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Stuart said at the meeting the break even point for the company was 2800 subscribers to Axisbiotix.
There was so many great little bits of information spoken about at the meet that I’ve been remembering odd bits all day and now I’ve sat down I can’t think of any. I think I’ll just post randomly as I’ve thought of them. One thing I will say though, is that I’m no longer hoping the share price pops every day, I’m hoping it stays where it is for a good while so I can accumulate a much bigger holding.
Hi Odysseus,
No talking about the pharma pillar of SBTX, takes a good few years to get to fruition . Also not on the recording as it was a private conversation after. Effectively I said if this company continues in the way its currently going in what we know now, no way will they ever get to develop the Pharma stage....Because we will take so much of the cake, big pharma will be looking for us..lock, stock, barrel. All present (please dont ask ) agreed.
Bit of light listening. https://www.dropbox.com/s/a3u3ddd4iilb5w3/sBTX.aac?dl=0
Winclove’s turnover seems to be around $22m or £16m.
It’s impossible to know how much product has already been produced for Sbtx but it’s incredible that we are their second largest customer BEFORE launch.
Thanks belgrano for sharing this and thanks also to elrico for the sterling work.
You implying belgrano that Big Pharma (iw ork in Big Pharma) would fund some clinical trials/take an interest and potentially buy if all positive? i.e. partially fund trials/get % stake and maybe buy? That would be great for the SP, but also would mean we would miss this getting to £5 if they bought early
A lifelong investor friend joined mr at the meeting last night, Stuart and the board where all clearly brimming with expectation and it was our joint opinion that they clearly know we are onto something big.
Stuart commented that he believes that had our study this year been a more controlled one, the percentage of positive results would have been even higher than the 72% reported as more investigation would have been done to make sure sufferers were actually suffering from psoriasis and not other similar conditions.
Our opinion is that the company is planning a very soft launch indeed , to test supply lines first, however its being set up so as those lines can be increasing significantly when the time is right.
Subscription will be fully automated online, (No needing to speak to anyone)..supply 2 months at a time to reduce postage but still be within size limits.
Sederma /Croda all to plan no issues there.
Just one small one because its been bugging me for a while, Talk turned to who has been selling down the stock here. Believe one market maker told Stuart (and annoyed him considerably), that hes been making millions selling down this stock. No other info on that yet.
One thing I do know, SBTX will never develop a pharma route if things continue as planned, because outside interest will get too strong. (Big pharma).
Can I first thank Elrico for arranging he whole Q and A session last night. I know he took no fee, and has asked for those attending to share their thoughts and the replies to everyone on here because it demonstrates there is no hiding behind any paywall. I 've several take aways from the meeting, and happy to share my thoughts.
One of my main concerns in us becoming a very successful company, was being able to obtain enough stock to supply subscribers. Having spent time working in the speciality chemical industry I know that product runs are often scheduled several months in advance, so although we know there is a huge demand we might not be able to supply enough customers
..Those fears have proved unfounded.
The company clearly now have an agreement not to release any figures regarding subscription numbers until an appropriate time. However Stuart did say numbers are still growing all the time but emphasis has now switched to the USA customers asking for product. The NPF will endorse our products especially as we approach launch day on the 29th. so expecting another surge.
I pressed Stuart on the need for investor/company alignment on plans and subscription numbers, and that's when he said "We are currently Wincloves 2nd biggest customer in product, and highly likely to become the biggest soon".
Well investors next to gasped, someone said "what", and Stuart repeated his clearly pre-arranged reply. Everyone in the room appreciated the significance of that bombshell.
So putting that into context (we can check Winclove customer order sizes later), they must have turned a good proportion of their production line around into producing and stockpiling some pretty serious amounts of product.
Fits in with why we have a large warehouse, Fed ex will do delivery of USA product, trial postings are already happening to base test delivery service, which is being done local to the warehouse by a company used to doing large quantities.
Why would Winclove do this now......huge outlay in time, materials. and expertise......and I'll have a bet with anyone that they also have seen the demand figs for supply.
The link is on my Twitter feed. LSE is removing my links now. I guess the Victor Meldrews are reporting me. I will make them wait even longer now if they get access at all.
Shortly. I will have something ready for the weekend.
Thanks cliostock for taking the time to update us.
The subscription numbers have become somewhat of an obsession, for me anyway. Whilst i'm keen to know sales quickly, it's helpful to at least have an expectation now that updates are equally likely to be post-christmas as they pre. Having a clear expectation and timeline about sales figures is very welcome.
The Winclove update is quite impressive, I had no idea! I wondered if the 'beauty parade' was mentioned? Timelines and process beyond the beauty parade for example?
Thanks again. Look forward to more updates if people are happy to share!
Thanks for the summary. Most helpful. Did SA say anything further about Croda progress? I’m also assuming that everything is still on for the soft launch at the end of this month?
