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thanks Trek btw..
''Zinfandel…. Oh dear… filtered.''
I rated you towards the of top all time posters end on these boards porschefund.. after that ....well....I'm going to even move you UP one more notch..... The purists do tend to frown on the Zin/Prim.. but I've got a sweet tooth and love both.. (it was Brazin B - Waitrose- btw and not as rich/sweet as the usual zin/prim experience..so purists might even give this a second look .. then again, who am I trying to kid.. they may well not ..)
Porsche this is the 2nd time I’ve laughed out loud reading a post on lse, I nearly spat out the Ch Leoville Barton 2004 I was drinking (lesser vintages are mid week only wines in my household)!
The other time was when some bloke said there was a pump and dump going on in ARS...
On the contrary these forums are about sharing data. It’s for the recipient to then verify. As you have done.
You for one are not worthy of a green box!
Thank you for your contributions and humility. Good behaviours that are often lacking in this #me#me era.
Good luck with your investments,
Zinfandel…. Oh dear… filtered.
very kind cautionourblast.. you and many other posters together make this the board I rate most highly since I've started posting on lse.. I'll raise a glass of Zinfandel to you all in 10 mins ..
I'm trying to manage my own expectations on this one. I am confident the debt will be refinanced successfully but the key for me will be if there is any equity dilution, how much and at what price. I am hoping the long term holders don't get punished (I have only been holding for about 18 months). Let's see if AK does the right thing by his loyal PI shareholders who have stuck by him when a lot of IIs didn't.
I’ve always enjoyed your posts on this and other boards. You always discuss pertinent topics and have a humility that we could all learn from. So you’re one of the last people I’d filter.
The standard of posting on this board is top-notch (for a few days more, at least).
I’ll be interested to see if any of the up-to-30% dilution is undertaken. I’m suspecting not (Knott?)
We’re all speculating now; not much longer to wait.
Best wishes, all.
That's very helpful Trek, thanks... and I should have looked that up myself first..
'' If the enlarged entity seeks admission, it must make an application in the same manner as any other applicant applying for admission of its securities for the first time.”
I wasn't thinking of it like that .. so that might well change my thinking again.. and I need a re think on this generally.. but, far more importantly, nice wine beckons now, so file my previous post under bin please .. or indeed just filter me generally might be a good idea :-)
For the 7 Seven transaction, the shares were suspended from the 8th June 2017 to 22nd December 2017, so over 6 months without any notification of an extension. At least this time SAVE have stated their intention to complete by the 17th Dec, so have provided more information than last time. I agree that it is most likely with the regulators to decide how long they allow them to remain suspended, but at the moment they seem happy to allow them to go over the 6 month period, as they did last time.
The 6 months is a guide. There are contingencies under rule 40.
We can expect a general meeting, or more like a vote before relisting. If I am interpreting it correctly. Rule 14 applies...
14. A reverse takeover is any acquisition or acquisitions in a twelve month period which for an AIM company would:
— exceed 100% in any of the class tests; or
— result in a fundamental change in its business, board or voting control; or
— in the case of an investing company, depart materially from its investing policy (as stated in its admission document or approved by shareholders in accordance with these rules).
Any agreement which would effect a reverse takeover must be:
— conditional on the consent of its shareholders being given in general meeting;
— notified without delay disclosing the information specified by Schedule Four and insofar as it is with a related party, the additional information required by rule 13; and
— accompanied by the publication of an admission document in respect of the proposed enlarged entity and convening the general meeting.
Where shareholder approval is given for the reverse takeover, trading in the AIM securities of the AIM company will be cancelled. If the enlarged entity seeks admission, it must make an application in the same manner as any other applicant applying for admission of its securities for the first time.”
I have no idea about government approval. That would be different to LSE rules. It’s not something you can write in. I guess it would be in country trading legals that would apply to the newly listed SAVE similar to license applications.
The RTO is compliance to the regulatory framework to prove as much as possible we are a fit and proper company.
''Trek - the company have made no mention that the publication of the AIM document is contingent on government approval. Given how long we know this can take, it would be a big omission on their part if this were to be the case.''
I continue to be surprised on so little comment here on viewing this paradigm from the perspective of how long AIM regulators may or may not allow save.l remain suspended: if AK wants save.l to remain listed on AIM, he - now -has to re list when he's told he has to relist.. ie the regulators are the ultimate arbitrator here, not AK .
(Maybe looking at it from that perspective can be more uncomfortable and so people just go with disregarding that perspective as it might be inconvenient to their aspirations here.. so fine by if all disregard this post completely too :-) )
Also worth noting a new company was set up on 12th November 2021, Savannah Energy UK Ltd
Nature of business
64209 - Activities of other holding companies not elsewhere classified
Ahh you're correct I didn't spot the reference numbers there, told you I wasn't an expert in corporate finance!
It is the charge by Vitol Finance BV registered on 9th November that has now been satisfied in full (debt repaid). Leaving the charge by Vitol SA in place. This applies to all four companies referred to in my post on 5th December.
Charges now showing as satisfied
Clearly a lot going on in the background here so you'd need to be an expert in corporate finance to know the relevance of this ... and I'm not!
