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Thanks for sharing that Komakino, that’s really, really interesting.
I had hoped for the Tribunal to sit at least 3-4 months before that, perhaps Feb’25, but my guess is that the number of matters in dispute and/or amalgamated into one arbitration may mean that although the case is a relatively simply case of direct expropriation by the Chadian government, the matter had become more complex in scope - eg including midstream CC matters etc. My guess only.
Under the new ICC rules incorporated there is a time limit on publication of award after hearing. From memory the ICC Arbitration Rules 2021 include a deadline of six months from the last signature to the terms of reference. If memory serves and this is correct this means we’re looking at publication within H2 2025. My guess only.
RR,
According to Blaise Dariustone, a reporter who is a correspondent at BBC News Afrique, 'The trial between Chad and Savannah Energy at the Paris Court of Commerce is scheduled for June 2025.'
FaceBook post on 8th March
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004271854537
That’s my thought too. Not so much so the legal stuff; but they might have verbally agreed to it it’s now waiting to be signed. However we’re all guessing and the optimism in us might have led to any over interpretation. Fact is it’s still not approved.
The only positive I take is that the longer the suspension, the more chance we have at returning higher than suspended price even if no M&A should occur - apart from SC of course.
Accugas debt deal getting closer to happening if fx continues to improve
And Accugas debt hopefully a lot less than we were last informed of. Was it $434m with every $20m reduction worth 1.2p?
I’d hope to see net debt well south of $400m next time we see a new number.
CPF should be complete within the next 2 / 3 months and let’s see what’s lined up for incremental production being added.
My main concern is not losing SS as a entity but going into back to back suspensions due to small MC relative to a new M&A deal.
What’s going on in Niger? I am expecting a positive update soon on that front.
I still think the last RNS (although mandated by AIM) is to put pressure on SS Gov signature pre the oil conference at the end of June. The Gov (IMHO) would struggle to stand up and say we are open for business if our deal has not been ratified by then.
Seems like current production is still a big fat zero in SS ATM so the headline figure will not be reducing from current production but I hope we have negotiated the headline figure of $1.25bn down a chunk due to the increased risk profile of getting BOD’s to market!
I can’t believe how little news we have seen on our other business interests excluding SS and CC…(where is all the CC revenue currently going)
Are we over 12 months in to the ICC cases being initiated with guidance saying ‘expected to take 12 - 18 months? Update soon - a slight possibility…
The key sentence to me is "Completion of the Proposed Transaction remains subject to satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, principally the receipt of written approval for the Proposed Transaction from the Government of South Sudan."
Does this imply that verbal approval could have been received? And that it is now down to lawyers redlining few bits & bobs in the contract?
Scotpak - if the company sticks to its usual reporting timeline than we should receive a Q1 2024 operational update either the coming we or the week after similar to last year, so I am hoping this will shed some light on a few of the items I have listed.
We need some of the boxes in your list to be ticked off!! Otherwise we seem to be forever stuck in this cycle of: shock- anger - disappointment - grief and finally hope!!
In conclusion, the strategic extensions undertaken by Savannah are not merely procedural but instrumental in repositioning the company for substantial growth. As a shareholder and observer, I maintain a positive and forward-looking perspective. I believe in Savannah's strategic direction and its potential to enhance value through careful selection of opportunities and diligent execution. The foundational assets in Nigeria and Niger, alongside prospective ventures, position Savannah for a bright future across the short, medium, and long term.
I am optimistic about the recent developments indicated by Savannah's announcements. Here's a summary reflecting my bullish outlook:
I'm encouraged by the decision to postpone market re-engagement until the full-year results are disclosed. This approach is prudent because the market couldn't properly value Savannah during its 2023 suspension, lacking a reference for its performance and growth trajectory in Nigeria. This extension ensures a fair assessment, irrespective of potential acquisitions.