No problem. Lots more was discussed and I’m sure lots more information will be posted tomorrow. Nothing specifically new or groundbreaking, but I would say there was lots of positive clarification on points we already knew about. I’m confident of a very successful upcoming few years for skins.
Thanks cliostock, much appreciated
I might be one of the first home so I’ll post briefly to put you out of your misery!
Investor meet was good. First thing I’ll say is that Stuart and the team were very strict on not revealing anything price sensitive and refused questions of which the answers would break rules…
Stuart, Doug and Geoff are clearly committed, professional and know the business inside out. I’m very impressed with their unshakeable knowledge of their market and the size of the opportunities they have identified within it.
Below are some key points that I took away…
We are already Winclove’s second largest customer. Think about that one for a minute.
There will be no subscriber numbers revealed until the nomads are happy that the number is an accurate representation of the sales moving forward. It is only 50/50 that we will get any before Christmas. The company are keen to reveal the numbers as soon as they can but it’s out of their hands, we have to wait for the go ahead.
Stuart practically pulled apart some of the points various trolls make about the company. Our technology is ours, safely protected and incredibly hard to replicate.
There is a road map in place for products specialising in Acne, Dermatitis and others.
The new recruit Geoff was exclusively speaking about the hair care industry. He has previously worked within L’Oréal and Toni and Guy as well as his shampoo heads and has retail contacts in Australia, South Africa amongst 16 countries. It was blindingly obvious he is there for his experience in the hair care market, read into that what you will, I have.
I’m sure the other chaps that attended will come along with loads more points. A lot gets said in 2 hours when there is only a small group attending. Some were probing with their questions and no chink in the armour was revealed.
Come on guys; put your pints down, and tell us about the investor meet
Cliostock,
A great example of reading and digesting an RNS.
Apologies if that comment comes over as condescending, it is not intended so. I think your view is remarkably perceptive.
good spot Cliostock,
You are quite correct I believe in your analysis of the numbers. However from just an e-mail address it does take a lot of time to sign up subscribers, because as its due to the customer, calls tend to flood in at peak periods . Thinking through the logistics it can be quite a task, hence the soft start. I've no doubt that in 18 months we could be looking at some startling numbers but we currently have none. Also I believe we will have some recycling to do as some find it does not work for them, and that will give others an opportunity, could easily be 50%, so a lot of work.
Noticed another bit of wording in the last RNS that provides another support to the theory that numbers of interest registrations are high:
“Sales of the product will be restricted initially to a limited number of customers from the pre-registration list to ensure a robust and reliable supply chain. Thereafter access to the eCommerce website will be opened up on a broader basis to the remainder of the waiting list and the wider psoriatic population.”
“The remainder of the waiting list” . I don’t think the company would have had any reason to word the paragraph in such a way if their number hadn’t already been topped.
Now we don’t know what the number is that the company has in mind for the soft launch, but this statement adds weight to the theory that the number has been surpassed. And this statement was published 30th September.
Of course Stuart saying sign ups continue at an alarming rate is a pretty big whopper of a clue, but for me re-reading that part of the RNS has been positive.
Posted below on the ADVFN forum,
Looking forward to the forthcoming meeting this Thursday, and meeting a few of the long term investors here...Who's coming.
One thing that's just struck me after seeing the new words on the SBTX website as
"To register your interest in buying Axis Biotix and to have the best chance of being in the initial wave of product sales click below".
Clearly if subscription rates keep up, there will be a waiting list for product.
So if my fag packet calcs are correct SBTX will move into company profitability going forward by Christmas. (Clearly not in annualised reports). That will make me very happy on Thursday indeed, and a great question without giving detailed info away.
Might make SOH choke a bit with that stunning performance, but will make my Christmas. Launch to profitability in under 2 months...that will certainly get the focused attention of the institutional investors.
A good spot is that Belgrano, I’m sure that hasn’t been there for long and is worded differently to the last time I looked.
Clearly sales are key and if we look at the company website.
https://www.skinbiotherapeutics.com/
But is this a change, actual wording indicating that they could be oversubscribed. I havn't actually noticed that before, unless anyone else had.
Pre-Launch Registration
"To register your interest in buying AxisBiotix-Ps™ and to have the best chance of being in the initial wave of product sales please click below."
Now we can conservatively estimate company income in a years time if things continue as now to plan and just include straight line sales growth rather than accelerated once NPF psoriasis forum feedback starts in earnest.
Know planning a soft launch ending in 6 months target reportedly 25K, which sounds very reasonable to me. Then another 25K in the next six months taking up to OCT. Margins calculated at 70% , and company has low running costs, and accounting nothing from Croda /Sederma returns. Using clacs as 28 doses a month, at known costs.
So in April income 8.82M, October 17.64M....which if sustained is 10p/share, after current costs.
The Croda deal or update could arrive any day so the price will come back up. The potential for the Croda deal could well be more than the subscriptions at the start. Lots to look forward to here.
Come on 29th October. Not that I want to wish my life away.