Your guess is as good as mine Agadem.
I recall in an interview during the year that AK said there were plenty of funders looking for infrastructure projects so Accugas and CC might fall under that seperately from anything Vitol might be involved in.
My point was that the Niger assets could have a trade-off against some of the costs for the Chad production assets.
Z - forgive me for my lack and depth of knowledge in the O&G industry and I don’t know exactly what Vitol would and would not do re their finance offerings. Would this scenario be possible with them in all 3 of our soon to be assets.
1 the refinance Accugas debt at LIBOR + X% with X being significantly less than the current 10%. And extent the debt term to reflect our 17 years $4.3bn contracted revenues - maybe classed as RBL.
2 partner with us in Niger and we give 30%-50% of the asset for a payment of $xyz cash payment.
3 part fund the CC acquisition with $abc on another RBL basis.
Then we buy CC as cash from $xyz + $abc.
Please feel free to blow holes in this but it could possibly be a way of buying CC without issuing any equity. This could pave the way to quite a quick and large dividend payment.
After so many years of discussion on farm-outs, where are we on either a Niger partner or going it alone?, given we are at the point where we were to establish the EPS from this year end onwards and the actual Niger-Benin pipeline due to complete in 15 months.
Would Vitol pass up on such a farm-in opportunity or stake in 30-50% of low risk oil and let another company potentially come in ?
SAVEs previous document said approx $125m of back costs in Niger were recoverable to the end of 2019.
There's likely to be some renewal costs to pay for the new 10 yr single PSC ?
So could VITOL be our defacto partner in Niger either by
A cash contribution ?
Further direct stake in SAVE considering they are already an investor ?
Some kind of part swap for funding the Exxon acquisition ?
$125m approx in back costs + minimum of 33 mmbls 2C which will move to P2 once development sanctioned - At $4.60/b in the broker notes that would make those reserves worth $150m plus the back costs.
Surely, given those back costs/2C basic valuation - to get your hands on a share of over 2 billion bls mid case risked recoverable, you would think this could attract north of $100m to let someone like Vitol in, given the scale of Niger ?
Why (for VITOL) buy up production assets in the US, Russia and Africa but let one of the biggest near term opportunities in scale go to someone else ?
I would be surpsrised after all this time if some kind of Niger deal isn't included.
I agree, telegraphist, that there's a danger (understandably) that we get a bit over-enthusiastic about the relisting price.
These types of small-cap, deemed-high-risk shares tend to have a show-me-don't-tell-me element to their pricing (which could explain, for instance, why Niger was largely discounted in any valuation prior to suspension). There're lots of potential positives on relisting: debt restructure for Accugas ; funding for Niger drilling campaign; key strategic partner in Vitol; Uquo successful drill; new customer taking gas (FIPL) and others likely coming; increased Nigerian reserves; reduction in net debt from existing operations; growing revenues; higher o&g prices; etc. I'm sure I've overlooked some points here. And these are without even mentioning the CC deal. All other things being equal (and I know they're not!) CC should be accretive to the share price by the difference between the value of future cashflows based on existing Exxon operations less the price that SLP pays Exxon (i.e. how much of a bargain have we got?)
So with all that in mind, it seems highly likely that a decent premium to the suspension price is realised when we're relisted. That said, I'd prefer to see some SP stability through the first half of 2022 and then steady growth based on tangible operational progress rather than a teenage party of excitement on relisting that then ends up with a number of punters quickly looking sick, sober and sorry.
Best wishes, everyone.
If this evolving story of value recognition follows the script that the main posters have already outlined, the difficult part will be sitting on your hands, resisting the temptation to book paper profits after the suspension ends. However attractive that may be, and understandable for those having tied up funds, the sp may not open that much above the placing prices of the earlier years, depending on selling pressure. AK will still need to demonstrate a sequence of rising Accugas cash collections, as well as new customer growth, in Nigeria, plus the Niger plan being delivered, starting in 2022 before scaling up with more discoveries, plus the CC working interest resuming trend and being expanded upon. Not all of this will be visible from day one. That's me being typically conservative, prepared to hold this one for many quarters to extract full value, or something approaching it, whilst maybe being pleasantly surprised by the speed of sp transformation here in early 2022.
I'm cautiously optimistic and hope that AK doesn't forget us long (suffering) term holders. I've been in since 2016 and had to severely average down to keep my head above water here and we're still some way off the price I first paid (which I don't like to talk about!) ;) I'll wait til I see the admission document before getting as carried away as some on here. However, if some of the numbers quoted on here turn out to be right, I'll be absolutely delighted. Only 11 sleeps til (hopefully) we find out. Good luck everyone, lets hope this wait turns out to be extremely worth it
Great Research Porsche, for me the most encouraging thing here is the importance of Niger finally coming to light and how this piece of the jigsaw will all of a sudden unlock so much potential value, this really could be a masterstroke by AK.
Just an aside. Nigeria now on travel red list. Not a surprise I guess.
The added reassurance here is that rather than some random bank it's an organisation that has political and other connections in the region.