On the Nigerian front, several operational and corporate matters are nearing resolution:
The Accugas debt restructuring, bolstered by the Naira's recovery.
The impact of the CPF completion timeline.
Engagement with new gas customers.
Finalization of the Sinopec acquisition.
The extension grants Savannah additional time to advance its arbitration cases. While outcomes may still be 6-12 months away, progress indicators are promising.
In Niger, the strategic focus remains paramount. With the pipeline ready for imminent operations, expectations are high for Savannah to prioritize this asset, acquisition aside.
The Mali wind project, pending government approval, underscores our commitment to renewable energy initiatives.
Recent updates suggest a strategic preference for market re-entry as a larger entity, possibly incorporating the South Sudan acquisition among others. This aligns with the notion that current extensions are strategic, facilitating a broader consolidation.
The pursuit of additional deals, such as the Sinopec Stubb Creek acquisition and interest in Assala Gabon (as reported by Africa Intelligence), demonstrates our capability to engage in significant transactions despite the ongoing South Sudan situation.
The continued ability to secure capital for attractive deals reaffirms our strategic acumen. The challenge lies in navigating approval timelines efficiently.
I am particularly supportive of pursuing the Assala Gabon deal, recognizing the value of a potentially expedited government approval process. This strategic approach may warrant a premium investment for timely execution.
This strategy suggests a desire to minimize future trading suspensions, leveraging current opportunities to enhance company stature and market presence.
Clarity around the South Sudan deal, particularly regarding government approvals, dispels previous uncertainties related to export routes and financing.
It's evident that the focus isn't solely on South Sudan. Discussions on other potential deals are advancing, with some nearing agreement phases.
Assuming the SS deal completes and there is another significant deal being worked on in the background, could the combined combined Gross assets, Profits and Turnover figures that will be reported in the AD, be used in the Class Tests to avoid another RTO suspension?
Share price growth following deal completion and other delayed/imminent price trigger announcements would hopefully satisfy the Gross Capital/Consideration Tests.
Well there is no 'Deal Signing Ceremony' in this years conference agenda PF - not that the last one did us any good! - so hopefully we get sign off before then. Assuming we get this over the line we could end up paying peanuts, if anything at all, for the acquisition which would be a good way to end the everlasting saga if that is what happens.
So here's a random theory. SAVE/Petronas have agreed they'll wait it out for as long as it takes to get signoff. Save provide the staff to run the operation (as contractors of Petronas) so Petronas don't waste resources on something they no longer want. In the meantime, SAVE complete further acquisitions which mean that the Petronas acquisition no longer classifies as a RTO and so we come back to market. When SS finally realise they are not going to win the stand-off they give agreement and Petronas pay us a nice amount of cash as the final account reconciliation.
No doubt that would have a few on here pulling their hair out ;-)
2023 Annual Report released on Thursday 6th June 2024 with 21 clear days notice of the AGM.
Admission document issued Thursday 13th June 2024 incorporating the 31st December 2023 results with 14 days clear notice of an EGM held at the same time as the AGM.
AGM and EGM held 28th June 2024, resolutions passed, accounts filed with Companies House on time and SS acquisition completed on the last day of the South Sudan Oil and Power 2024 conference.
It's possible!
there's a lot of things we don't know and perhaps a lot of things save can't say other than the timeline indicated.
there's been little news media reach into the ministry of s.sudan by the likes of african intelligence unlike some other countries in africa where they more frequently report on so info is sp****.
my thoughts are if the deal isn't still on, then why is save still waiting for it to succeed some 16 months later.
