We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
i would like to think so yeah, putin has said he is willing to take a 15% cut. What i am really looking for is input off people on here on the effect you think an opec deal would have on SAVP
Loki, are you assuming Opec+ is a done deal as i am not so sure and if done will it be enough ?
Hands up whos expecting this to hit 11p after opec deal is done?
Always be a pessimist on AIM if it can go wrong it will go wrong. Optimism on AIM is suicide believe me I know through 15 years of experience. Also in investing on fundamentals is now out of the window. Best go into a casino and place on red or black at least you know the odds they dont change mid spin. Anyway happy birthday to anyone who has their happy day this week
I think there will be a Q1 update any day now, I wouldnt right of Niger either for 2020.
Niceto
You say
eg Paul Curtis wrote ''The next RNS will state that the Guarantee now invoked. Clearly a very delicate matter and SAVP can’t give any update now - the only question we will be asking is are you being paid for the gas.''
The context was that SAVP confirmed that invoking the Guarantee was a notifiable event. Hence, they clearly hadn’t invoked it
My concern was/is that with oil price so so low, Nigeria unable to pay for its gas. Hence no RNS’s because not being paid and therefore next RNS would be invoking Guarantee. Hope I’m wrong. Finals end of May when all must be revealed
If that’s the case you can be open and inform shareholders who I believe are seasoned enough to understand and also concede that when you invest in Africa delayed payment is always a possibility. Add in the current coronavirus battle in Nigeria and most would understand. GENL and GKP manage to handle comms with regards to payment delays and don’t hide material info. The IR team at SAVP need to grow up as does the BOD communication strategy.
We're all but a function of our environment. And while I'm of course annoyed with lack of updates generally here the only defence I'd make of AK is that he is doing business in a country where the rules are very different is most very way to what we generally are used to (eg transparency/fairness is a long long way from what we understand as normal).. An environment where who you know/are liked by and playing by their rules is far more the only option then we might generally get .. so when it comes to invoking guarantees versus affecting country credit ratings for eg or getting paid in due course as opposed to now because senior enough people will make sure it happens eventually, one way or other, if you play the game as they define the rules ..etc.. you've got to, in the end, be patient and hope it goes well over the piece (or just up and bet elsewhere instead)
THIS IS NIGERIA (and Niger, but that's somewhat an aside for now) and the President himself pushed this deal through RELATIVELY early versus others don't forget.
Hi. Most of those posting on that forum will be speculating for a lift in price of oil. Personally I don't care too much. Oil will not stay at its level for very long. The cure for low prices is low prices it's just how long? Saudi Arabia/Russia will be hurting just not as much as US shale or higher cost producers. 10m cut that Trump is proposing won't touch the sides from short term demand destruction and I can never see a situation when US will restrict oil supply it's against their very principle of free markets. My personal view is that there might be a cut but the market would be disappointed. However I wouldn't be surprised to see significant improvement in oil price when things settle down in H2 and demand rises when shale producers have curtailed production due to the economics as they need >50$ oil. I like SAVP gas business which is why I am here with Niger upside (latter will have to wait)
Great synopsis LC. I still wonder if they had kept to plan and delivered the Niger drill campaign and resource numbers from the successful drill how we would have performed. To some extent we have all LTH have been robbed By the switch play over to the strategic accugas play. I’ve no idea how this will play out but based on annual salary AK is underperforming and a lightweight at anything other than raising money.
I totally get that. I think I bought in 20s firstly current average 14. It's my largest holding % terms. It's the only meaningful share I've topped up on from oil and gas sector in AIM added a bit PPC. I've added a lot of bigger dividend companies, met coal, shipping, agriculture, base metaland gas (Canada) but all NYSE TSX companies with bigger MC. I'm not expecting anything from OPEC + so we might see some weakness and have a bit of cash to add if we see a drop. Good luck with all your investments - better times will come
This might be a dumb question but i am new to this so cut me some slack, are we expecting a good outcome of tomorrows opec meeting to boost the share price of savannah? Reason i ask is i also have shares in tullow and all the chat on the forum for that stock is high hopes for the opec meeting but it hasnt been mentioned in here so wasnt sure if i was missing out on something?
CJ if there are any issues you will be extremely angry. Having lost a huge amount due to the market crash I could not afford to give them the benefit of the doubt and sold. Also as I have stated previously I think that the market will fall further as the economic impacts become clear so overall I am not tempted to buy back in yet. I topped up heavily late last year at 20p and held so much hope for this year. That's life flying high in April shot down in may .Its always the risks you do not see coming that get you. We all knew the market can crash but did not expect a virus to trigger it.
