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Zengas - The oil export through Sudan isn’t a new risk and always existed at heightened risk so I can’t imagine the finders of the deal to pull out because of the current situation in Sudan in all honest opinion so it remains to be seen whether the deal completes or not and whether the expeditions of re-listing are still with the next few weeks prior to H2. One would hope that having one deal falter with Petronas already that there is desire from both sides to complete the South Sudan deal at whatever cost. I am intrigued to see the next update as we haven’t had one since the war in Sudan broke out so we are all assuming that May weigh on the potential deal and perhaps delaying timeline beyond people expectation, obviously there are still within there said H1 timeline but with every passing week we get closer to the six month deadline, so one would hope that we have positive news on that front.
We seem to forget that the top partners in South Sudan are South Sudans state NilePet, Chinas CNPC, Indias ONGC Videsh. I still beleive Chinas Sinopec and Tri-Ocean Energy may still be there also.
All these other participants need to see alternative export routes rather than just depending solely on Sudan while we worry about Save/Petronas. The others have to drive alternative options and not solely all our own worry if this deal goes ahead or not. Imo there are alot more strategies and angles weighing on the deal than we can be aware of.
So although some time away it's good to see that Chinas CNPC subsiduary will construct the EACOP project. Imo these are details that will affect the strategy of Save/Petronas deal financing terms and who might our backer be (Refer again to the Vitol report last year and the high potential rewards for an oil marketer).
We are a partner of Sinopec in S.Creek. We work closely with CNPC in Niger re pipeline access and we have used their subsiduary for drilling all 5 wells so far. This comes on top of S.Sudan having bought land for oil export facilities in Djibouti. Save also sending a renewables development analyst to the Ethiopian investment conference last week.
EACOP (Oil Pipeline)
20/1/23 "The pipeline would also tap South Sudan's Oil, which according to the report, is of higher quality due to its low Sulphur, and also cheaper to extract. This would help South Sudan to reduce its decades of reliance on the Republic of Sudan(Sudan) for its oil exports. The UKCOP's initial prospects would enable Juba to ship an estimated 130,000 barrels of oil per day before including the Ugandan and Kenyan crude export volumes. "
https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/geopolitical-intrigues-decimated-planned-uganda-kenya-pipeline-eacop-report
8/5/23
"China is likely to take over financing of the 1,443km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project following withdrawal by several top lenders amid pressure from environmental activists. This shift in financing follows a string of EACOP deals signed with several Chinese firms including an agreement between the project’s lead investor, oil and gas major TotalEnergies, and pipeline contractor and China National Petroleum Corporation subsidiary, China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPP), to carry out the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) works for the project.
Set to become the longest heated oil pipeline in the world, China’s financing is poised to offer new life to the mega project, which is expected to transport 216,000 barrels of oil per day from the Tilenga and Kingfisher oilfields in the Lake Albert Basin of Uganda to Tanzania’s Tanga Port.
TotalEnergies and Ugandan Government officials maintain that the project remains on track, with the project expected to undertake land acquisition planning; contract awards; and detailed EPC works between 2022 and 2025, with first oil production and export due for 2025."
https://energycapitalpower.
Komakino - fine agreed we may not get news on 12th June than add 2 more weeks to that and 7 weeks. Now there is a guarantee as they would have to report to the market forcefully of status as they highlighted H1 as admission document so effectively by 30th June 2023. What’s 2 more weeks in the grand scheme of things
Yes, agree TiL. Petronas won't want to start trying to sell to another buyer as these deals probably take well over 12 months from start to finish.
As for deal making goes oil majors have a short window of opportunity to divest. Where the deal is attractive for the buyer and seller. Which means majors who would like to divest have about 3yrs more to divest where they can stroll attract buyers in the market after that I feel the oil and gas industry divestment will not be strong and most oil majors will have lost opportunity to sell assets so they will just run operations till the field is economically viable before pulling out of the country. So Petronas I am sure will love to make conditions as favourable as possible to make sure they are able to sell to savannah otherwise another opportunity may not arise anytime soon
TiL, we didn't get notification of an extension for the Seven deal even though it lasted longer than 6 months, so we may not necessarily get one in 5 weeks, even though it will be inferred. Will be interesting to see if the conference goes ahead under the current circumstances.
All in all we have got 5 weeks till news either one of 3 things
1) termination of SPA
2) extension of suspension
3) deal completion
Yes, agree NtM, many ways this could play out. I'm happy to let AK decide what is the best way. He's got a lot riding on this financially and reputationally. Personally I'd like my trading account active again as all my trading cash was in here hoping for a rise off the Chad completion!, but if it needs to take longer then I can live with that.
Tier, not sure about the extension; the 6 months quoted on AIM rules is ambiguous and unless somebody else knows for sure then I wouldn't hang my hat on it. The last Seven deal was actually just short of 7 month suspended so there is obviously a way in which it can
Tier - this might help. From page 23 onwards. I’ll be honest I haven’t read it all - too much for me :)
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5.pdf
Can the suspension be extended though?
That’s what I’ve been thinking too, zone. Let’s hope so. AK is smart.
