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Let’s hope there will still be a bit of capacity left in the pipe for us to stick 5kboepd into it soon…
April 13, 20242:40 PM GMT+1Updated 16 hours ago
NIAMEY, April 13 (Reuters) - Niger has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) worth $400 million linked to the sale of crude oil from its Agadem oilfield, Niger state television RTN reported late on Friday.
RTN did not provide details on the agreement. Niger's military authorities and CNPC could not be reached for comment.
"China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough," Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine said at the signing ceremony, which was broadcast by RTN.
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"This signature demonstrates the friendship ... and fruitful cooperation between the two states," Chinese ambassador Jiang Feng said.
An export pipeline project backed by CNPC subsidiary PetroChina (601857.SS), opens new tab was officially launched last November, linking the Agadem oilfield to the port of Cotonou in neighbouring Benin.
Previously, the West African country had a small oil refinery with capacity of around 20,000 bpd that mostly supplies Niger's domestic fuel market.
You understood perfectly, SoG. Was similar to Rocky's point on stranded gas. I probably wasn't v clear.
The reason I don't favour dividends, is that we must be paying about 15% interest right now: a distribution is unjustifiable in such circumstances.
Agadem/RR & CYB - Many thanks your thoughts & comments.
RR - particularly interested in your list of topics covered with IR as, without wishing to get too OCD, I read it as a bit of a blend - partly items discussed, partly your hope / wish list for 2024…but it’s a bit tricky to understand which items you covered with IR and which points are your/our shareholder hopes. All of which I agree are key points of course, with exception of the dividend. Think
Latter more important in 25-26 when special divi of CC ICC Award sum should be contemplated.
One of the things IR should now be able to confirm or correct is the previously posted / discussed news publication of the June 2025 ICC hearing. So I’m curious as to whether this was discussed.
IR should also be able to share the CPF completion date and modeled numbers - quantum of base case more gas, % increase in base case of sales, etc. appreciate not actual. But to your point, this is our sole jewel in the crown at present, so some hint on this might be helpful for patient shareholders who have received very little info for a long time on the underlying business.
CYB - I’m assuming “ It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.” relates to the Take or Pay contracts. You’re right that this is again something an Operational Update should cover.
Given the significant burden of servicing of debt finance, I'd sooner see debt paid down or money put to work in high-IRR, low-payback-period projects and capex than any distribution.
On the Chad stuff, it can't be appealed forever. Others understand arbitral timelines far better than me. Injunctive seizure of cargo, either at Kribi or at destination port is how we get paid (should the arbitration be successful), I believe.
It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.
Now at 1,194 which is a 26.5% improvement from the recent all time low.
We know small distributions have previously been pencilled in but luck has not gone our way on that front. I’d have seriously expected one if SS closed but now with zero production at the moment I guess we would have to wait a while longer yet even if the deal closed. On the ICC cases, we could well win the awards and maybe North of $500m but how and when would SAVE receive the dosh and as some have mentioned, how many appeal challenges are allowed and how long will they take?
Can’t wait to see a comprehensive update on paper so that we can really see what’s going on. I still get stuff from IR and had another call last week but nothing tangible to mention to be fair. Chewing over old cud again but this is a taste of what we hope to see during the course of 2024:-
CPF to complete in Nigeria
New customers added and existing ones grown on the Accugas network
Will we add more stranded gas
I hope to see a renewable deal announced and hydrocarbon M&A in Nigeria too
Complete the Stubb Creek deal in Nigeria - hopefully by September as per guidance
Complete oil test in Niger and first oil of 1.5kboepd to commence
35m 2C to reclassify as 2P
New drilling program in Niger or introduce partner - minimum income of $250m
Update on 4 x ICC cases - highly unlikely TY but I still hope to see one
Debt to be reduced to below $300m by YE and to be refinanced
Progress to be made on renewable deals and as Z mentioned could this be split off as it’s own entity
So a lot to get our teeth in to but unfortunately, the one jewel in our crown remains to be gas in Nigeria ATM
Watch this space…
Totally absolutely. Please keep firing up this Savannah obsession. Trust is much needed otherwise it’s impossible to go on. Gratitudes and appreciations. No word is good enough.