Hi. That's right. Finally heard back from IR on 31st (after chasing up). Mainly my query about the article (in Dec) that had some people, including myself worried and concerned about payments that many of us had. Her response wa the article was "unfounded". Comment regarding payment guarantees exact wording "have never had to call on it". My assumption therefore is we are being paid. Of course does it mean we are being paid in full? Well the answer wasn't specific nor did I ask are we being paid in full. Many posters clearly have doubts and given selling pressure I'm not surprised. I would assume that if there were issues than they are duty bound to release this material information. I would agree that a RNS would help allay fears. I guess if it's business as usual no RNS is needed. I'm justifying the drop as bond holders selling, sentiment and being punished for debt. If it turns out there are issues with payment I'll be extremely angry.
I am not sure what the ratio is between Institutional and retail investors in SAVP. I recall it being roughly 70/30. Maybe A.K views the institutions as his priority to keep informed. Absolutely no excuse for this conduct if true.
As tradeemup stated, alot of investors have been through suspensions / 7deal delays etc. I thought after the wait to complete the 7 deal, A.K would have be been ' right, thanks for being patient, here's the Submission doc / debt refinance / Niger update '. Not on day of completion, but within a 1 / 2 month time frame.
Its a shame because this is a company that is supplying possibly over 10% of Gas to the largest economy in Africa. Sometimes you have to question are the management at SAVP up to the job ?
It would be interesting to get the views of some of the Institutions invested.
Agreed NtoM. I am not a naive investor and accept investment decisions are my own. However we have all been through an extremely lengthy suspension period and waited an age for the complex Seven deal to close. Surely management should understand this and believe the current COVID pandemic and macro environment warrants an update of the asset acquired and that PAYMENTS are being RECEIVED, with the additional context of whether guarantees are being Invoked. Perhaps AK prefers to update ii’s but is not bothered with the average PI. It’s shocking.
by any remotely fair and reasonable definition.
And what further annoys me is that in this ongoing information vacuum very mixed messages from quality posters on this BB are occurring; perhaps by sources close to the company, perhaps not?
eg Sankeys wrote nearly a month ago now: ''but I do think:know Savp revenue payments are coming in and you will get an update in Q1.''
Care to comment further on this now please Sankeys?
eg Paul Curtis wrote ''The next RNS will state that the Guarantee now invoked. Clearly a very delicate matter and SAVP can’t give any update now - the only question we will be asking is are you being paid for the gas.''
Yet CJGoldsmith has very recently posted ''Heard back from Sally last week they haven't had call on the guarantees in place for either Calabar or Unichem''
Care to comment further on this now please Paul?
I am a patient guy and involved in a lot of AIM stocks and BB's and offer that even by comparison across the AIM CESSPIT, communications from SAVP to PI's are altogether somewhere between very bad and awful. (not disgraceful imho granted, as that's such a low bar on AIM, as witnessed by some of the occurrences in the field of AIM Investor communications or lack of being jail worthy, which I very much hope will never be the case for SAVP)
I’ve also been averaging down. I think the long term outlook could be very positive. However management need to communicate with shareholders.
just bought another 33,173 shares topping me up to 100k shares.....fingers crossed huh
2 trades yesterday and 4 today? I think the sooner SAVP can shed some light on receivables the better. Won’t hold my breath
Zen, I referenced the gas price as it should have an effect on sentiment if nothing else. I am aware of the fixed pricing but the gas price will have relevance to any new customers we aquire.
Zengas. Surely the big doubt is over whether payments are being received promptly and this is impacting current SP. Would you not agree that with this being the case a company update is warranted? Or once shareholders purchase stock is the presumption we are life long holders. AK is aware of the drag caused by the uncertainty with with the onset of COVID across Africa would be very easy to remove. Company treats shareholders with disdain ! There is no excuse
It's possible the tweets were not intended as any update for actual investors at all.
Yesterday was world health day but on top of that Nigeria just in the last week has seen less power generation and a lot of it blamed on lack of gas delivered to the generating companies. Also on 2nd April Nigeria issued notices to reduce staff at oil/gas installations as the country is in lock down.
Therefore the tweets may be more aimed at reassuring the public/business in Nigeria that Savp are unaffected and as stated have been increasing gas supplies essential for power generation while taking all steps to protect its staff at the same time.
Totally agree with snaffleman. We are in the midst of a global pandemic and the virus has reached Nigeria. The lack of update despite the tweeting with regards to increased offtake is baffling. I used to feel AK was a credible CEO but increasingly find myself doubting his aptitude and credentials to do anything but raise money with institutions. The company appear to treat all PIs with disdain and given Mcap vs projected FCF an update of payments is the very least we should expect. I suspect it’s not positive news!!!
longshorttrade, Gas prices on Savps contracts are fixed long term and generally escalate .
Calabar 2019 $3.53 mcf increasing in steps to $5.04 mcf by 2024 and indexed to US PPI.
Unicem all years $5.0 mcf.
Ibom 2019 $2.18 mcf and escalated with US CPI.
Ifam new customer for Q2 ??