Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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There are probably numerous people have said do 99% of the time do nothing. One is Morgan Housel who said
"My basic idea is 99% of investing is doing nothing, 1% will change your life, and that 1% is the only visible part so it’s all we talk about."
see https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/making-history-by-doing-nothing/
O&W Ever had that feeling when you know a name but it won't come out? It wasn't Jessie Livermore but can't force my brain to tell me! A google search doesn't help so he can't be that famous.
Jessie Livermore?
NicetoMichu Thanks for your excellent post. I too have been thinking about AK's comments on it being retail PI's. Whilst technically he may be correct he should look at the trading in the weeks running up to 7E closure and strong PI buying. Larger market players have access to teams with more expertise than I have and PI's I suspect have been played here. This can happen in the short-term. Sometimes best to invest, keep researching and wait. Can't recall the name but a famous New York investor said that when asked his advice was 99% of the time to do nothing. AIM has become a bit frantic and it is harder and harder to do nothing. Quick profits over a period of a few weeks just are not a sensible approach to investing. GLA
fine posting here today thanks and mcb is/has been another top poster here imho.
Mount Teide post interests me a lot too. The workings of AIM in terms of II - including Hedge funds a lot more than people think- MM's plays, and PI's plays are more and more important to have a view on too imho. And macro views are very important too.. eg PoO Brent is forecast by EIA to average $60 pb in 2020. Even including recent weakness it will likely average around $65 in 2019.... so I bet shed loads of II's are further bearish this sector and, while they certainly don't have to and hopefully don't, of course things can get worse for the sector, hard as that my be to take/comprehend for many. That said - and as mentioned already here -there are always winner stocks whatever, so lets hope this is one !
There are fine sector technical understandings and specific stock detail understandings on the good boards on LSE but it's pretty rare they get married well with understandings on the workings- read manipulations a lot for workings - of AIM imho. eg Amerisur board had plenty of 'brilliant' posters and they were almost all very wrong on their s/p views. Ditto here recently and ditto elsewhere widely ( remember more or less, the only PI's left playing long the AIM O&G space are Oil bulls.. so any balance, could be more balanced again if uber bears posted widely too.. and they don't really.)
PS: when Mr Knott says that recent weakness is nervous or 'day tradery' type PI's fault, I think to an extent sure, but maybe it's more complicated than that. For eg even shares that have no sale tie in periods might have derivatives created alongside by sophisticated hedge funds that results on underlying sales occurring by some Institution somewhere very soon after those shares are issued. And institutional algorithms can then read a sign to sell down further off the back etc. Also MM can take out stop losses very manipulatively, particularly in lower volume situations. And falling s/p can force people playing long on margin out too by default, who are far from nervous PI's ( takes far more b*lls to play on margin than with own cash...I wouldn't do it in a million years on the AIM cesspit )
Most Hedge Funds are medium distance and marathon runners while PI's are largely sprinters.
Many PI's will have stampeded in here on expectation of a mark up on notification of completion of the 7E deal - the hedge funds of course know this and so crafted a ruse to use the liquidity generated by the completion RNS, to work with any larger holders lightening up, to push the price down to frustrate the PI's into selling cheaply to them by knocking out their trailing stops - like taking sweets off a child.
20% off the 27p recent top is circa 21.5p - I suspect we're close to the bottom now.
AIMHO/DYOR
Hi Kalan. Excellent post also.
I agree the oil and gas sector is generally unloved atm. But the likes of SQZ / RRE / JSE have all multi bagged In recent years, so does show it's Still possible for companies to flourish in tough market environment's.
Also the institutions were confident of future cash flows to cough up considerably at 35p. As was Mr Knott.
It will be interesting to see what impact some new gas customers in Nigeria will have on SAVPS revenues.
Also a very decent summary Kalan!! +++
Excellent post mcb - the fundamentals matter because they influence the sentiment of investors. however, it isn't the only thing - as Michu has been pointing out - the oily sector is unloved at the moment and people really do respond like sheep. This company is far too complex for the bunch of PI's that circulate around shares - it takes too much hard work for them to work out how to ramp it. The institutions are wary because the company we have taken over went under and the cash flow situation isn't yet transparent - so we have a lack of interest in buying and the usual drift away by bored investors as they see other share with poorer fundamentals rising whilst we fall and drift.
So what to do - well Warren Buffet is about the most famous and one of the most successful investors ever and he would buy on the cheap price relative to fundamentals and then ignore the share price and let the wealth come to him when sentiment turns - which it will at some time. personally I have gone over to his investment style but use the charts to try and get in when it is likely turning upwards so that I don't have to wait and wait for the sentiment to turn. It didn't work here as I invested for the drills and got trapped in by the reverse takeover - the turnaround in sentiment could be slow or swift - just waiting for signs that short term sentiment has turned before buying more and for long term uptrend we will need 27p+ IMO - so the fundamentals underpin the share buy IMO but I am willing to be guided by charts and indicators to see what others are doing - because it is what others are doing that drives the sp - not the fundamentals of the company (other than that is one of the factors that affects sentiment).
When the seven deal was financed at 35p in December 2017 the company was valued at around 313 million.
It appears nothing has been priced in by the market from that time onwards. When you consider the following facts,
× Transaction was improved significantly in the company's favour from original deal.
× Niger proven, with 5/5 discoverys.
× Pipeline deal finalised to export crude from Niger via CNPC pipeline. SAVP has access to this !
× New Gas customers lined up for extra Gas sales in Niger.
× Seven transaction completed on improved terms from the original deal.
When you assess the above you can see a huge disparity between the fundamentals and share price. So far since deal completion every day has been a down day for the share price. To be honest I was expecting the opposite.
Sometimes I do wonder that the only way to achieve fair value here would be for a take out of the company. What price is anyone's guess, but atm it appears when the fundamentals improve the share price fails to reflect this.
Scratching my head atm.