I second that sentiment CYB. Over 15 months with scarcely any news from the company so it's really appreciated that posters like TiL have managed to keep ferreting out information to share with us all.
Thanks Trust.
Whilst I'm here, thanks also for all your thoughtful posts here over many months. You're a big part of keeping this board alive and keeping us all thinking: it's appreciated.
Caution here is the article Vitol still front runners -
Trader Gunvor takes a swing at GOC-Vitol agreement over Carlyle assets
Guillaume Letessier, a senior manager at Geneva-based trading company Gunvor, visited Libreville in February to meet with junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema as part of the company's efforts to get in Gabon's good graces over its rival Vitol to buy Carlyle's assets. According to our sources, Gunvor offered the Gabon Oil Company (GOC) $950m for Carlyle's local assets, currently operated by Assala Energy. However, Vitol is also based in Geneva and has exclusive negotiating rights with the GOC for this. It is also promising the GOC a hefty sum in exchange for Carlye's production of 45,000 bpd. These assets were acquired from Shell in 2017 for over $700m.
This buying race follows the GOC's November 2023 announcement that it was exterting its pre-emption rights over Carlyle's assets in Gabon. Initially, these were supposed to go to Maurel & Prom, a subsidiary of Indonesian Pertamina (AI, 01/04/24). Oligui Ngema confirmed his intention to finalise the acquisition during his official New Year's address. On 15 February, Carlyle and GOC signed a sales and purchase agreement, and GOC must now raise the necessary funds to seal the deal.
-dare remind us what they said the debt refinance would add to our SP in UK pence?
Yes, the Gas revenues are fixed to a USD rate but paid in Naira.
Thought our contract in usd but paid in naira?
Local currency Nigerian govt bonds trade at a yield of 19%, thus any debt facility we get will have a similar or higher rate. But the rate isnt so important. What is important is that an expensive USD facility is being replaced by a local currency facility. Given SAVE revenues are in USD or are linked to contract fixed in USD terms, this will be a BIG positive.
Just the poster’s comment after the latest rns. Don’t think he knows anything more than the next person. Approval could be anytime or never. I hope it’s before 17th May. I also hope we will have an update on other areas, Niger, Nigeria and other activities. It’s been too long with no news.
I know we have all been sweating over debt restructure for some time now but was just wondering the effect the current interest rates of the local currency would have on our $400m+ debt would have ?
It is about time we at least had the unaudited 2023 results. In previous years the company have always given us some indication of the full years results in December of that year, even if it was unaudited. As far as anyone could tell it was relatively accurate when the audited sets were published. It would be good for the shareholders to get this information after all we are patiently enduring extended periods of lock in. Come on board throw us some scraps!
A B&B now turned up.
Doesn't appear to be an end-of-taxyear B&B / rollover, as they don't match.
Two arranged trades between private parties, for quite significant amounts, at an encouraging 7% premium to closing price.
Just like a few weeks ago a couple of trades have gone through? Above the ask too!
Thanks for sharing that Komakino, that’s really, really interesting.
I had hoped for the Tribunal to sit at least 3-4 months before that, perhaps Feb’25, but my guess is that the number of matters in dispute and/or amalgamated into one arbitration may mean that although the case is a relatively simply case of direct expropriation by the Chadian government, the matter had become more complex in scope - eg including midstream CC matters etc. My guess only.
Under the new ICC rules incorporated there is a time limit on publication of award after hearing. From memory the ICC Arbitration Rules 2021 include a deadline of six months from the last signature to the terms of reference. If memory serves and this is correct this means we’re looking at publication within H2 2025. My guess only.