I hear you komakino.. and of course something along thoese lines could happen too.. but many outcomes/permutations are possible .... so it is indeed, as they say, 'very complicated' ...and, net net, if AK can get a suspension extension then he should take it imho .. and if a long one, great too .. and if he subsequently gets into a position to strongly come out of that extended suspension earlier than he might have, then great too .. and he might well be able to get that pleny month suspension extension in the current circumstances.. and allow himself conclude on whatever he finally concludes on in SS, and beyond... while not under the - hardcore time pressure - gun ... so to aptly speak in such sad circumstances..
PS; Adding to Tiers point .. for a big success story to occur for long term shareholders here, AK needs to be both good and lucky.... I'm confident he's good... I'm less confident he's lucky.. and if he were to be unlucky more than neutral luck, even then this share may readily not achieve any significant heights in the next few years window.. or next plenty of years window, even..
Generally, in a sector that will ongoingly gently diminish in significance to the World as we go forward, this game is far more about shares with low debt and high profitability, dividends / sell on value in a few year time, very likely... far more than similar in plenty of years time, very hopefully ....
PS: More generally again, my pivot away from O&G and into green economy metals is going to keep gently progressing year on year, I'm confident..
Imho and DYOR
NtM,I would have thought that in the current circumstances and in order to keep to the timelines, they could re-structure the deal so that Save don't pay up front, but monthly/quarterly based on revenues (no revenues, no payment) until such time they agree the situation has stabilised, and the remaining payment can be agreed. At least that would give SAVE protection but still allow us to start to generate income.
I definitely don’t want us to resume trading until SS deal completion. At this time reopening will not be favourable to the share price, which I think it’s already down enough. Tough luck seems to follow Save?
Is Ethiopia our next entry ???
https://twitter.com/savannah_energy/status/1654420675975602178?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Unless something strongly favourable 'left field' occurs in a deal sense here in the coming month, I'm all for AK gaining an extension to this current share suspension.
This sad Sudan situation should give him a strong case to get such a suspension extension imho.... and that extension hopefully for a good few months more than a good few weeks too, please.
Generally, I don't see Save completing on any South Sudan deal until a sustain/ed/able peace is achieved in Sudan.
Also, while 'academic' I know... but given that this board has plenty of excellent - and much appreciated by me - 'academic' views, I don't feel bad about throwing in an 'academic' view too.. not least as I feel the bulls views have been too dominant here thru suspension and some more bearish posting would be useful as a counter balance towards maintaining a high quality board here.. so:
If this share were to recommence trading next week, for eg, I'd guess there would be a punchy towards very punchy share price re trace in very short order here
It does indeed sound worrying. Who knows what impact will have on the SS deal, even after successful completion.
Yes, it's been a frustrating journey to say the least but I guess better to have a good outcome later than a bad one earlier. Assuming we get a good one later of course!
Komakino, I am certainly looking forward to selling when the time is right, it just feels like I've been waiting for that time for EVER and its going to be a while longer still by the looks of things!
"It is the policy of the United States to support a transition to democracy and civilian transitional government in Sudan, to defend such a transitional government from those who would prevent its initial formation through violence and other methods, and, once formed, to protect it from those who would undermine it. "
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/05/04/executive-order-on-imposing-sanctions-on-certain-persons-destabilizing-sudan-and-undermining-the-goal-of-a-democratic-transition/
The two generals fighting for power in Sudan battled on Wednesday to seize more strategic positions controlling oil infrastructure, military factories and prominent landmarks ahead of the latest attempt at a cease-fire scheduled for the next day…….
Control of the nation’s oil export infrastructure and weapons manufacturing factories is also split. The military controls the oil export terminal in Port Sudan…..but the RSF controls the main refinery along the pipeline, said resident Ahmed Ali, who lives in the Al-Jili area north of the capital. The RSF had about 400 combat vehicles around the refinery….
The pipeline carries oil from South Sudan, a fragile nation that gained its independence from Sudan in 2011 and whose government would immediately collapse without the oil revenue from exports. The need to secure South Sudan’s revenue, and the status of Sudan as a guarantor of South Sudan’s peace deal, give its leader Kiir an extra impetus to try to end the fighting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/03/sudan-conflict-rsf-military/
No one ever got poor taking a profit!
bowwow, everybody sells at some point, even you will! Obviously everybody wants it to relist after good news but you make it sound as if selling is intrinsically a bad thing, which of course it isn't :-)
Hello all,
First post here.
Many thanks to the so many outstanding contributors to this BB, which I have followed for many years. I miss Agadem though.
I have been investing in SAVE just as long and I am quite happy to wait until the SP reaches at least 200p+; I am sure Zengas will work his magic with numbers to confirm the target can be reached in a timely manner.
Therefore, suspension(s) do not bother me that much.
Still, it would be nice to be out of it, if only to watch the SP climb.
All the best,
They're doing what all low IQ criminals do when caught out - blame everyone but themselves.
To describe the Chad ruling elite as a Mafia Organisation would be an insult to the Mafia - as the Mafia would never be so so brazen and stupid.