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I agree, but now we know the possible plan I think a buyer swooping for OPTI could cause SBTX sp to jump and that could cancel out the savings they make by not coming direct so is a risk for them to consider.
Think AquaeS nailed this one with his post last Thurday, ref going for OPTI first.
Thanks Bel I see what you are saying. For every share someone has in OPTI they effectively get their 20% kickback from 2 SBTX shares. Seems too good to be true for OPTI holders! As I’m purely in Skins i obviously hope OPTI hang on to their shares for the long term, at least until we realise the true value. I know you were just giving an example, but I think a buyer would have to swoop fast to be able to do a deal at a quid!
Hi Cliostock, just my bad writing, meant they have 20 odd percent shares in SBTX, but only have issued 88M in opti verses 157M in SBTX. So say they sold them all for a quid each to Croda and lets say 20% for simplicity it would raise them 31.4M
So if SOH then did what he said he was going to do years ago but failed and give it all at as a special divi to the log suffering shareholders there it would mean a very nice 35p a share special divi. In effect just pointing out that the amount of stock a company issues has a major bearing.
Opti owns 23% of skinbio last time I checked )36,138,569 out of 156,780,236 shares in issue)
Bel, could you elaborate on saying OPTI own 21% of SBTX but own half the shares in issue? Is this to do with the class of shares or something?
Hi Giraffe,
This is just my opinion and I'm not aware of any supply issues that SBTX have currently, know container freight has surged in cost, but should not effect SBTX much currently.
However question 1 pointing as to why opti price has not risen as much as opti, I can think of two reasons.
1. Only own 21% of SBTX (but have half the shares in issue), so if price was to rise say by a quid here the effect in value of the opti stock would rise in proportion to its value increase per opti share..so less than half.
2. Market sentiment....I know personally of four investors that offloaded poorer performing OPTI shares this week in favour of ones they thought will do better over the next 12 months. Some bought into this one. This will depress prices there.
Hi, your help please. Have posted in OPTI board but you seem to stay here. Firstly, thankyou! For such quality posts, truly amazing. Am subscribed to Elrico, so up to speed with SBtX and happy here eagerly awaiting next week and beyond. However, noted your comments re OpTI share fall when products launched and wanted to know 2 things
1) why hasn’t OPTI price risen as SBTX has this week as they increase their holding
2) am also invested in OPtI, prepared to wait, but do OPTI still have the same supply issues?
Many thanks, fasten seat belts…
Remains to be seen if our greedy MM, continues to try and sell down this stock for financial advantage and then likes to brag about it. Its what quite a few of the traders do anyhow, buy on a larger scale.
It is pretty easy for them, when you have a 94M cap and zero income.
This is actually about to change in another 8 trading days, when the launch starts. One big advantage is payment is taken as soon as shipped, so same day as order placed. Will start as a trickle but will build and its not "jam tomorrow".
However thinking about the MM's actions, if it had not taken place the share price would have been in orbit now just like OPTi's was in the heady days prior to their launches. So in effect those who have been accumulating since the summer would not have paid heady amounts like that stock rose to.
With OPTI, the companies selling our products were sluggish at best to get off the mark, and company payments deferred as per contract in many ways, and then disappointed holders in quantity, which has caused loss of confidence there.
Here we have a much greater unmet need, coupled with free pinpointed marketing , so reaction should be what many of us wished for with OPTI.
Just a differing viewpoint to think about.
I keep finding that working out the numbers makes me feel like an overly optimistic bull no matter how pessimistic I set out to be. If we are lucky enough for SBTX to have gained 50k subscribers by this time next year, using a P/E of 10x and allowing for absolutely no value from Croda or any of the developmental products or other pillars we would still have a share price more than twice what it is now. I couldn’t be more at ease with my investment at this time.
Hi Fitzy,
I disagree with your second sentence, however agree that a 95M valuation demonstrates the market does expect a lot.
To answer your question exactly 20M annual earnings equates to 37,240 subscribers, or 0.045% of the currently suffering membership of the USA national psoriasis federation who are endorsing our products to their members. I believe take up will eventually be much higher.
It may be 5X earnings for a bog standard retail company as you know fully well, however for a company that's likely to see those numbers surpassed before late summer and potentially almost break even early in the new year I'd stake mr. market will look closer to 30X. That puts a completely different perspective on things doesn't it.
But if you decide to sell good luck finding better opportunity elsewhere, but tomorrow morning would be good as I like a cheap top up.
Fitzy.
I think you are a little confused here - by earnings do you mean revenue or profit ?
Stbx, or frankly any company in the market, would never be on 5x earnings valuation.
I think a 30-50 pe on forward earnings is more inn the ballpark for company with the revenue growth potential of sbtx, and more importantly how much of the revenue flows to the bottom line.
Big holder here but realistic. Put me at ease please.. 100m valuation should equate to roughly 5x earnings .. how far away are we from 20m annual earnings ?
Be honest guys as I think even with a very successful launch we are going to be a long away for the foreseeable. Is it time to drop out for a bit ..