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Psoriasis association conference is on the 18th June.any of the Sbtx team attending?,
If they can, then they should, I remember Stuart saying that the psoriasis association was all over our axisbiotix product, but I don’t see any signs of this.
Belgrano writes
"I'm still in here but with a reduced holding by a factor of 5. I also still keep a very close eye on what's going on."
Its like living in a parallel universe..You could not make this stuff up!!!
Hi Cliostock,
You are most definitively correct that many investors are waiting with some pretty decent amounts waiting for positive signs from company sales. Actually doesn't have to be a great deal, but looking for a decent amount of sales growth.
I'm still in here but with a reduced holding by a factor of 5. I also still keep a very close eye on what's going on.
I totally agree, Stuart knows that another miss here will really send this south, I have faith and from the interviews Stuart is determined to make this good again.
No one knows what the end of June figures will be and what a material miss really means, however how I see it is that if the company were prepared to forecast £1.2m in mid Feb, then i cant see that it would be majorly far from that figure, 25-40% miss would be received very well IMO.
There are many upcoming events that could rocket us back to 50p+, when that time comes folk will be kicking themselves why they didnt buy more at this insane prices.
I read something yesterday that rung true to me; “Investing in the AIM isn’t about investing in the best companies, it’s about investing in what people think are the best companies.” It totally made sense with what’s happening here. We lose a bit of sentiment and the price is a third of where it was. I’d prefer a slow and steady incline over the course of the upcoming news but I do think there are a lot of people keeping a side eye on this company and when it looks like it’s going to get going like it did around the time of the bright study those people could pile back in. It all hinges on how good the next few RNS’s are.
Ok. Thanks Phat, Clio and Toy. I agree the stock has been oversold (now lower than before the BRIGHT results). And agree the high of 75p was ahead of ourselves. I hope to see 50p by end of year. Hope the points you guys said come off. cheers
58k sell this morning...that's not someone impatient moving money around to me....well unless 57k is small change to them of course
According to RNS’s, the rest of 2022 (which near enough fits this period of 3-6 months) should 1.) Bring royalty revenues from Croda, 2.) The commencement of an acne consumer study, 3.) Receive some news of the 12 month oral study led by Prof Andrew McBain which was initiated in 2021.
I think all the above happening would have the potential to put the share price back in the 50’s. Further news of better Axis sales could push it further.
Now, there is also the potential for the above to be missed, which could depress the share price further. However hearing the fire in Stuart’s belly during the post results interviews leads me to believe he won’t let this happen. His reputation is at stake here.
We still have 5 weeks of sales to go before we even get to the end of June. I would bet that Stuart and the new team will be doing what they can to minimise the ‘miss’ as we speak. For this reason I don’t think we’ll hear anything from them until after then, but there should be plenty of news to go at that could lift our SP.
Ody, the reasons are three fold.
1. The price has over reacted to the missed £1.2m.
2. Sales are growing daily and retention rate is circa 70%.
3. I believe we will see revenues from Croda this calendar year.
One could argue with hindsight we got ahead of ourselves in the 70s, one could also argue we have had an over reaction at this point in the 20s, the elastic band has been stretched too far to the downside. We also have no idea what deals/negotiations are going on in the other pillars (that's 4 reasons). For the reasons given, I also believe we will be considerably higher in 3-6 months.
Hi Ody
This part of the RNS really stands out
‘Through the course of the collaboration, Sederma continues to identify additional potential scientific and marketing claims for the end ingredient. In parallel to the manufacturing scale-up process that Croda are progressing at its facility near Widnes, Sederma is continuing its lab work to further substantiate any additional potential claims.
Croda has engaged with its VIP clients and management continues to anticipate licensed royalty revenue generation by the end of 2022’
Once validated and we know if they are any additional claims this will really enhance the possibilities of how Sederma market Skinbiotix. Croda don’t update Skinbio every week or every month for that matter and will probably only communicate when something is worth communicating.
This for me has always been the golden goose and I believe it’s only a matter of time before good news comes on this front.
No one knows the impact marketing has on sales currently but I suspect there will be an update by the end of June so that investors can quantify the word ‘material’.
Then there’s the oral research which depending on the results could lead to other revenue or collaborations as stated in the RNS.
Patience is required here, something I keep telling myself everyday but I believe in Stuart and know that this will come good as it always has. Remember the story is the same.
Hi Phat. Can you just tell us why the SP will be considerably higher in the next 3-6 months? based on what? The croda deal (gone quiet), increasing sales (from an extremely low base, will takes months if not until next year to get to the first target for March that was "materially" missed. Why do you think the SP will go higher?
I agree with Toyin and it is highly unlikely anything has leaked, it could be a distressed seller by the looks of the trades. No doubt that in the next 3-6 months we will be considerably higher
Yes I didn’t consider that possibility. Anyway, we’ll see what tomorrow brings, as I keep saying (broken record!) this can go up as quickly as it goes down.
There is always the possibility of leaks from third parties, but I would bet my house Stuart isn't leaky.
Agree Trader. It would be a real shame if we got some bad news soon, but I believe Stuart when he says “nothing leaks out of this company, it never has and it never will”, so hopefully the drop is just general market conditions. There will certainly be some questions to answer if there’s bad news tomorrow or Friday.
Yes when you are a holder it certainly rattles you to see the slow drip drop. If you are building a position it isn't all that of a disaster as you can load up with some cheap stock. The question will always be is there a bit of leaky leaky and is the leaky leaky negative news which is causing a big seller to offload in the background. Nice to see some big chunky buys coming in however the SP doesn't lie so if it is dropping then you can guarantee there is more supply than demand.
There are a few strings to this company's bow which provides different potential profitable revenue streams....I do like that set up.
Patience, patience. I’m here at least until the Croda funds start rolling in, the acne products are tested and released, the AxisBiotix-ps sales are up, the oral study is done and we hear something about the cleanbiotix and Medibiotix. I appreciate that is a lot of waiting, but I have the patience for it. We all know the price could easily be £1+ if the team play their cards right on the irons in the fire. Whether they will or not, that’s up to the opinion of the individual investor. But if the price hits 15p, 10p, 5p in the meantime, I do not care, I’ll be patient and wait.
Phat, very well said.
"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
This is definitely way overdone, I guess no news is good news, investors get bored easy and I believe this is what we are witnessing here, the company will surely update when the time is relevant, patience is key here, day by day I am sure sales from axis grow, and every week that flys by, brings us a week closer to Croda
ok this is getting a little concerning now...3-5% daily is painful to watch. Surely we must have some positive news soon?