Savannah Energy Share Chat (SAVE)

So the 260 million is in addition to the 420 million already comitted so that's 680 million dollars for a single plant with no pipelines.
And SAVE sp is 17p.? Someone is having a laugh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/seplat-raises-260-million-to-complete-key-nigerian-gas-project

Much to savour in this story.
The plant will cost 650 million dollars to build.
There was strong interest in the latest funding round with 450 million dollars being offered.

“......along with being able to also make our families and maybe 1 or 2 close friends very happy too....”

Well said Agadem. I am on exactly the same page as you. That’s what gives me joy and motivation.

And I always remember ‘health is wealth’.

Good luck with your investments.

Trek

Paul came to the board and talked a lot of sense, if true he dealt in some quite large transactions. He seemed to know a fair bit of detail on the company, he was not a prolific poster but popped very relevant, sensible posts on here for the time he was knocking around. I was in here well before he came on board, I was in by the 2016 AGM which I attended and met AK for 1 to 1 and SJ at the time. I was blown away on that day with Niger alone, we only had 2 R blocks then but it was still a compelling proposition and I knew then that a big company with big hitters, skin in the game and a house II % register. Coming back to PC, he seemed to disappear just as fast as he arrived out of the blue. Whilst I only joined here in 2017, I’ve been consistent with my positive posts and only ever posted on this BB.

Good luck to Paul, wherever he may be - and who knows he may still be on here with a different name! At the end of the day, I really don’t care about anybody else, I’m here only for my investment / profits. I just try to share my strong views so that other people on here, genuine or not can takes my posts to put alongside all their other research. To be honest, reading posts on boards like this would only ever add a maximum of 5% towards my overall decision making process.

Finally TM - I really like and respect you posts and well done to be in the >1/2m club. I’m sure you’ll make a lot of money. But we all need to keep our feet on the ground and not chase rainbows, as I have been known to do. We all only need so much money and it’s sometimes hard to push the sell button even when we know we’d be financially secure for the rest of our days along with being able to also make our families and maybe 1 or 2 close friends very happy too.

Always remember - very rarely do world champion boxers retire at the top. Similarly people hold too long in shares and painfully watch hard earned paper profits disappear in a flash.

Never fall in love with a company and all that jazz.

Night night.

I get the gist but....

Apologies hit wrong button, but what are your views if still here!

Trek

I love Agedem and he may well know 7 fig holders. Well on the basis that humble I have accumulated 630k and amnow 100% up!

TM - hello again and hope you’re well - great post matey.

Very good slot by AK on VOX again today, super knowledgeable and super confident, clearly got his fingers on all the buttons all over the company.

Great to see the 2nd RNS as well. How many AIM CEO’s / senior personnel VOLUNTEERING to convert cash bonuses to equity? You only usually see that when companies have no cash and have to. Many AIM companies also invariably issue equity (sorry to teach grannies to suck eggs) to keep the lights on and pay themselves. No danger of that here though and we only have 996.4m shares. Some have many billions and then consolidate so that they can rinse and repeat!

In fact, not only will we not be issuing equity (unless of course we get in to some accretive M&A stuff when equity could possibly be part of any deal) but we’re being given strong hints that we will buyback before initiating maiden dividend.

Now let me just do a bit of “pie in the sky” / “blue sky” stuff. “Aim for the moon and if you miss you’ll end up in the stars”. Or as I like to think - “think big or else you’ll never achieve”

So less of all that fun, but just think, if each 2.5mmcf/day (today’s deal with Malak which is a subsidiary of Mansour Group) is worth 2p and Mantrac (as mentioned in AK RNS summary) another subsidiary of Mansour Group use 400MW of dirty diesel power. Why is he mentioning that?

So thinking MASSIVE now, if we prove ourselves with the first 2.5mmcf/d with Malak, maybe we’ll pick up the conversion of diesel to CNG for Mantrac! All 40% cheaper that diesel, better continuity of power and reduced carbon footprint by 30%.

The maths for SAVE would be 400MW / 2.5 x 2p = £3.20 per share + more new clients + 17p current + 20p for FIPL + 2.8bn boe risked recoverable = who the flipin eck knows? But potentially it’s absolutely huge.

So many people still just don’t get the story here. I few have and stuck with it through thick and thin and I honestly believe this will be (and sorry for using this well overused saying on these boards) LIFE changing. There are a few of us on here who own 7 and 8 digit holdings and only 2nd to AK in terms of all the other BOD members.

Some have already smelt the coffee, some are waking up and trying to smell it and some are just plain and simple horses. You can take them to water but...

Mr Trek, As you can see I don't post very often, I sit in the back ground and read. But I need to say thank you, last year you were taking about Save, I did some research and invested.
I did exactly the same for ECR .... finger's crossed that your on a roll.
Thank you.

No much to add apart from another good volume day today and the 52 wk high was broken today at 18.45p

£172m market cap is still a joke when all thinks are considered but we’ve had a good run of late and let’s hope it continues so SAVE gets a fair valuation.

Factor in 30 day VWAP, yes 30days not some soft 5 day target and add to that a 3 month lock in!

This is akin to half decent AIM warrant funding RNS on steroids!!!

Just don’t tell anyone. Just not yet! Lol!

And did anyone notice how FY2019 ops update was so geared to under promise and over deliver?

No R3 Niger
No new customers, no new GSA.
No debt refinancing
No day in court!
No dwelling on high +$billion barrier of entry for infrastructure.
No mention of political allegiances and goodwill.

Remember how AK stayed smuck regarding trade receivables about 6 months ago. He only mentioned the world bank guarantee when the accounts were due. That would have won him a lot of kudos from Buhari. With the SP faltering he held the line supporting his customer. Lth’s will now benefit from that. Don’t underestimate politics!

