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Now I'd agree it's a 'plunge' very peculiar!
Just wondering if we should get an RNS for tax paid, agreed it’s not normal but the size of it is significant. I guess it may be in the final update together with the other financial confirmations. Mind you we could do without any more good news!
Trek
Well done to those who took Jadestone as a co-investment with Savp!
Yeah plunge was a bit dramatic telegraphist - it looked a big drop on the weekly chart - only about 2.5% - it has led to some reasonably large sells so the mm's must be pleased and of course they will have buyers to buy them at a higher price.
Investing on AIM in good fundamentals doesn't seem to get you to millionaire status does it. Charts are vital too - to let you know what others are doing. it's often counter intelligent.
Imo this will rerate soon and when it does it will be in a blink. A 2p rise and buyers will pile in. Whilst documentation completion and additional share listings may be a catalyst I don't think the rise will be RNS driven. Thinking logically news hasn't taken it down it's been lack of news. Also good news hasn't taken it up ergo this will rise in a blink on no news. It will be driven by one trade too many and a MM caught with a thin book then boom as fomo kicks in. ATM everyone is just being blinded by research and data expecting a rationale explanation. Aim doesn't always work like that.
I just hope I can get some more in here from TXP and I3E before it does.
Trek
'The plunge we have seen this morning '
Not sure I'd call it a 'plunge' Kalan, but I get the drift. Not sure I can remember such a 'damp squib' reaction to what on the face of it appears truly great news in terms of closing the deal, bwdik which is why I'm not a millionaire, yet! ;)
p.s. the investor call on Thursday could be the catalyst - we will see.
In the real world you would have thought it would be heading North by now Agadem - got to agree. In the world of charts the sp has gone down into the 25's as I predicted last week - it was there in the charts as plain as day. I think 25 should hold it before the upturn comes (there are no guarantees) - in my humble, and far from certain opinion, buyers are waiting for confirmation before stepping in and the market makers, who look at the charts, know that to get any trade they have to drop it to where the chartists think it is going - a self fulfilling prophecy if you like. The plunge we have seen this morning could be the capitulation before the rise but I think it looks like it will have to wait until later this week before we see an uptrend set in - so plenty of time for those sitting on the sides to get in. All IMO DYOR and thanks for your valuable input on this board Agadem - your sharing of information is much appreciated - thought I would say that whilst it is still quiet.
I honestly don't know Agadem. Maybe some expected a full detailed plan of all the work coming up or the completion of the supplementary admission document other than just a basic statement saying deal completed. I don't know what the previous short position was/is now or if there was any link to the new shares being issued which has weighed on the share price in some way. Either way i'm just glad to see this milestone acheived and know that's it's delivering cash and that it will offer a lot of new opportunities as we are a major producing company.
For 2020 the expected net asset cash flows were expected to be one of the following or somewhere between the two.
Daily Contract Quantity (DCQ) = $153.5m or $120m under Take or Pay (ToP).
These were defined on 31/5/19 RNS (note 8) as Savps economic share of post-tax operating cash flows less capital expenditure.
The Mirabaud note of 15/11/19 estimates Savp for 2020 will generate revenue of $235m of which $174m being EBITDA.
In the worst case under ToP of $120m post tax opex, Savp should have $30m quarterly before any new business (at least one new gas sales contract mentioned as expected in the coming months).
It's just recieved $54m from its partner AIIM and $20m from some of the former senior note holders - so $74m in as of now less whatever costs- maybe $10m given that's the max we were borrowing ? plus there's also still the possibility of a further 5% sale for $16m to AIIM.
Savp also stated it was $5m net to first oil now in Niger. (1k bopd estimated to yield up to $10m/yr cash flow).
No mention of any drawdown from the $50m facility obtained from the Oil Trading Group or what that might be used for but it entitles the provider to have first offer on handling the Nigerian or Niger oil.
Now that the deal has been signed off and completed, we should hear at some point on the refinancing under proposed better terms for the debt which would free up more cash for Savp.
In the absence of a partner for Niger, the above might see Savp with around $100m cash at the end of its first quarter and an ongoing $30m/quarterly.
So maybe as they take control now of the assets, a few months bedding in before any sign off on the next Niger work programme - but come it most definitely will.