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Oh, dear!
1. update on SkinBiotix - this has progressed enough for one to expect some forecast on revenue
Wow, it's been just four weeks since SBTX's first commercial probiotic from a standing start and Jimmy thinks the company has made enough progress to allow the company to make a revenue forecast!
What happens if not a single customer returns or they drop off after a couple of months of trialling AxisBiotix? Is this the way you expect a reputable PLC to conduct itself?
2. update on AxisBiotix-Ps - At the minimum, I would expect commentary on "clicks" to the adverts
Why, what data would this provide you? There is no guarantee any clicks will result in a subscription. I am sure they will, based on the percentage of clicks.
3. cash burn - I would expect some comment on any increase spend directed to their investigation on acne or other ailments. With £4.6m, and cash burn of approx £1.5m pa, that does not leave much time before another dilution event.
Based on the 2021 cash burn, the year they conducted the consumer study for AxisBiotix, I think you already have your answer.
Sorry, Jimmy. You are being wholly unrealistic, naive, perhaps. I am guessing you have not been investing long. That's fine, we have all been where you are. Asking what you think are reasonable questions, but commonsense should tell you they are not reasonable.
*approaching double :)
Hi Jimmy, quite simply the fundamentals are equally as strong, or more so, as they were when the market valued SBTX at double this price, and that was BEFORE they even had regulatory compliance in the US and UK for Axisbiotix!
So I believe this is a temporary dip and I believe Stuart made the right decision not to provide forecasts at point of going to market.
Unless there is a big issue with supply or demand, this will easily hit the pre-regulatory compliance price in 2022 and probably well beyond once the Croda/Sederma deal is progressed, also on schedule for commercialisation in 2022
Hi Nick, there are 3 things the management should be communicating to investors:
1. update on SkinBiotix - this has progressed enough for one to expect some forecast on revenue
2. update on AxisBiotix-Ps - At the minimum, I would expect commentary on "clicks" to the adverts
3. cash burn - I would expect some comment on any increase spend directed to their investigation on acne or other ailments. With £4.6m, and cash burn of approx £1.5m pa, that does not leave much time before another dilution event.
Flipping through the RNS, it lacks anything concrete, i.e. figures - not a single mention from mgt of either anticipated revenue or their approach to expense mgt. This vagueness is not enough to support the £85m market cap seen a few days ago and the price is collapsing accordingly.
Fair enough Jimmy, think we're agreed on the science and fundamentals, but I respectfully disagree that a company entering commercialisation with new science should be providing forecasts, in my view that would be reckless.
Nick, I also said that I would wait for an update from management. Instead, what we have received is an RNS that provides very little in guidance. I do not mind volatility as I like the science but lack of clarity is disappointing.
For some context, I invest the majority of my portfolio in companies with > $1billion in market cap - most trading on NASDAQ or NYSE. It is expected that guidance and forecasts are provided. Of course, we cannot compare a SP500 company with a £100million company but one would hope that there would not be such a stark contrast in leadership.
You said it yourself Jimmy...
'I am an investor and think it will take time (ie not going to panic)'
It's not looking great. I must admit, investing on AIM has been a learning experience. Unless Stuey provides clearer guidance on commercial opportunities, I suspect that this will go lower.
With fundamentals and an outlike like this, I think it's hit the low and will only go up from here long term.
20% down on day and barely above 40p..... will this stop before we get below 30p?