The thematics of the ops update was to underline EBITDA deliverables mostly attributable to 2019 savings which have been exceptional especially on Capex. Admin was, as I posted before, woeful so they don’t get a brownie point for doing what should be bau! But imo they drew a soft line in the sand with that trading update. There was little growth guidance.

Thing is if you say undervalued, fine, but you gotta qualify why a company is undervalued as is now and not just on a pipe dream basis.

For me, following the SAVE story, that RNS says more than any previous. It’s their bread and butter. I have used a different angle to Zen but still....

Undervalued!!!

Trek

Trek

Firstly I love the RNS and great to see the 47p and 68p I mentioned a few days ago being reiterated here. And this is one reason why I think both hurdle prices will be surpassed this year.

Z - I’ll just add on to your earlier post today if I may:-

So the 2.5mmcf/d from today’s announcement is worth 2p risked to the SP according to Panmure. This is excellent news and let’s just take a worst case scenario and assume that is in today’s price at 17p.

Now please remember the AK call only last Friday when he mentioned at length the new FIPL customer agreement signed last year. He was extremely confident that the supply here would kick in be the end of June this year at the latest. He was also very confident that they’d be taking 25mmcf/d for the 2nd half of this year. So the new 25 MM for/day is worth 20p.

Add today’s price of 17p to the new 20p and we have 37p. On top of that, surely we’re going to see new customers added in Niger and more news on first oil from EPS in Niger along with a new drilling schedule for some of the already mapped 146 targets.

So we can already see around 37p plus the existing momentum we now have, changing sentiment, stronger POO ($59.4), quite possibly new and existing II’s to pass 3% and the new customers in Nigeria/ oil updates in Niger. 37p + that lot must surely get us over the 47p hurdle and on the way to the second price of 68p.

Hot of the press...... Agadem reiterates a 2021 target price of 89p.

It does appear that the market has yet to digest the 22nd December Finance and Operations update containing the revised Lafarge GSA and the presentation flowing from that, highlighting the $4.3 billion revenue stream, with more to come both from other gas contracts and the oil business and of course the more than healthy margins on the gas business.
This options RNS is bound to alert many folk and I hope their research isn't completed before Monday morning.

I can live with those all day long following work achieved in last 6 months and believe new ones will be offered and set probably somewhere in-between £1 and the price you suggest Inter in the next 12-18 months and i won't be too displeased with those either.

Personally, I'm disappointed they didn't raise them to £1.47 and £1.68 ;-)

Thought that was excellent to be unchanged at 47p and 68p so a huge incentive.

See the CEO, VP & CFO taking shares instead of their expected cash bonuses - "These awards are being made at the request of the individuals who were seeking additional equity exposure, in lieu of payment of certain cash bonuses"

They haven’t changed the strike price!! Wow!

That is a huge RNS. How often do you see a review based of exceptional circumstances. They haven’t blamed covid, court cases or delay to 7.Just brilliant! Now what do I do for cynicism! Lol!

2018 agreement!!

“As per the terms of the New Share Scheme, the Options vest on a straight-line basis should the 30-day volume weighted average price ("VWAP") of the Company's shares at any point during a five-year period exceed a hurdle price of 47 pence, with 100% vesting on the VWAP reaching 68 pence. Shares received pursuant to the Options are subject to a three-month lock-in period, during which dealing in the shares is not permitted. For further details on the vesting and other conditions of the Options, please refer to page 92 of the Company's 2019 Annual Report (which can be found on the Company's website: www.savannah-energy.com). This scheme was approved by shareholders on 3 May 2018.”

Trek

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/savannah-energy-new-gas-contract-vadim-alexandre-on-covid-testing-stocks-russ-mould-on-silver-192910e/

AK put 4m of his own cash into SAVP, then added 1m cash in total after it became SAVE.

He actually mentioned in his recent excellent presentation that he had put in 5m.

Buffy

IGM the reason that AK made that very significant purchase is that he knows the detail of what is going to happen this year .We do not know the detailed position on issues such as Niger so whilst the market is guessing it is assigning zero value to Niger at the moment which I consider a very rare opportunity.

IGM, Institutions hold 55% as of 9/12/2020 but AK said in the investor presentation last week that others have been buying so probably a bit higher. AAK has just under 37m shares and , yes, he did recently but £692k worth.

Blimey, so in August alone he invested approx £692,000 unless I got that completely wrong, probably got my dot on the calculator in the wrong place LOL.

I see institutions are about 40% of the share register, I'm not sure if that is fairly average or not but looks very encouraging indeed to me.

https://www.lse.co.uk/DirectorsDeals.asp?shareprice=SAVE&share=Savannah-Energy

https://www.savannah-energy.com/major-shareholders

I know a lot of people not invested steer clear of this because of it being based in Nigeria, I have seen mention of CEO Andrew Knott having a large holding here.

This in no way guarantees anything but is clearly a very positive sign that he is prepared to risk his own money.

Just wondering if anyone can clarify how much he has put in - or is it the usual AIM thing where he has been given very cheap shares or free shares?

Just hoping he has genuinely put his money where his mouth is, so to speak.

Looks very positive news today BTW!

Hi Agadem,

“ my experience of AIM companies that they don’t usually give good news RNS out on Friday’s.”

That’s most people experience, but AK announced both the signing of the MOU with AIIM and the Zomo discovery in Niger on a Friday.

Maybe he just doesn’t have any bad news to RNS, so thought, why not?

I like Friday RNS’s as it gives the Sunday papers the opportunity to get the news out ready for the auction on Monday morning. The ‘Niger Programme resumption’ RNS would be worthy of an article for sure.

Buffy