produced Winclove can keep on churning it out, batch after batch.
The linch pin for me is Stuart's close contacts with the US national psoriasis association who are going to ...
1. Endorse our product .
2. Offer it at a very slight discount to their members.
3. Offer to advertise freely the product to their 6M members.
4. Already calling SBTX "partner".
In return they have.
1. Got Stuart to prioritise the treatment development for their suffering membership.
2. Also may have had a say in the price point, which is well below most treatments on the market.
These are the missing pieces in the development puzzle, which will cause this stock to fly...So get them golden tickets while you still can... and if anyone wants a friendly wager for a tenner to charity...I'll stake product is available nearer to the start of the fourth quarter than the end, because some contingency was built into the plan...
Also, worth reading the blog at the link that was posted by elric on the SBTX lse BB in Dec20 following the podcast re the 20000-30000 numbers
https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2020/12/skinbiotherapeutics-ceo-stuart-ashman.html
Toyin, further in in the interview, Stuart mentions the 8M USA Psoriasis members and figures based on feedback from that society. Personally, I believe a number of investors have bought into a company with zero revenue and a £89.36M market cap on the basis of those sort of launch figures and would be disappointed if there was a significant difference announced. As you say, those numbers have been aired in different interviews not only with elric but also Tom Winnifrith so I hope they have some basis in fact.
AquaeSulis
SA did mention this in another interview which I listened to again today. I just have something in my head that this was SA using 25k as an example and not the actual figure that would be used. But I do hope I am wrong and it is 25k, that would make me very happy.
Belgrano, agreed, I don’t think we’ll need additional investor interest if all goes well but it would still be great to get out of Aim. I think we’d all benefit from fewer unusual movements in the share price, hence greater certainty with the value of our investments and greater market liquidity also.
Toyin,
I took the figure from elrico's own podcast with Stuart, but it appears from elric's post below that I have misinterpreted what was said at the link so best you listen to it yourself.
"Elric's podcast with Stuart (second Skinbiotix interview down (5th from the top) at 25 minutes in, the 25000 definitely referred to the soft launch figure and was a supply constrained target.
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236
Hi Train tracks,
Very good question. Believe the original idea was for OPTI to gain more investor exposure and hence grow the share price. However lack of "hockey stick" growth, and realisation of the costs involved may have put this on the back burner, along with the fact that the parent company is still in the red many years after investors expected them to be flying. So US investors may view the stock dimly and not worth the effort hence no action there. However lets fast forward with SBTX now getting lots of usa subscriptions, it may be worth the effort.
However my own viewpoint is that we wont need more investor exposure once product subscription starts in a short time, as MR.Market is pretty savvy and once say the first 10K subs are in and rising fast many shrewd investment experts will be searching hard for stock, so we wont need more investor support...they will come anyway, it will sell itself.
Nice to see the product axisbiotix advertised on Facebook
Here’s a thought a little off topic but quite interesting I think.
Opti always used to talk about a Nasdaq listing once they gained a sufficient foothold in the US market.
Given that Sbtx may develop a large US market for AxisBiotix, and almost certainly for the Sederma cosmetics ingredient, doesn’t this put Sbtx is a prime position to consider a listing on Nasdaq themselves.
If anyone is going to the presentations and thinks this is an interesting scenario to discuss maybe a question could be put to SA. Any thoughts?
now getting quotes again and its gone blue.
Can't seem to be able to buy currently. can still sell loads.
Hi AquaeS,
Yes SBTX is a customer of Winclove, think I've got the answer now as doing multiple runs of smaller batches to satisfy production quotas initially. Actual first order size yet to be confirmed. 2 year shelf life will really help.
Belgrano, isn't Winclove's customer Skinbiotherapeutics so as long as Skin guarantee an order the problem becomes skins if the demand is not there?
Hi belgrano
Yes, we agree. I think you are correct re the subs,as well, but I am trying remain calm and cautious!
Hi Toyin,
Think we've both on the same wave length here. I also believe subs will come in much faster than that in trying to satisfy the huge demand from the States. Expect the majority of "pre registered" people are UK based, but the main upswell of orders once things really start to shift will be from the States.
Hi belgrano
I'm not saying they would go from 25k straight to 500k, my point is they have the capacity without expansion. I would be more than happy with 5k subscriber uplift each month.
Hi Toyin,
Yes know they can possibly supply 500K before outsourcing, but there's no way they'd ever do that, before having at least a guaranteed market. Bear in mind to churn out that quantity going to tie up a hell of a lot of production which I expect is currently employed elsewhere. Not just the final blending but ingredient digesting at scale and storage. No large scale manufacturer does this, and many of the different runs I used to be involved in would have a run plan several months ahead.
belgrano, Winclove already have capacity for 500,000 subs so no outlay for equipment. Also the shelf life is at least 2 years, so no problem there either.
Good post Elrico,
Also one factor which we don't know will be the capacity of the digestors/reactors/ blenders that Winclove will be using. This will ultimately limit initial availability. Some of the industry I once worked in had almost 3 gallon glass flasks mixing up very expensive components up to some 20 ton reactors, and larger blending tanks.
Having several strains/ingredients, does pose some blending capacity issues as you cant sell it if you havnt enough of each, and no production schedules would ever allow for having facilities on standby awaiting an ingredient or two.
My thought process was that it may be Winclove that are actually calling the shots here, and that they dont intend to outlay a lot of capital (on process production equipment and product formulation and ingredients), until a certain customer subscription milestone is obtained. No good churning out 20 tons with a 12 month shelf life, say good for 50k customers, just to find it takes 9 months to achieve 25k subs.
So make enough to start with for say 10k subs, waste nothing and don't tie up larger more expensive equipment either.
If it goes well then scale up the next batch, knowing 10k are guaranteed, however this will cause sales delays (oh dressed up as .......guaranteeing supply to customers). Call me a cynic, but thats what we would do.
Which does flashback in a way to a previous post wondering if "pre-reregistering for supply might snaffle all availability".
Certainly interesting times ahead for us here.
Ref target subscriptions. This is just a target, not a prediction, without even a deadline. Any suggestion 20-30k will be the initial launch is based on investor guesswork and not based on fact. Let's not repeat the mistakes some OPTI investors have made by attempting to second guess value; history proves retail investors are usually proving themselves to be over optimistic.
I do not anticipate Axis will be delayed. SA usually delivers on his timelines. He has not missed one yet. I suspect the USA market will receive the first bulk shipment, then the UK.
A real good question to firmly nail down at the manchester meet. I intend to go. Also want to get some real meat on the bone regarding any potential "delay", in then increasing subscriptions further "while we assure continuous supply", because that's probably correct I've another theory on this one, which I also believe more.
Bit different from when well poured over statements are released, as compared to a investor asking pointed questions and not letting them side track at all.
AquaeSulis, I would question your initial supply figure, 20-30k is way to high in my opinion. I dont know where you got that figure from.
farris ffs fill yer boots.