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My best mate the African Matchbox seller, has just found out that the huge 6M strong jungle tribe just over the pond cannot make fire, and wants to start posting boxes of matches to all of them. He's found a huge tent and has asked all his current tribe to start making matches for them. They wouldn't do anything at first under he showed them the size of his order book, and now they have turned over nearly all their normal work into making matches. He actually wont tell me how many have signed up until he manages to get his regular orders in and grab his market share. Well he wants a soft start to make sure everything floats across the pond to the right people so he says his best mate the packager and poster cannot handle more than 10 orders a day to start with but promises to increase at 5% daily if everything goes well. Everyone must undertake to always buy or subscribe from him. Well running those calcs......week 1....55boxes, month 1...... 335boxes. However month 2 say by christmas 1015 boxes on top of the first 335. Month 3..... 1750 boxes, so now 3100 boxes total. Those match boxes are dear as there's nothing else like it on the market, and he charges £535.7 a year or 1.5M per 2,800 customers. Blinking heck, end of Jan hes looking at 1.660 M a year turnover and hes margins are very good.. (good job hes recycling the packaging and contents) and now word has got round that 3k can make fire over there and the rest of em want matches now.
I have quite a large holding in OPTI and, with their exposure to SBTX, I haven't taken any shares directly. I am now at the stage where I will now do so. The scalability of the business, margin, bottom line and cash potential seem too good at the current share price - happy the BOD seem to be taking things a little slow on the launch to ensure customer service is first class, nothing worse than back office / operational issues which soon get around on social media / trustpilot / various boards.
I'd like to add my thanks to elrico for organising and making the meeting recording available to all so swiftly and to Stuart, Doug and Geoff for being so generous with their time with the private investor community. Listening to the recording whilst grouting my Bathroom Floor last night turned an onerous chore into an enjoyable 2 hrs. Key points for me included Stuart's excitement now that "boxes of axisbiotix are racked up high in a warehouse" which shows the caution over the soft launch is prompted primarily by the global distribution volatility issues rather than demand and manufacturing concerns. To that end, the psoriasis community need to act as intelligent customers and allow enough safety stock to guard against stockouts. Re-reading the Bright Study personal testimonies, it is apparent that whilst 56 days has been used as the end point for measuring the effectiveness of the treatment, at the end of 28 days, sufficient evidence will exist for those 70% whose condition has responded to the treatment. Consequently, I suspect those selected for the initial tranche will commit to a 2 mth initial supply, with re-demands occurring from those noticing a difference at 28 days placing repeat orders for a further 1 months supply once they are down to 1 months stock in the home to safeguard against any distribution delays. The Company will then start to build up a fair idea of the likely Customer retention rate, actual distribution volatility by regions, and be able to make more informed decisions about future ramp up. On the Croda skinbiotix front, the "just a sprinkle" of the lysate ingredient required per end product puts into perspective how far the 20,000 litres initial scale-up will go. As others have said, exciting times.
Very rare indeed is an opportunity such as this, even my lifelong friend and serious private investor who accompanied me has already purchased additional stock today stock and believe me hes a reallys shrewd investor of the highest calibre.
Know I'm going to wake up tomorrow and say "oh ****", however we are a totally open and honest forum.
Just going to throw something else into the mix now, and I'm going to be honest and say I've only just realised it, but come Monday I promise i'll be acting on it. It continues from an early post of mine where we know a unknown big player has been trying to sell this stock down since the results RNS. Stuarts bombshell that Winclove were in effect churning out our product like no tomorrow was clearly pre arranged and we had three management members there to support him. However please look at shortly after, at 1:15 when we discussed who's been selling our stock down to gain profit. Stuart was not over enamoured (a close friend thought he wanted to punch his lights out) when he had a bragging MM boasting that hes "made millions out of us" , however those actions have us now at quite a false price low since the last results RNS, and I think he wants this deliberate sell down of company stock to stop, by releasing the Winclove information.
What a fascinating listen, good old fashioned blokes down the pub having a natter. Some really usefull information and snippets that would never be in an RNS but convey so much confidence. And as one chap can be heard saying - he might just sell all his other stock to pile into Sbtx. Came away almost astounded as to what is coming, and I feel like this "weeks old debate" about how many people have already signed up to the Axisbiotix site will be surpassed by a long way. Well done Elrico, you could sell this one podcast alone for your subscription rate and it would still be cheap! Regards
I can echo that sentiment moorlander, been closely tracking what we require to multibag from here with a 100M cap company with currently zero income. Defo on track, and so extremely pleased. Seems Winclove also know it as well, as they are pulling out all the stops.
Many thanks to Elrico for arranging the meeting and full respect to Stuart and his team for giving their time and an engrossing 2 hours. My take away from the meeting was that our investments are in extremely capable hands. I and a couple of other doubters in the room were thinking and saying if it sounds too good to be true then it usually is not true. The answers give me the belief that this is the exception. I am going to have to exit some higher risk positions and reinvest them in Skin as I am now completely convinced. This is not ramping but merely an expression of my excitement in this company's prospects.