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As I read your posts I had echoes of one of Stuart's comments at the recent investors meeting, when he semi-jested 'hopefully we'll be a FTSE100 company by then...' or words to that effect!
True elrico but it only takes a post acquisition strategic review to remove any baggage which let's face it is more Fortnum & Mason quality baggage than LIDL baggage (such as the one currently underway at CRODA)
https://www.croda.com/en-gb/news/2021/05/strategic-review-of-performance-technologies-and-industrial-chemicals-businesses
I see your logic, and it does make sense. However, corp M&A tend to like simple, clean, lean companies not complicated with baggage.
Belgrano,
Croda acquired Sederma in 1995 for $65m to get their hands on Matrixl. I share your concerns over Croda buying SkinBiotix. However, I am very confident the team know its worth, and therefore would not be a seller without a significant premium. The only other option would be to acquire the 21% from OPTI and stake build for a hostile. Even so, I feel we are years away from that concern. I am sure will be be at multiples of where the SP today as well, on the lysate alone.
Well if Croda was serious about acquiring Skinbio then as a starter for ten they would be better off acquiring Opti en bloc with its £41M MC obtaining 21% of Skinbio in the process for a paltry £8.2M + premium instead of the ££19.6M plus premium acquiring them direct as a prelude to a full takeover of Skinbio. They could then of course divest themselves of the non-core Opti assets to further offset any final price they pay for Skinbio
Certainly not enough in my book, actually think the "weak hands" might be SOH, but hope I'm wrong on this, as I know he feels his last company went far to cheaply.
Cant speculate over price, but I know at least 1% of the company is not up for sale. However there are certain triggers which might cause this and that is feedback from the beauty parade. Its well known that there might be a scramble to obtain the latest breakthrough product on the skincare market, if this happens we will be in deep trouble as our psoriasis treatments could easily be sold for a huge premium, or everyone absorbed into Croda with the normal takeover payroll and perk sweeteners, as current employee numbers are miniscule and everyone is highly skilled at what we are developing. If I was participating on the Croda board right now I certainly wouldn't dismiss this juicy opportunity.
Understand where your coming from Belgrano, I wonder what price a potential takeover would attract?
Believe Croda are a brilliant partner to have, as long as they don't love us too much as I believe its a real danger. We know who might part with 21%, if it was attractive enough.
History shows its happened recently with them.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CRDA/croda-completes-acquisition-of-parfex-1c3cpnkv25zzyo2.html
I want our launch next week to get away first, as I believe it will add real concrete value to this company, and I'm very happy with my slide rule calcs which i believe will be instrumental in a share price increase come late spring. Do feel we may be a little vulnerable in the interim, as I want this company to grow its potential.
Keep an eye on Croda RNS's.
I would say the launch Rafboy, loads of investors like this stock, however from the end of the study RNS till start of launch, we've had a clear good few months of nothing. So many moved away in the interim, not because they disliked the share, but thought maybe they could invest elsewhere in the interim and possible re-purchase cheaper as well.
This is them coming back on board. Bet we see new posters or old faces returning before long as well.
I’ve also noticed Croda edging up nicely since the 12th after a big dip on Sep23.
Share price going up in anticipation of the launch on the 29th or something else I wonder?
As Croda are the main customer behind the early Nov event, you can bet they are really wetten the appetite of those going with the announcements of the latest breakthrough in skin cream with our lysate.
They put a fortune into the Matrixyl range (think I saw 52M), and now a superior product in ours has arrived with much better accreditation. These top of the range beauty product manufacturers are always seeking the next thing, and our lysate in dermatology terms is in fact a medical breakthrough but being released to the easiest market.
I think you are correct and the two are separate, all bodes well though.
Hi Raf, I think that answers the question, the 'beauty parade' is not the open supplier and buyer event in LA that you posted the link for, it's an 'invite only' event for Croda's top clients.
This is why I'm excited about it, Croda's top clients will have tremendous volumes of customers and will be getting exclusive access to a product with proven science - gold dust in the cosmetics world!
Thanks Elric, yes to me that's private because it's only available to the select few strategic clients that Croda invites.
How is it a private event? It is not as though any of the clients are selling exclusively to a preselected closed group. I think you need to define what a private event mean to you?
Thanks for explaining your understanding Elric. Still a little confused though, surely it's a private event if only a select few VIP clients are invited?
Nick,
If you apply reasonable logic, you should draw the conclusion 10-12 VIP from 12,000 plus Sederma clients is a strategic move by Croda.
Croda invested c$65 million in 1995 purchasing Sederma, Croda does not want to trash this investment overnight. Even so, the 12 are likely to be some of the biggest, and most important clients of Sederma - first-mover advantage, hence "premium royalties" which are double-digit. Each of these VIP has sales in the millions, this is not a private event. This is Croda's version of a soft launch, the wider market get access later in 2022.
Farris,
Subscriptions will be posted from Holland via airmail. Further down the line, SBTX expects to set up local distribution hubs as and when they are confident the subscription levels support the cost. I have no doubt the first will be in the USA because https://www.psoriasis.org/ will no doubt with a PR push to support the launch on the 29th.
Hi raf - SA mentions it in one of the lemming interviews (link below) towards the end, Sederma (Croda's comsmetics ingredients arm) will be 'bringing their top 10-12 customers in to give them exclusive access' ahead of offering to all of their customers in 2022.
To me that suggests a private event, but I could be missinderstanding?
Does anyone know how axisbiotix is going to be distributed to customers who have registered, i registered at the beginning, will they contact me with regards to taking up subscription?
For me I view this forthcoming launch similar to the launch of when mobile i phones starting coming out in mass production.
Its not a few pills for £1.50 a day, its £500 a year or the same as I paid for my mobile.
Nothing much like it on the market so like the phones demand is high.
Margins are also high as most of the expense was in development.
Also its cash equivalent is like a upgrade every year...for life.
And when word gets around every sufferer will want in.
Remember what happened to the companies that make them?
Thanks for sharing raf. My understanding is that the 'beauty parade' is a private showcase for SBTX in front of twelve of Croda's key clients. Although I may have read between lines!!
Can one of our more informed BB colleagues help??