Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
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US to not export? No massive loss for them as shale was about to start dropping off from next year. Excess for now can go into SPR.
Opec plus to maintain 3m bopd till April 2021
Then they need to drop another 5m for rest of year.
They cannot let the situation ride and watch ME and Africa plunge into a double headed crisis that will result in the rise of Islamic uprising and more.
But even if the shale oil assets of gazillions of smaller players is acquired by US consolidators, surely the wells will be placed on hold as there is no economic scenario where it will be profitable to pump. The longer this is delayed, the greater the pain for the US energy industry. And for developing nations, as well.
No point wiping out Shale because you will simply wipe out the debt, the assets will be restructured via D4E or purchased by larger oil company.
This applies in general to the sector - I bought EnQuest bonds yesterday at 24p. I hoping worst case is a D4E.
Russia is better off leaving the walking wounded struggle on, handicapped by their debt.
I was expecting cuts by now, everyone can see the precipice ahead as storage runs out. Cuts are needed pretty soon to at least slow the rise in storage, buying more time for economic recovery. The cuts must still be of such magnitude that will need G20 on board. I’m assuming we are in a game of poker and of the three principle players, Putin is the best player with the best hand
So those oil hale companies go bust and new leaner and fitter ones take their place with ex managers as CEO's. The banks have to take a hit and one or two of them go under and are replaced by the fitter banks who did due diligence.
Trump doesn't want this as jobs and businesses are lost and he needs the economy to be doing well for his re-election - this is all he cares about and has influenced every tweet, action and lie he has put out there since the Covid-19 outbreak began. he has appealed to Saudi Arabia to 'do the right thing' - the right thing for who exactly? He now wants to work with Russia to get the oil price up. US oil shale is the main reason for an over supply of oil - I think Russia and Saudi Arabia would do well to rub the US industry into the dust - 6 months of pain for 3 to 5 years of control.
I had a brief look over Seplats results. Ratio of about 50-50 oil/gas production so no doubt the fall off in oil prices will affect them but to date i don't think there's been any issues in getting paid for their gas.
I would expect with budgets undermined, the IMF or World Bank will have to lend support to some countries and i would think that would mean Nigeria paying it's bills for critical utililites such as electricity.
We need to see if there is any effect on adding new higher margin gas customers right now or delay ?
People working from home have said with intermittment power, means the reason for doing so defeats that purpose so power is paramount.
With CV-19 shutdowns the cement factory could maybe call force majeure for a time if it was affected (contract clauses) ?
New/existing power stations - have to be fed from somewhere - recent deal with Afam was to start Q2. I'm hoping therefore that new power station customers balance out any unforseen problems or potential cashflow shortfall.
We are less reliant on Nigeria oil price as we have only small production versus gas.
Niger will undoubtedly be delayed imo. Could always get some kind of farmout but imo no rush or need nor imo expectation to restart operations even if they could in this low oil price and cv restrictions.
....except that it has huge debt repayments coming due starting any time now, just when the junk bond market is dead.
The one good thing at the moment for businesses is that they will be able to have really low energy bills once this is over. In order to save the US oil industry Trump would inflate the oil price in the USA only and handicap their manufacturing - another case of nothing being so bad that a politician can't make it worse. The US oil shale business will do what it did last time - stop drilling and wait.
Can Nigeria afford to pay for it’s gas with Brent at $22 and in midst of Covid crisis.
Only option is to trigger the World Bank guarantee but at same time maintain political goodwill - Nigeria can not be blamed/down rated when everyone in the same boat.
Hence are SAVP processing this? The next RNS will state that the Guarantee now invoked. Clearly a very delicate matter and SAVP can’t give any update now - the only question we will be asking is are you being paid for the gas.
Nigeria has obviously been mothballed until international travel resumed and oil price crisis resolved - my guess is that, in view of the size of the cuts required, Russia and Saudis believe that the G20 producers must also be involved. Hence they are waiting until all parties desperate enough to sign up. Don’t know how the USA will contribute but they will. Whatever they do will involve throwing the rule book out the window.
I thought Sailplane’s Oilprice link offered a fascinating solution for the USA although would result in a trade war...?
yep, silence here beyond belief from the savp management!
End of quarter update is what has been touched on in post(s) here as a decent possibility and might well now be the Co's plan.. so next week at earliest for that.
And the longer they wait the more clarity they'll have on what's happening on the ground and what their revised operational plans are and any reworking of finances in light of CoVid 19 etc.
This is a very important update and I'd rather them take their time and be comprehensive in that update. ( and hopefully find/offer BOTTOM LINE TANGIBLE positivity too of course )
Again everybody’s up and we’re down.
What is this company doing exactly. Are they all on holiday or something. Presume no point calling as no one’s at the office.
Where is this ‘rns soon’ they kept saying in their email replies to some of the posters here?
I am expecting Niger operations to be postponed and possible payment issues in Nigeria. Hopefully those scenarios are already priced in. Once the virus retreats savp could be a great recovery play particularly if the Saudi Russian spat gets resolved
As if the company is determined to drag the sp lower and lower by saying nothing. Please management no news is seen as bad news.
Once again everyone else goes up apart from us.
So quiet for days have most of the regulars here sold out or what.
Keep safe everyone. Went grocery shopping yesterday around 5pm, it was calm and plenty of stuff available. Looks like finally panic buy has ended.
If this company actually exists. Communication, nil pointe!