(seplat are still expecting their exxon nigerian deal to close which was announced almost 26 months ago).
s.sudan could be negotiating any tax due such as cgt or exit fee from petronas - who knows and could be a reason for no approval as yet ? if so it's not in the gift of save to comment on or divulge as i would see it.
as for needing the fy audited results and the finalisation audit of the pcnl 2023 fy -
at the time of the spa on 12/12/22 - pcnl had an unaudited report of total assets of $994m and $492m net up to 30/6/22.
the audited accounts seem to have been at least completed up until the end of 2021 at the date of the spa with an average post tax profit for 2019/20/21 of $130.6m.
it was saves intention to publish an adm doc in h1 2023 so if this was up to end june, save would have had their annual 22 accounts released for inclusion in the adm doc and likewise pcnls full yr 2022 in the h1 adm doc expectation imo in that timeline.
with it having run into q2 2023 it seems (as they have indicated) the f/yr 22 for save and pcnl are now required for the adm doc ?
as it stands from the latest update and aim extension to 17th may -
1. govt approval expected/sought first - "following receipt of this approval, savannah would then progress to finalise an aim admission document"
2. saves results are usually done/released in june and it's when these are done along with pcnls own accounts they would go into the adm doc followed by the shareholder approval meeting - which they indicate will be late q2 early q3.
3. late q2 is june normally for our f/yr results.
4. early q3 is july which is usually the egm/agm a month after results release.
while we still wait govt approval - extension is to 17/5 some 5 and a half weeks.
ann results regardless end june max = 7-11 weeks even if govt approval is earlier - doesn't bring the adm doc closer as i see it.
Gutted on delays like everyone else. Hopefully there is some progress in the background, hence the need to keep giving dates/ timelines. On a more positive note the NAIRA has now strengthened around 22% from its lows. Hopefully the debt facility refi isnt too far off.
The news in this RNS is the need for audited accounts. This has never been a requirement before, so why now? If SS is approved and the effective date of the acquisition is as suspected then the SS figures will be included in those accounts. As I understand it, these then become the accounts used to determine if a deal is an RTO or not. Is there another deal lurking out there which would be a RTO unless accounts which include SS are used?
Good point Zen on the timeline, and something they would have been well aware of last week - so as pointed out, why didn't they just incorporate this release into the previous one ? Producing an RNS after market on a Friday seems a bit spivy. Hopefully the iis with a direct line to the Board will still be on the case come Monday.
Unnd, good question. Here's a theory from Spizz Oil on ADVFN:
I believe the final paragraph is the one to focus on.
I simply cannot believe that this is being drawn out if the Company's BOD, its advisors and the regulators are not of the opinion that the deal will get over the line.
Full year results are normally posted on 8th June and as we have today been told, the PCNL financial statements for 2023 are also a pre requisite for the publication of the AIM admission document.
Last week we were told news would be forthcoming by 17th May. One week later and it's the end of Qtr 2 or beginning of Qtr 3.
For the regulators to agree to another extension, so shortly after the announcement of the last one, I believe is to accomodate the release of the two documents, with the PCNL financial statements following on from our FY 23 accounts.
It would not surprise me in the least if we receive notice of SS government approval before the publication of the two documents.
I just hope like some of you stating approval soon will be proven right. Why didn’t they incorporate today’s rns message last time? Instead making us wait for nothing.
If SAVE are now anticipating late Q3/early Q4 for the publication of the Admission Document, how does that align with the revised cancellation date of 17/05/2024.
What a mess we are in.
In short, there is no progress since end of 2023. Why AIM agrees to another extension.
Even if we got govt approval this Monday, I can’t see the adm doc any sooner. Requires our full year results completed which nearly every year is June completion/release. They’ve also got to incorporate the PCNL results for 2023.
Following the adm doc, it’s another month approx for shareholder approval.
Ok, this is what I imply:
One imagines Russia does not follow similar codes of conduct to Savannah when undertaking its international transactions.
And with that, I'm going to bed.
Good luck with that!
Yes, a lot of us do and it is frustrating but it's best to just try and chill as none of us can influence it. Now, how to tell my wife!!
Fair point! My frustration brims over with this company.
I have a lot of capital committed here (as I know others do) .
Can is kicked down the road now until Q3….